Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - B" [6] Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" meeting for organic silicon has quickly shown results, with expectations for a joint production cut of 30% becoming more likely [1] - The domestic expansion of organic silicon production has ended, and overseas capacity is exiting, improving the competitive landscape [2] - Demand for organic silicon continues to grow, with new application areas expected to accelerate growth [3] Supply Summary - From 2019 to 2024, China's nominal capacity for organic silicon intermediates is projected to expand from 1.52 million tons to 3.44 million tons, with a CAGR of 17.8%. The large-scale capacity release is expected to cease [2] - Over the past five years, more than 300,000 tons/year of overseas capacity has exited due to high production costs in Europe and the U.S. and shifts in development focus, alleviating supply pressure [2] - The current inventory level is at 44,000 tons, which is relatively low for the year. If the planned 30% production cut is implemented, it could impact nearly 90,000 tons of supply monthly, potentially enhancing price elasticity [2] Demand Summary - As of 2024, the main downstream consumption of organic silicon in China is still in traditional sectors such as construction (25.2%), manufacturing (14.6%), and textiles (11.5%) [3] - Despite a decline in new construction area in the real estate sector affecting demand, the rise in demand from new energy, electronics, and semiconductors is expected to offset this decline [3] - The apparent consumption of organic silicon in China is projected to reach 1.816 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%. For the first nine months of 2025, consumption is expected to be 1.513 million tons, up 19.6% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in new application areas [3] Recommended Companies - Companies to watch include Dongyue Silicon Materials, Xin'an Chemical, Hoshine Silicon Industry, Xingfa Group, Sanyou Chemical, and Luxi Chemical [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the chemical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the peak of capacity expansion in the organic silicon industry has passed, leading to a gradual improvement in the supply-demand balance. The short-term disruptions in supply may facilitate a recovery in profitability for organic silicon [4][17][27] - Domestic demand for organic silicon is steadily increasing, driven by applications in construction, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles. The report anticipates significant contributions from the renewable energy sector [5][28][38] - The report emphasizes the continuous growth of organic silicon exports, with a projected year-on-year increase of 34.2% in 2024 [5][42] Summary by Sections 1. Organic Silicon: Product Performance and Applications - Organic silicon compounds exhibit excellent adhesive and sealing properties, temperature resistance, and weather resistance, making them suitable for various end-use applications [12][13] 2. Supply Side: Capacity Expansion Peak Passed - The organic silicon industry saw significant capacity additions from 2022 to 2024, with annual increases of 775,000 tons, 70,000 tons, and 720,000 tons, respectively. The growth rates were 41%, 3%, and 26% [4][17] - As of the end of 2024, the total capacity of the domestic organic silicon industry is expected to reach 3.44 million tons, with a concentration ratio (CR5) of 60% [17][20] 3. Demand Side: Steady Growth in Domestic and Export Markets - The apparent consumption of domestic organic silicon DMC is projected to grow from 893,200 tons in 2017 to 1,816,400 tons in 2024, with a CAGR of 10.7% [5][28] - The report notes that the construction sector, electronics, manufacturing, and textiles will account for 25.2%, 23.0%, 14.6%, and 11.5% of organic silicon DMC consumption in 2024, respectively [36] 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hoshine Silicon Industry and Xingfa Group, while suggesting that companies like Sanyou Chemical, Xin'an Chemical, Dongyue Silicon Material, and Luxi Chemical may benefit from the industry's recovery [6][45]