Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Although short - term bullish sentiment in the copper market has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may gradually turn into a sideways trend [3] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in a wide range in the short term [8] - After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [10] - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see [16][18] - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be adjusted in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to fundamental dynamics and wait and see [21] - It is recommended to wait and see for alumina in the short term. Focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] - The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [30] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**：Friday, U.S. stocks pulled back, and concerns about the AI technology bubble increased. LME copper 3M contract closed down 2.37% to $11,552/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,550 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 50 to 165,900 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined. In China, SHFE weekly inventories increased slightly [2] - **策略观点**：The Fed's interest - rate cut and the restart of Treasury bond purchases have made liquidity expectations marginally looser. The domestic central economic work conference set a positive policy tone. Although short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn into a sideways trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 90,800 - 92,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME copper 3M is 11,450 - 11,750 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **行情资讯**：The weakening of U.S. AI technology stocks intensified market concerns, and aluminum prices declined. On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 0.69% to $2,875/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,775 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 16,000 to 676,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased slightly to 69,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories declined [4] - **策略观点**：Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at low levels in the same period of previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and loose macro policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,600 - 22,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% to 17,134 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to $1,984.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 130 tons to 2,290 tons [7] - **策略观点**：Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead has declined marginally, the operating rate of secondary lead has continued to rise, and the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally. Domestic lead ingot social inventories remain at relatively low levels, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide - range in the short term [8] Zinc - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.68% to 23,621 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, zinc ingot social inventories decreased by 780 tons to 12,820 tons [9] - **策略观点**：Visible zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc concentrate TC continues to decline. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains [10] Tin - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 329,400 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous day. The start - up rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at a high level but lack upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the overall market trading is light. This week, the national main tin ingot social inventory was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12] - **策略观点**：Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited when downstream inventories are low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **行情资讯**：On Friday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 114,550 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron remained stable [15] - **策略观点**：Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. However, with the stabilization of nickel pig iron prices and the warming of the macro environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][18] Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 94,569 yuan, up 0.21% from the previous working day and 4.30% for the week [20] - **策略观点**：Currently, the market is divided on supply release and demand realization. In the short term, the supply - demand mismatch of domestic lithium carbonate has not been reversed. The probability of lithium prices being adjusted in a range is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 95,000 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.39% to 2,544 yuan/ton. The futures warrant on Friday was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day [23] - **策略观点**：After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine has resumed production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**：On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. Social inventories increased to 1.0636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**：The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is generally light. The supply pressure is expected to be further relieved. The stainless - steel market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation and lacking a clear direction in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**：On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy rose slightly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 0.72% to 21,115 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased by 20 tons to 4,890 tons [29] - **策略观点**：The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong support for prices. However, demand is relatively volatile, and delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation [30]