研究所 期货眼·日迹 期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2026 年 3 月 2 日 0 / 50 | | | | 蛋白粕：宏观扰动增加 | 价格整体高位 6 | | --- | --- | | 白糖：国际糖业下调全球糖产 | 国际糖价震荡 6 | | 油脂板块：地缘冲突升级，油脂波动或加大 7 | | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货上涨，盘面继续冲高 8 | | | 生猪：供应压力较大 | 价格继续下行 9 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面底部震荡 10 | | | 鸡蛋：节后进入淡季 | 蛋价稳中有落 10 | | 苹果：苹果需求有所好转 | 价格较为坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面有所支撑 | 棉价表现偏强 12 | | 钢材：地缘冲突爆发，钢价震荡跟涨 14 | | --- | | 双焦：地缘冲突加剧，可尝试逢低做多 14 | | 铁矿：地缘冲突加大，矿价震荡运行 15 | | 铁合金：陕西差别电价落地，震荡偏强 16 | | 金银：地缘冲突爆发，避险主导金银 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：中东地缘冲突升级 避险需求推升贵金属价格 18 | | 铜：短期高位盘整，回调后 ...

铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2026年03月01日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 精废价差小幅回落 ADC12-A00价差短期走弱 -2000 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 保太ADC12-A00 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 100 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Index**: In the short - term, the market rotation is accelerating, hot - plate persistence is poor, and trading volume is falling before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and there is still room for RRR and interest rate cuts. The central bank maintains an attitude of protecting funds, and bond market trading is expected to be stable. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the suppression of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The market is in a cautious short - covering and position - rebuilding stage after a technical oversold. It is recommended to wait and see, with the Shanghai gold main contract in the range of 1050 - 1300 yuan/gram and Shanghai silver in the range of 22000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram [11]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate, with some having upward or downward trends based on supply - demand, policy, and cost factors [14][16][21]. - **Black Building Materials**: The black - building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors at play. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track inventory changes, demand recovery, and policy adjustments [34]. - **Energy Chemicals**: Different energy - chemical products have different trends. For example, crude oil is recommended to take profits on rallies, and some products are affected by supply - demand, cost, and geopolitical factors [64][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, the short - term outlook for live pigs is pessimistic, while the long - term outlook for cotton is positive [87][102]. 3. Summary by Category Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The President of China had a phone call with the US President; a new satellite testing and launching technology plant was established; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aims to break through key technologies; the central bank focuses on credit market work [2]. - **Basis Annualized Ratio**: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have corresponding basis annualized ratios [3]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the short - term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: Contract prices changed on Wednesday; the central bank held a credit market meeting; the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 750 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 302.5 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: The bond market is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices rose; the US ADP data indicated a slowdown in the labor market; the US Treasury's refinancing statement affected the bond market [9][10]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver [11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: Copper prices fluctuated, LME copper inventory increased, and domestic spot was at a discount [13]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, with reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper [14]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices declined, and inventory and trading conditions changed [15]. - **Strategy**: If concerns about the US AI narrative ease, prices are expected to stabilize and rise, with reference price ranges [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: Zinc prices fluctuated, and inventory and basis data changed [17][18]. - **Strategy**: The price is following the sector to make up for the macro - attribute. The trading center may return to the industrial logic [18]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: Lead prices declined, and inventory and basis data changed [19]. - **Strategy**: The industry situation is weak, and the panic sentiment has eased to some extent [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and cost and supply - demand factors changed [20]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, with reference price ranges [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated, and supply, demand, and inventory factors changed [22]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot index rose, and the futures contract price declined [24]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see or take a small - position attempt, with a reference price range for the futures contract [25]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The index rose, and inventory and basis data changed [26][27]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range and key factors to watch [28]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [29]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a bullish view, with a reference price range [29]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price rebounded, and inventory and trading volume data changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The price is supported in the short - term [31]. Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose slightly, and inventory and trading volume data changed [33]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to track multiple factors [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [35]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to steel mill restocking and iron - making rhythms [36][37]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and spot and basis data changed [38]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and high - volatility risks [40][42]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [43]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, with a reference price range [44]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and inventory and trading volume data changed [45]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly and stably in the short - term, with a reference price range [46]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon** - **Market Information**: Prices rose slightly, and spot and basis data changed [47]. - **Strategy**: The market is affected by overall sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [51]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to production cuts and downstream adjustments [54]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and spot and inventory data changed [55]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is necessary to pay attention to meetings and spot transactions [56]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The price is determined by funds, and there are different views on supply and demand [58]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and consider a spread trading strategy [62]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: Futures prices rose [63]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [64]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [65]. - **Strategy**: The price has priced in most geopolitical premiums, and there is pressure on the upside [66]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: Spot and futures prices changed [68]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals [69]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: Prices rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is advisable to take profits gradually [70]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [71]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. Pay attention to production capacity and start - up changes [72][73]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [74]. - **Strategy**: There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the medium - term, but there is a risk of rebound in the short - term [75]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [76]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Be cautious of processing - fee corrections in the short - term and look for long - entry opportunities after the Spring Festival [77]. - **Para - xylene** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand, cost, and inventory data changed [78]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. Look for long - entry opportunities following crude oil in the medium - term [79]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [80]. - **Strategy**: The oil price may have bottomed out. The price is supported by reduced inventory, but the demand is in the off - season [81]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The futures price rose, and supply - demand and inventory data changed [82]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is relieved, and the price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. Consider going long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [84]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: Pig prices fell, and supply - demand factors changed [86]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the short - term, and pay attention to long - term support [87]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: Egg prices mostly fell, and supply - demand factors changed [88]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the near - term and long - term, with different logics [89]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fell slightly, and supply - demand data changed [90][91]. - **Strategy**: The short - term fundamentals are improving, and the price may be bottoming out [92]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: Futures prices fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [93][94]. - **Strategy**: The price may have bottomed out. Wait for a pull - back to go long [94]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The futures price rebounded slightly, and supply - demand data changed [95][98]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the northern hemisphere to finish the harvest in February. The domestic price may have limited downside, and it is advisable to wait and see [99]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The futures price fluctuated, and supply - demand data changed [100][101]. - **Strategy**: It fluctuates widely in the short - term and may rise in the long - term. Look for low - entry opportunities before the Spring Festival [102].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai is actively promoting the construction of an international trade center, with the futures market playing a crucial role in driving industrial transformation and upgrading [1] Group 1: Collaboration and Innovation - SYC New Materials Group, a leading company in the casting aluminum alloy industry, faces significant price volatility pressures and requires professional risk management tools [1] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures has established a deep collaboration with SYC, leveraging the listing of aluminum alloy futures to explore innovative applications of futures and derivatives in the industry [1] - The collaboration aims to help SYC effectively hedge price volatility risks, innovate trade pricing models, and promote coordinated development within the industry [1] Group 2: Service Solutions and Process - Shenyin Wanguo Futures has developed a comprehensive, multi-dimensional futures service plan for SYC, achieving three major innovations in operational mechanisms, collaboration models, and industry participation [2] - The company organized a professional service team to guide SYC in participating in the first-day trading of aluminum alloy futures, allowing SYC to quickly familiarize itself with the trading mechanisms and market characteristics [2] Group 3: Pricing Model and Trade Optimization - A new trade model combining "futures pricing + agreed premium/discount" was launched to address uncertainties in traditional spot trading caused by price fluctuations [3] - This model enhances transaction transparency and fairness, effectively mitigating profit losses from price volatility while improving trading efficiency [3] Group 4: Industry Participation and Ecosystem Integration - Shenyin Wanguo Futures is assisting SYC in initiating three core applications: futures industry base application, hedging quota application, and warehouse receipt registration application [4] - These initiatives aim to enhance the participation of upstream and downstream enterprises in the futures market and improve the overall risk management level of the industry [4] Group 5: Project Outcomes and Industry Impact - The innovative application of futures tools has allowed SYC to stabilize its production operations and avoid profit losses during significant market price fluctuations [5] - The new pricing model has gained widespread recognition among customers, leading to an increase in the number of cooperative clients and trading volume, significantly enhancing SYC's market competitiveness [5] - SYC's practices have been widely reported by industry associations and mainstream media, encouraging more enterprises in the industry chain to engage with the futures market [5] Group 6: Replicability and Broader Application - The project employs a clear process of "first-day trading participation + futures pricing + multi-dimensional applications," making it suitable for leading enterprises in the bulk commodity industry to replicate [7] - This model can be extended beyond aluminum alloys to other metal raw materials and bulk commodities, such as chemicals and agricultural products [7] - The collaboration model of "futures company + entity enterprise + risk management company" achieves precise matching of financial resources and industrial needs, providing a replicable cooperation paradigm for serving the real economy [7] Group 7: Leading Industry Development - The successful implementation of this project not only brings tangible benefits to SYC but also upgrades the risk management concepts across the entire casting aluminum alloy industry chain [8] - SYC is leading the formation of a trade ecosystem characterized by "shared risks and shared benefits" among upstream and downstream enterprises, injecting financial innovation into Shanghai's international trade center [8] - Shenyin Wanguo Futures plans to continue deepening its collaboration with SYC and promote the successful experiences of this case to more real enterprises, contributing to the high-quality development of the industry [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to rise further due to the marginal easing of liquidity in the US financial market, the continuous rise of precious metals, the weakening of the US dollar, and the tight supply of copper mines, but the accumulation of inventory may suppress the upward trend [1][2] - The aluminum price is expected to continue rising under the influence of the continuous rise of precious metals and the increase of copper price, despite the current high price and the off - season demand [4][5] - The lead price is driven by the marginal contraction of the domestic secondary lead supply and extremely low visible inventory, but the price shock caused by the departure of long - position funds in precious metals should be vigilant [7][8] - The zinc industry's fundamentals are still weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to the high sentiment in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors [9][10] - The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference, and it is recommended to wait and see [11][12][13] - The short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared, and it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] - The lithium carbonate price is affected by factors such as the change of spot pricing method and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see [18][19][20] - The alumina price is affected by factors such as the recovery of ore supply and over - capacity in the smelting end. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction [22][23] - The stainless steel price may rise further if the nickel ore supply quota is tightened. It is recommended to consider buying at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [25][26] - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to the strong cost and supply disruptions [28][29] Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME was closed. Driven by supply - side disturbances and the rise of precious metals, the copper price continued to strengthen, and the Shanghai copper price exceeded the 100,000 - yuan mark. The weekly inventory of SHFE copper increased by 16,000 tons to 112,000 tons, and the daily warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 59,000 tons. The spot discount in the Shanghai and Guangdong regions expanded, and the downstream operating rate decreased [1] - **Strategy View**: The copper price is expected to rise further, but the impact of inventory accumulation on the upward trend should be noted. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M, it is 12,400 - 13,000 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Affected by the warm macro - sentiment, the high prices of precious metals and copper, the aluminum price fluctuated upward. The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rose 0.58% to 22,405 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased by 20,000 to 674,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased slightly to 77,000 tons. The domestic inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased. The spot discount in the East China region was 190 yuan/ton, and the year - end spot trading was still weak [4] - **Strategy View**: The current high aluminum price and the off - season demand lead to an increase in inventory, but the low inventory pattern of LME aluminum remains unchanged. The aluminum price is expected to rise further. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,200 - 22,700 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,920 - 3,000 US dollars/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose 1.37% to 17,548 yuan/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 11,600 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 17,000 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [7] - **Strategy View**: The primary lead supply is loose, and the secondary lead supply contracts marginally. The lead market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the domestic visible inventory is at an absolute low and continues to decline. The lead price is expected to be strong, but the price shock caused by precious metals should be vigilant [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.49% to 23,192 yuan/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 23,200 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,100 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased by 7,700 tons to 111,600 tons. The LME was closed for Christmas [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory declines, and the zinc smelting profit stabilizes. The zinc industry's fundamentals are weak, but the Shanghai zinc price may rise due to sector sentiment [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 338,550 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable at a high level but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the spot trading is light [11][12] - **Strategy View**: The short - term tin price is expected to fluctuate with the market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME tin, it is 39,000 - 43,000 US dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded slightly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 126,750 yuan/ton, up 1.10%. The spot premium of various brands was stable. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose slightly [15] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but the short - term bottom of the nickel price may have appeared due to the expected tax on cobalt in Indonesia. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 110,000 - 135,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract, it is 13,000 - 16,000 US dollars/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.56% to 120,913 yuan, up 15.08% for the week. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The LC2601 contract closed at 130,520 yuan, up 5.67%, and up 17.16% for the week. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [18][19] - **Strategy View**: The change of spot pricing method by Tianqi Lithium and the concentrated maintenance of leading enterprises are beneficial to the restoration of spot valuation. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 127,000 - 134,000 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 26, 2025, the alumina index rose 5.23% to 2,748 yuan/ton. The position increased by 25,200 to 644,900 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, with a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas price was stable. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 300 tons to 160,800 tons. The ore price was stable [22] - **Strategy View**: The ore price is expected to decline after the rainy season in Guinea and the resumption of the AXIS mine. The over - capacity in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production reduction. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [23] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. The position decreased by 11,745 to 182,700 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi were stable. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 607 tons. The social inventory decreased to 1,005,100 tons, a decrease of 3.55% [25][26] - **Strategy View**: Driven by the Indonesian nickel ore quota plan in 2026, the stainless steel price continued to rise last week. The inventory decreased, and the cost was supported. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is recommended to buy at low prices and pay attention to policy implementation [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rose first and then fell. The main AD2602 contract rose 0.21% to 21,390 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 21,700 lots, and the trading volume increased significantly. The warehouse receipts decreased by 100 tons to 70,400 tons. The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 300 tons to 46,300 tons [28] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and the supply is disturbed. The short - term price is expected to be strong [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is not overly pessimistic. Fed's policy and domestic economic work conference set a positive tone. Different metals have different price trends based on supply - demand and other factors. For short - term trading, it is recommended to be cautious and mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [4][7] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**: US November non - farm data was better than expected, unemployment data was worse than expected, and the US dollar index declined. LME copper 3M contract closed down 0.57% to $11,619/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,830 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 725 to 166,600 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.4 to 46,000 tons [3] - **策略观点**: Fed's bond - buying makes liquidity expectations marginally loose, and the domestic central economic work conference has a positive policy tone. The copper ore supply is tight, the refined copper supply is expected to increase, but the downstream operating rate is stable. Short - term copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the SHFE copper main contract operating range of 91,200 - 93,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M at $11,500 - 11,800/ton [4] Aluminum - **行情资讯**: South32's Mozal aluminum plant will enter maintenance in March 2026. LME aluminum closed up 0.26% to $2,882/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,825 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 625,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,000 to 77,000 tons. Global aluminum inventories are at a relatively low level [6] - **策略观点**: Global aluminum inventories are decreasing, with support from overseas supply disruptions and loose macro - policies. Although there are some negative factors, if inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices may rise after adjustment. The SHFE aluminum main contract operating range is 21,700 - 22,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is at $2,850 - 2,910/ton [7] Lead - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE lead index closed down 1.07% to 16,840 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 82,500 lots. LME lead 3S fell by $27 to $1,944/ton, and the total position was 180,500 lots. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 80 tons to 23,700 tons [9] - **策略观点**: Lead ore inventory is basically stable, the operating rate of primary lead is declining, and that of secondary lead is rising. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate is rising. The domestic lead ingot social inventory is at a relatively low level, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide range in the short term [10] Zinc - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the SHFE zinc index closed down 1.74% to 23,045 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position was 207,500 lots. LME zinc 3S fell by $91 to $3,063/ton, and the total position was 236,000 lots. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased by 2,500 tons to 125,700 tons [11] - **策略观点**: The visible inventory of zinc ore is decreasing, and the TC of zinc concentrate is declining. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is decreasing, and the LME zinc inventory is slowly increasing. After the non - ferrous metals sentiment fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains. The Fed's policy stimulus is limited before March 18 next year [12] Tin - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 320,620 yuan/ton, down 2.07%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined in the off - season, and the high tin price suppresses downstream purchasing willingness. The national main social inventory of tin ingots increased by 311 tons to 8,245 tons last week [13] - **策略观点**: Although the current tin market demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, due to low downstream inventory, the bargaining power is limited. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract operating range is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is at $39,000 - 43,000/ton [14] Nickel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, down 2.09%. The spot premium of various brands was stable, and the price of nickel ore was stable, while the price of nickel iron weakened [16] - **策略观点**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. The price of refined nickel has dropped significantly, and the premium of refined nickel has reached the support level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M is at $13,000 - 15,500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **行情资讯**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 97,569 yuan, up 1.35%. The LC2605 contract closed at 100,600 yuan, down 0.46% [20] - **策略观点**: The lithium carbonate market opened high and closed low. There are differences in the market regarding supply release and demand realization. The probability of a weak adjustment in the lithium price range is relatively high. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 97,800 - 103,200 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**: On December 16, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.15% to 2,606 yuan/ton, and the total long - short position decreased by 6,000 to 606,000 lots. The Shandong spot price dropped by 5 yuan/ton to 2,670 yuan/ton, with a premium of 129 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,400 tons to 246,200 tons [23] - **策略观点**: After the rainy season, the shipment from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is复产. The alumina smelting capacity is in excess, and the inventory is increasing. However, the current price is close to most manufacturers' cost lines, and the probability of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,320 yuan/ton, down 1.28%. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures inventory decreased by 1,018 tons. The social inventory increased to 1.0636 million tons, a decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**: The stainless - steel market is in the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The raw material price has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to ease. The market is in a tight balance, and prices fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [26] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**: The main AD2602 contract of cast aluminum alloy closed down 0.33% to 20,950 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 29,000 lots, and the trading volume was 5,700 lots. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly to 48,800 tons [29] - **策略观点**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and there are continuous supply - side disruptions, providing support for prices. However, demand is unstable, and there is交割 pressure. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [30]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report's Core View - Although short - term bullish sentiment in the copper market has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may gradually turn into a sideways trend [3] - Aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment [5] - Lead prices are expected to be weak in a wide range in the short term [8] - After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, Shanghai zinc may give back some of its gains [10] - Short - term tin prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - Short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see [16][18] - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be adjusted in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to fundamental dynamics and wait and see [21] - It is recommended to wait and see for alumina in the short term. Focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] - The stainless - steel market is in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation. It is recommended to wait and see [27] - Cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation in the short term [30] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **行情资讯**：Friday, U.S. stocks pulled back, and concerns about the AI technology bubble increased. LME copper 3M contract closed down 2.37% to $11,552/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 91,550 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 50 to 165,900 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio declined. In China, SHFE weekly inventories increased slightly [2] - **策略观点**：The Fed's interest - rate cut and the restart of Treasury bond purchases have made liquidity expectations marginally looser. The domestic central economic work conference set a positive policy tone. Although short - term bullish sentiment has cooled, the risk of continuous decline in copper prices is small, and it may turn into a sideways trend. The operating range of SHFE copper main contract is 90,800 - 92,800 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME copper 3M is 11,450 - 11,750 dollars/ton [3] Aluminum - **行情资讯**：The weakening of U.S. AI technology stocks intensified market concerns, and aluminum prices declined. On Friday, LME aluminum closed down 0.69% to $2,875/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 21,775 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 16,000 to 676,000 lots, and futures warrants decreased slightly to 69,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories in three regions decreased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories declined [4] - **策略观点**：Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at low levels in the same period of previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and loose macro policies, aluminum prices are strongly supported. If inventories continue to decline, aluminum prices are still expected to rise further after a sideways adjustment. The operating range of SHFE aluminum main contract is 21,600 - 22,000 yuan/ton; the operating range of LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [5] Lead - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE lead index closed down 0.14% to 17,134 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME lead 3S fell 4.5 to $1,984.5/ton. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots increased slightly by 130 tons to 2,290 tons [7] - **策略观点**：Lead ore inventories are basically flat, the operating rate of primary lead has declined marginally, the operating rate of secondary lead has continued to rise, and the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises has increased marginally. Domestic lead ingot social inventories remain at relatively low levels, but the SHFE lead monthly spread remains low. It is expected that lead prices will be weak in a wide - range in the short term [8] Zinc - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index closed up 2.68% to 23,621 yuan/ton. As of 15:00 on Friday, LME zinc 3S rose 104 to $3,191.5/ton. According to Shanghai Non - Ferrous Metals data, zinc ingot social inventories decreased by 780 tons to 12,820 tons [9] - **策略观点**：Visible zinc ore inventories are decreasing, zinc concentrate TC continues to decline. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories are decreasing, and LME zinc ingot inventories are slowly increasing. After the sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market fades, SHFE zinc may give back some of its gains [10] Tin - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 329,400 yuan/ton, down 0.75% from the previous day. The start - up rates of tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at a high level but lack upward momentum. The demand for tin ingots has declined, and the overall market trading is light. This week, the national main tin ingot social inventory was 8,245 tons, an increase of 311 tons from last week [12] - **策略观点**：Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the bargaining power is limited when downstream inventories are low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate following market risk appetite. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 335,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin operating range is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [13] Nickel - **行情资讯**：On Friday, nickel prices were weak. The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 114,550 yuan/ton, down 0.70% from the previous day. The prices of nickel ore and nickel pig iron remained stable [15] - **策略观点**：Currently, the oversupply pressure of nickel is still large. However, with the stabilization of nickel pig iron prices and the warming of the macro environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a sideways trend. It is advisable to wait and see. The short - term operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and the operating range of LME nickel 3M contract is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16][18] Carbonate Lithium - **行情资讯**：Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 94,569 yuan, up 0.21% from the previous working day and 4.30% for the week [20] - **策略观点**：Currently, the market is divided on supply release and demand realization. In the short term, the supply - demand mismatch of domestic lithium carbonate has not been reversed. The probability of lithium prices being adjusted in a range is relatively high. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to fundamental dynamics. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 95,000 - 100,600 yuan/ton [21] Alumina - **行情资讯**：On December 12, 2025, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.39% to 2,544 yuan/ton. The futures warrant on Friday was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons from the previous trading day [23] - **策略观点**：After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine has resumed production. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton. It is necessary to focus on supply - side policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [24] Stainless Steel - **行情资讯**：On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,565 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. Social inventories increased to 1.0636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.55% [26] - **策略观点**：The stainless - steel market has entered the traditional off - season, and the trading atmosphere is generally light. The supply pressure is expected to be further relieved. The stainless - steel market is currently in a tight - balance pattern, with prices showing a wide - range fluctuation and lacking a clear direction in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **行情资讯**：On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy rose slightly. The main AD2602 contract closed up 0.72% to 21,115 yuan/ton. Domestic three - region aluminum alloy ingot inventories decreased by 20 tons to 4,890 tons [29] - **策略观点**：The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong support for prices. However, demand is relatively volatile, and delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. Short - term cast aluminum alloy prices may maintain a range - bound fluctuation [30]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with the Brent 01 contract rising 1.41%. The Russia-Ukraine geopolitical risk is entangled between sanctions and peace talks. Supply and demand face greater inventory accumulation expectations in Q4 and Q1 next year, and the downward drive for oil prices remains. Focus on the progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace plan negotiation and the Venezuelan geopolitical risk [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals rose. As several Fed officials advocated a December rate cut, the implied rate cut probability in the interest rate market rose to 80%. The market is uncertain, and precious metals are oscillating at high levels waiting for a directional breakthrough [2] Copper - Overnight copper prices oscillated. LME copper rose with precious metals at the end of the session. The domestic spot market has a certain bullish sentiment, and the SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 million tons to 18.06 million tons [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and bars decreased by 0.8 million tons on Monday. The aluminum price may continue to adjust, with support around 21,100 yuan [4] Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. It will operate weakly before large-scale production cuts [5] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of Baotai ADC12 remained at 20,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and it will continue to follow the aluminum price, with the possibility of a narrowing spread with AL [6] Zinc - Domestic and overseas mine TC continued to decline. SHFE zinc oscillated in the range of 22,200 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The external demand supports zinc consumption, but the domestic demand is expected to weaken [7] Lead - SHFE lead oscillated in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. The export of lead-acid batteries is expected to remain under pressure [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel rebounded, and stainless steel inventory decreased. However, the short-term contradiction lies in the macro level, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [9] Tin - LME tin closed higher, and SHFE tin oscillated at high levels. It is still advisable to short, and at the same time, match with out-of-the-money call options to hedge risks [10] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower. The market is highly divergent, and risk control should be prioritized [11] Polysilicon - The fundamentals of polysilicon are weak. The futures price will maintain an oscillating pattern [12] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly lower. It will maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term [13] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures oscillated strongly overnight. The fundamentals are marginally looser, and the price is expected to oscillate [15] Coke - The coke price oscillated. It may oscillate weakly [16] Coking Coal - The coking coal price oscillated weakly. It may oscillate weakly [17] Manganese Silicon - The manganese silicon price oscillated. The bottom support is expected to move down [18] Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price oscillated. The bottom support will be tested [19] Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - Both high-sulfur and low-sulfur fuel oils face pressure from abundant supply and weak demand [21] Asphalt - The asphalt price is expected to oscillate weakly under pressure [22] Group 2: Chemicals Urea - Urea supply remains sufficient. The market may return to a stalemate [23] Methanol - The methanol futures rose sharply. It is advisable to try to go long on the 5 - 9 spread at low prices [24] Pure Benzene - It is advisable to continue the idea of shorting on rebounds and consider option allocation [25] Styrene - The supply and demand of styrene are in a tight balance, but the support from the cost and demand sides is questionable [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - The market lacks guidance. Polyethylene supply pressure increases, and polypropylene supply is expected to increase slightly [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC may follow the cost. Caustic soda will operate weakly [28] PX and PTA - PX is still strong before new capacity is put into production. PTA is driven by cost [29] Ethylene Glycol - The ethylene glycol price has a short-term rebound expectation, but the rebound space is limited [30] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short fiber prices fluctuate with raw materials. Bottle chip is cost-driven [31] Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures rebounded. Pay attention to the impact of La Niña on South American soybean production [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil will oscillate in the short term. Palm oil is weaker [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed market focuses on Australian seeds. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [37] Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybeans rebounded strongly. Pay attention to the spot market and policy guidance [38] Corn - The corn futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the sales progress of new corn in the Northeast [39] Live Hogs - The far-month hog futures rose, and the near-month is weak. The price may form a double bottom [40] Eggs - The number of newly laid hens is expected to decrease in December. Pay attention to the spot price [41] Cotton - The cotton futures may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to wait and see [42] Sugar - The international sugar supply is sufficient. Pay attention to the production in India, Thailand, and Guangxi [43] Apples - The apple futures oscillated at a high level. Pay attention to the inventory removal [44] Wood - The wood futures oscillated. It is advisable to wait and see [45] Pulp - The pulp futures fell slightly. It is advisable to wait and see [46] Group 4: Financial Futures Stock Index Futures - A-shares rose in a shrinking volume. The short-term macro liquidity is uncertain. It is advisable to wait and see [47] Treasury Bond Futures - The treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The yield curve may flatten slightly [48] Group 5: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - The SCFIS European route index rose sharply. The 02 contract may maintain a discount [20]