Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is awaiting Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday to verify the reasonableness of bets on a September interest rate cut. Due to the sharp rebound in the US PPI and the resilience of retail data, there are concerns that Powell may adopt a hawkish stance, leading to cautious trading sentiment. However, the interference with the Fed's independence by Trump's call for Cook to resign has weakened the US dollar and provided a rebound opportunity for precious metals. In the future, the potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation under tariff shocks supports precious metals, and it is expected that precious metals will continue to trade in a high-range oscillation pattern. [2][3] - For copper, the market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech at the "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting." Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [5][9] - Alumina's price is reverting to fundamentals as market speculation cools. Although the overall supply-demand situation remains in surplus, short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [11][13][15] - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [18][21] - In the case of casting aluminum alloy, the supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [26][27] - Zinc prices are under pressure due to the continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption, leading to a build-up in social inventory. [29][32] - Lead prices are likely to trade in a range due to weak supply and demand. The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. [35][36][39] - Nickel prices are expected to trade in a wide range due to the large supply surplus and the lack of clear short-term supply-demand contradictions. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. [41][42][43] - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range, with limited upward momentum due to weak demand and downward support from cost factors. The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. [47] - Industrial silicon prices are expected to trade in a range, with the core contradiction being the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. [50][51][52] - Polysilicon prices are expected to trade in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Although the fundamental situation is bearish due to oversupply in August, the price is supported by cost factors. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [54][55][56] - Carbonate lithium prices are expected to rebound after a significant decline. The market overreacted to negative news, but the supply-demand situation may tighten in September due to reduced imports. The price is recommended to be bought after a sufficient correction. [58][60][61] - Tin prices are expected to continue to trade in an oscillatory pattern. The market is in a state of tight balance with weak supply and demand. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is expected to be delayed until the fourth quarter. [63][65][66] Summary by Directory Precious Metals Market Review - London gold rose 0.94% to $3,347.335 per ounce, and London silver rose 1.44% to $37.855 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also closed higher. The US dollar index fell 0.05% to 98.218, the 10-year US Treasury yield declined to 4.2868%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.08% to 7.177. [2] Important News - Trump called on Fed Governor Cook to resign, and Cook refused. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most officials believed it was appropriate to keep interest rates unchanged, but more officials were open to a September rate cut after the August 1 employment report. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 18.1%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 81.9%. Israel has not responded to the ceasefire proposal from Hamas. [2] Logic Analysis - The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The interference with the Fed's independence has weakened the US dollar and supported precious metals. The potential for the US to enter a "stagflation-like" situation supports precious metals in the future. [3] Trading Strategy - Go long on dips near the 5-day moving average for single positions, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [3] Copper Market Review - The night session of the SHFE copper 2509 contract closed at 78,730 yuan/ton, up 0.19%, and the LME copper closed at $9,721 per ton, up 0.38%. The LME inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 156,300 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 593 tons to 270,500 tons. [5] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. Codelco will lower its 2025 production guidance due to an accident at its El Teniente mine. China's imports of copper scrap, copper ore, and refined copper in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. [5][7][8] Logic Analysis - The market focuses on the future interest rate cut rhythm and Powell's speech. Domestically, the anti-involution sentiment has subsided, and commodities have generally declined. Fundamentally, the supply of copper ore has been temporarily alleviated, but the increase in LME inventory and the potential inflow of imported goods may put pressure on prices. Demand remains weak, with low restocking enthusiasm from end-users. [9] Trading Strategy - Copper prices are under pressure due to short-term supply increases. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [9] Alumina Market Review - The night session of the alumina 2509 contract rose 46 yuan to 3,155 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. [11] Important News - A large aluminum plant in the northwest made a large-scale spot purchase, which led to a slight decline in spot prices. The national alumina production capacity and operating rate increased slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased by 2,997 tons to 75,050 tons. Overseas, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $369 per ton FOB Australia for September shipment. China's alumina exports and imports in July increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The import of bauxite also increased significantly. [11][12][13] Logic Analysis - The market speculation sentiment has cooled, and the price is reverting to fundamentals. The supply-demand situation remains in surplus, but short-term supply disruptions due to maintenance plans at some alumina plants may limit price declines. Attention should be paid to the support of the futures price from the expected regression of the basis after it turns positive. [13][15] Trading Strategy - Alumina prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [16] Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night session of the SHFE aluminum 2509 contract rose 70 yuan to 20,590 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions declined. [18] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported keeping interest rates unchanged. There are discussions about a potential meeting between Trump, Putin, and Zelensky. The main market electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 0.6 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,529 tons to 62,938 tons. A 600,000-ton electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia has entered the construction phase. China's aluminum ingot imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. A project in Inner Mongolia is expected to be completed by the end of the year. [18][19][21] Logic Analysis - The macro environment is affected by the progress of the Russia-Ukraine issue and the anticipation of Powell's speech. Domestically, the "anti-involution" sentiment is waning. Fundamentally, the increase in aluminum rod production and the decline in aluminum ingot factory inventories have reduced the pressure on social inventory, and low inventory levels may make domestic aluminum prices relatively more resistant to decline compared to the international market. [21] Trading Strategy - Aluminum prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern in the short term. Consider a long SHFE aluminum and short LME aluminum arbitrage if the Russia-Ukraine issue continues to ease, and exit if the talks are not successful. Pay attention to the widening of the contango when the domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases. Stay on the sidelines for options trading. [22] Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night session of the casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 45 yuan to 20,090 yuan/ton. The spot prices in different regions remained stable. [24] Important News - A policy document may affect the recycling aluminum industry. The weighted average full cost of the Chinese casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry in July increased slightly compared to June, and the industry's theoretical profit increased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions increased slightly. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply is tightening due to the shortage of scrap aluminum, production cuts in some factories, and reduced imports. Demand remains weak, with downstream enterprises mainly engaging in just-in-time procurement. [27] Trading Strategy - Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to trade in a weak oscillatory pattern. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [28] Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market rose 0.58% to $2,786 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2510 contract rose 0.41% to 22,300 yuan/ton. The spot prices in Shanghai remained stable, and the downstream showed a wait-and-see attitude. [29] Important News - China's zinc concentrate imports in July increased significantly compared to the previous month and the same period last year. The exports of galvanized sheets increased slightly, while the exports of zinc oxide and die-cast zinc alloy decreased significantly. The safety inspections in northern lead-zinc mines have increased, but there is no direct impact on production for now. [29][30][31] Logic Analysis - The continuous increase in domestic supply and weak terminal consumption have led to a build-up in social inventory, putting pressure on zinc prices. [32] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the domestic social inventory situation. If there is a significant build-up, zinc prices may decline further. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [33] Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.33% to $1,980.5 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2510 contract rose 0.18% to 16,775 yuan/ton. The spot price of SMM1 lead declined, and the downstream battery production enterprises mainly made just-in-time purchases. [35] Important News - China's lead-acid battery imports and exports in July showed different trends compared to the previous month and the same period last year. Some secondary lead smelters lowered their purchase prices, but the arrival of scrap lead was not significantly improved. The LME received a registration application for a new lead brand. [35] Logic Analysis - The consumption of lead-acid batteries is sluggish, and the losses of secondary lead smelters are widening, leading to an expansion in production cuts. The supply and demand are both weak, and lead prices are likely to trade in a range. [36][39] Trading Strategy - Trade lead prices in a range by selling high and buying low. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading. [39] Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell $15 to $15,045 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 18 tons to 209,346 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2510 rose 180 yuan to 120,370 yuan/ton. The premiums of different nickel products showed different changes. [41] Important News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that only two officials voted against keeping interest rates unchanged. NATO discussed Ukraine's security guarantee issue. The global refined nickel supply was in surplus in June and from January to June. [41][42] Logic Analysis - The large supply surplus limits the upward movement of nickel prices. The increase in refined nickel imports in July did not result in a corresponding increase in domestic inventory, suggesting the accumulation of invisible inventory. The short-term supply-demand situation is balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a wide range. [43][45] Trading Strategy - Sell out-of-the-money put options. [45] Stainless Steel Market Review - The main contract SS2510 remained unchanged at 12,830 yuan/ton. The spot prices of cold-rolled and hot-rolled stainless steel remained stable. [47] Important News - A 600,000-set carbon steel and stainless steel high-end precision casting project started construction. The stainless steel inventory in Foshan decreased slightly. [47] Logic Analysis - The global economic outlook, tariff policies, and Fed decisions continue to influence the market. The concentration of steel mill maintenance in August and the subsequent planned resumptions have increased the sales pressure. The increase in the nickel iron price provides cost support, but the lack of demand limits the upward movement of prices. [47] Trading Strategy - Stainless steel prices are expected to trade in a wide range. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [48] Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures price declined due to the fall in coking coal and polysilicon prices. The spot prices also decreased. [51] Important News - A new product of a subsidiary of Xin'an Co., Ltd. was included in the list of excellent industrial new products in Zhejiang Province. [51] Logic Analysis - The core contradiction in the industrial silicon market is the change in sentiment and fundamental expectations. The market is influenced by the prices of coking coal and polysilicon, and the potential increase in production by leading manufacturers at the end of the month. The supply and demand situation is relatively balanced, and prices are expected to trade in a range. [52] Trading Strategy - Trade industrial silicon prices in the range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton by buying on dips near the lower end of the range. Consider a reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. [52] Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures price fell and then rebounded after the limit-down of lithium carbonate.，The spot prices increased slightly. [54][55] Important News - Trump stated that his government will not approve photovoltaic or wind power projects. [55] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon production in August is expected to be in surplus, but the price is supported by cost factors. The previous low price level provides strong support, and the high price level is limited by the potential large-scale selling for delivery. The futures price is recommended to be bought on dips. [55] Trading Strategy - Buy polysilicon futures on dips in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton. Consider a positive arbitrage between the 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out-of-the-money put options and buy call options. [56] Carbonate Lithium Market Review - The carbonate lithium futures price hit the limit-down, and the spot prices remained stable. [58] Important News - A Chilean lithium producer expects an increase in sales in the third quarter and plans to submit an environmental research report for a lithium project next year. The government exposed two cases of tax fraud in the "new three" fields. The retail and wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in August showed growth compared to the same period last year and the previous month. [58][60] Logic Analysis - The sharp decline in carbonate lithium prices was due to market overreaction to negative news and the exit of large funds. However, the supply-demand situation may tighten in

宏观 宏观：国内经济增长稳中有进，流动性环境宽松，央行明确消费贷贴息、育儿补贴等扩内需 政策落地，叠加反内卷政策推动部分行业供给收缩，企业盈利预期修复。 市场分析：价格方面，中小盘领涨，大盘蓝筹跟涨，金融权重拖累，成长风格占优。基差方 面，近月合约普遍升水，远月合约基差扩大。 参考观点：关注短期关键压力位波动风险，可通过看跌期权或看涨期权构建备兑交易，抵御 价格波动风险。 原油 宏观与地缘：市场炒作美联储 9 月降息，同时美元指数从 100 压力位下探，给原油一定托底 作用。但市场担忧美国夏季需求情况，同时 OPEC＋９月会议或加速增产。关注美俄谈判进 展，或一定程度上解除之前市场对俄罗斯原油供给方面的担忧。 市场分析：三大机构月报陆续放出供给大幅增加的预期，IEA 预测供给增量将三倍大于需求 增量，美国页岩油产量仍有增加潜力，同时 OEPC+已经明确增产信号，后市需要关注 OPEC+9 月会议是否加大增产力度。同时，美国为代表的非 OEPC 产油国整体增产，原油市场供给相 对充裕。另一方面，原油需求端面临较大不确定性，美国关税谈判进展情况或对全球经济带 来较大的重塑影响，需密切关注全球经贸活动的变化，以及美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Copper: With a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate - cut expectations and a slowdown in the rally of the domestic equity market, the sentiment has weakened slightly. The copper raw material supply remains tight with significant short - term supply disruptions, strongly supporting copper prices. However, the expected increase in supply after the implementation of US copper tariffs poses an upward pressure. Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly [1]. - Aluminum: The domestic commodity atmosphere is still supported by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and the tariff's marginal impact remains to be seen. The overall sentiment is neutral. Domestically, aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively low level, and the rebound in export data indicates strong external demand, firmly supporting aluminum prices. Downstream consumption is weak, and the volatile trade situation exerts pressure. Short - term aluminum prices are likely to oscillate [3]. - Lead: In August, the port inventory of lead ore has increased, and the operating rate of primary lead has recovered. The raw material inventory of secondary lead remains low, and its operating rate is slowly rising. Lead ingot social inventory has increased again. Downstream consumption is under great pressure, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has dropped rapidly. There may be structural disturbances in the LME market, and there is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. - Zinc: The zinc ore inventory accumulation has slowed down, TC has continued to rise, and the zinc ore supply remains loose. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has continued to increase, the smelter's production plan is high, and downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement. The domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The LME market's structural disturbances are gradually subsiding, and zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. - Tin: The expectation of tin ore supply recovery has strengthened, and the tin ore output is expected to be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. However, the smelter still faces short - term raw material supply pressure. Domestic consumption in the off - season has been poor, while overseas demand driven by AI computing power has been strong. Short - term supply and demand are both weak, and tin prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - Nickel: The short - term macro - atmosphere is positive, and the prices of stainless steel and nickel - iron have strengthened, driving a slight rebound in nickel prices. However, the improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is still pressure for price correction [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The marginal improvement in supply is the focus of the market. News disturbances significantly affect the market sentiment, and the uncertainty of capital games is high. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [10][11]. - Alumina: The supply disturbances of domestic and foreign ores continue, which is expected to support ore prices. However, the over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. After the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market fades, it is recommended to short at high levels [13]. - Stainless Steel: The upward movement of stainless steel futures prices is blocked, leading to increased market wait - and - see sentiment and decreased trading activity. Some product prices have slightly declined. The market demand has not shown an obvious recovery, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is still in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. The cost side provides strong support recently, but the upward price space is relatively limited due to the large difference between futures and spot prices [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed flat at $9777/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78940 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 25 to 155850 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased by 0.6 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: Short - term copper prices may oscillate strongly, with the SHFE copper main contract running in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9680 - 9850/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum rose 0.59% to $2624/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20760 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic mainstream consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 58.8 tons [3]. - Price Outlook: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20600 - 20850 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2590 - 2650/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index fell 0.92% to 16778 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $1983.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 6.68 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: There is a certain short - term risk of decline [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index fell 0.59% to 22488 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2817/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to increase to 12.92 tons [5]. - Price Outlook: Zinc prices still face a large risk of decline [5]. Tin - Price: SHFE tin main contract closed at 267420 yuan/ton, down 0.89% [6]. - Inventory: SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 8 tons to 7422 tons, and LME inventory increased by 50 tons to 1830 tons [6]. - Price Outlook: Short - term tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 34000/ton for LME tin [6]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices declined and adjusted [8]. - Price Outlook: Short - term nickel prices may rebound slightly but still face correction pressure, with the SHFE nickel main contract running in the range of 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index rose 1.22% to 82832 yuan, and the LC2511 contract closed at 85300 yuan, up 0.24% [10]. - Production and Inventory: This week's domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 2.2% to 19980 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 162 tons to 142256 tons [10]. - Price Outlook: The futures contract of Guangzhou Futures Exchange is expected to run in the range of 82400 - 88800 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index fell 0.98% to 3222 yuan/ton [13]. - Inventory: Thursday's futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.87 tons to 5.17 tons [13]. - Price Outlook: It is recommended to short at high levels after the short - term bullish sentiment fades, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13025 yuan/ton, down 0.80% [15]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased to 107.89 tons, a 2.48% decrease [15]. - Price Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract fell 0.3% to 20140 yuan/ton [16]. - Inventory: The domestic mainstream consumption area's recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 tons to 3.52 tons [16]. - Price Outlook: The upward price space is relatively limited [16].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions, important information, logical analysis, and trading strategies of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Overall, the uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall. Other metals are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and market sentiment, showing different trends and investment suggestions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell 1.3% to $3386.7 per ounce after three - day gains, London silver fell 0.12% to $39.216 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.78% to 785.26 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures fell 0.36% to 9431 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.214, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.39%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.21% to 7.1547 [3]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in trade negotiations between the US and other major economies, and the Federal Reserve's situation has eased market risk - aversion. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 2.6%. In September, the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 37.2%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 61.2% [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The uncertainty of US tariffs and policies will bring inflation rebound and economic slowdown, and the independence of the Federal Reserve is also unknown. Precious metals are expected to remain in a pattern of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions based on the 5 - day moving average for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [5][6][7]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 79680 yuan per ton, down 0.16%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 1404 lots to 513,000 lots. The overnight LME copper closed at $9933.5 per ton, up 0.36%. The LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 125,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 418 tons to 244,000 tons [9][10]. - **Important Information**: The output of Vale and MMG's copper mines increased. Kazakhstan plans to double copper production by 2030, and a Canadian mining company hopes its project will be put into production in 2030. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st, with a 50% tariff rate [13][14][15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - term market has increased expectations for a new round of supply - side reform and anti - deflation, and copper prices are running strongly. Supply is high, and it is in the consumption off - season, with limited upside potential [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Copper prices are expected to run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [16]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3366 yuan per ton. The spot price in the north rose, and the national weighted index also increased [18]. - **Important Information**: Policies to eliminate backward production capacity are about to be released. There were spot transactions in Shandong and Vietnam. The alumina warehouse receipts on July 23 were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. The production of some factories in Shanxi has changed [19][20][21]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but details are yet to be determined. The current warehouse receipts are at a low level. If the increase in warehouse receipts is limited, the alumina price will still be supported above the full cost of high - cost production capacity [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Alumina prices will fluctuate widely in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [23][24]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 70 yuan per ton to 20960 yuan per ton. The spot price of aluminum ingots in different regions increased. The price of thermal coal also rose [26]. - **Important Information**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum in major markets increased, and the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased. The housing completion area decreased, and there were trade negotiations between the US and other countries. The output of some aluminum plants increased, and the export and import volume of aluminum products changed [27][30][31]. - **Logical Analysis**: The negotiation of tariffs has made progress, and the LME aluminum price has rebounded. Domestically, policies to eliminate backward production capacity are expected to boost aluminum prices. The aluminum rod production has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots may increase slightly. The aluminum consumption off - season may not be too serious [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will run strongly in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [32]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 70 yuan to 20140 yuan per ton. The spot price in different regions remained unchanged [35]. - **Important Information**: The weighted average full cost of the casting aluminum alloy industry in June increased, and the profit margin narrowed. The weekly production of casting aluminum alloy increased [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is affected by the off - season. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot and selling far - month futures [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices will fluctuate at a high level following the aluminum price for unilateral trading; consider arbitrage when the spot - futures price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan; hold a wait - and - see attitude for options [37][38]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The overnight LME zinc rose 0.23% to $2860 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.15% to 22940 yuan per ton. The spot trading in Shanghai was light, and the spot premium and discount were weak [41]. - **Important Information**: The zinc production of some companies changed. From January to May, the global zinc concentrate production increased, while the refined zinc production decreased, and there was a cumulative surplus [42][43]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc prices may rebound in the short - term, but in the long - term, the supply of the mine end is sufficient, and the consumption is in the off - season, with the domestic social inventory likely to increase [44][45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Zinc prices are expected to be strong in the short - term, and profitable long positions can consider partial profit - taking; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [46][47]. Lead - **Market Review**: The overnight LME lead rose 0.69% to $2028.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 rose 0.03% to 16910 yuan per ton. The spot price remained unchanged, and the trading was light [49]. - **Important Information**: The supply of waste lead - acid batteries is stable, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries changed [49][50]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the consumption of lead - acid batteries is not good but has peak - season expectations [51][52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Profitable long positions can leave the market temporarily, and try to go long lightly at low prices; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage and options [53]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The overnight LME nickel rose to $15575 per ton, and the inventory decreased. The Shanghai nickel rose to 123660 yuan per ton. The premium of spot nickel changed [55]. - **Important Information**: There was a project adjustment plan for nickel powder production. The third - round Sino - US trade negotiations will be held, and relevant work has been carried out for the problems of key enterprises in the non - ferrous metal industry [56]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but nickel supply and demand are in surplus, and it is in the off - season. The short - term price follows the macro - sentiment [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the macro - atmosphere in the short - term for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [58][59][60]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main stainless - steel SS2509 contract fell to 12900 yuan per ton, and the spot price of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel was reported [62]. - **Important Information**: The purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Shanxi Taigang decreased, and the high - nickel pig iron in Indonesia was traded [63]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market has optimistic expectations for policies, but the actual demand is not good. The cost has changed, and the market pays attention to the overall atmosphere [64]. - **Trading Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices will be strong in a volatile manner for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage [65][66]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.58% after a sharp rise and fall, and the spot price rose [68][69]. - **Important Information**: A monomer enterprise in Shandong entered maintenance, and the supply decreased [70]. - **Logical Analysis**: The production of leading enterprises may decline in July, and there is a supply - demand gap before their resumption. The long - term trend depends on the resumption rhythm, and there is upward pressure in the short - term [71]. - **Trading Strategy**: Exit long positions for unilateral trading; hold put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage [72]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 5.5% after a sharp callback, and the spot price increased [74]. - **Important Information**: The solar power generation capacity increased, but the new photovoltaic installation in June decreased [75]. - **Logical Analysis**: The increase in polysilicon prices can be transmitted to the downstream. The market has strong expectations for capacity integration, and the future trend depends on the number of warehouse receipts [76]. - **Trading Strategy**: Gradually exit long positions as the pressure on the market increases; buy protective put options for options; participate in reverse arbitrage for far - month contracts for arbitrage [77]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main lithium carbonate 2509 contract fell to 69380 yuan per ton, and the spot price increased [79]. - **Important Information**: The lithium concentrate export volume of Zimbabwe increased, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange raised the trading fee [80]. - **Logical Analysis**: Observe whether the trend changes after the increase in fees and warehouse receipts. There are concerns about supply reduction, and pay attention to relevant factors in the future [80]. - **Trading Strategy**: Follow the short - term trend for unilateral trading; hold a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options [80][81][82].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous and precious metals on July 22, 2025, covering multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold reached a five - week high, closing up 1.4% at $3396.67 per ounce; London silver hit a one - week high, closing up 1.97% at $38.897 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold futures rose 0.76% to 785.76 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver futures rose 1.85% to 9420 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index fell 0.64% to 97.853, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.3802%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, rising 0.07% to 7.1707. [2] Important Information - EU diplomats are exploring broader counter - measures against US tariffs but prefer negotiation; the US Treasury Secretary is more concerned about high - quality deals; Indonesia's 19% US tariff may take effect by August 1. A US Republican congressman accused Powell of perjury, and the Fed added a video tour of its headquarters renovation on its website. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 97.4% and in September is 41.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - With the approaching of reciprocal tariffs, market concerns resurfaced. Trump's pressure on Powell also increased market unease and loosened the expectation of the Fed maintaining high rates. [2] Trading Strategy - For the precious metals market, consider holding long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - The night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 79770 yuan per ton, up 0.64%, and the SHFE copper index added 689 lots to 514,000 lots. LME copper closed at $9867 per ton, up 0.74%. LME inventory increased by 100 tons to 122,000 tons, and COMEX inventory rose by 1023 tons to 248,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for ten key industries. In June 2025, China's refined copper imports were 337,000 tons, up 15.15% month - on - month and 9.23% year - on - year; scrap copper imports were 183,244.238 tons, down 1.06% month - on - month but up 8.49% year - on - year. [6] Logic Analysis - The expected supply - side reform boosts market sentiment, but the current consumption is in the off - season, and the upside of copper prices is limited. [8][9] Trading Strategy - For copper, the short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [12] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session of alumina 2509 contract rose 118 yuan to 3430 yuan per ton, up 3.56%. Spot prices in different regions also increased. The price of thermal coal at Jinzheng Northern Port also went up. [11] Important Information - The government will promote the construction of a unified national market and eliminate backward production capacity. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for 10,000 tons of alumina, and the winning bid price was 3430 yuan per ton, down 50 yuan from last week. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE were 6922 tons, unchanged from the previous day. A large - scale alumina enterprise in Shandong resumed production after maintenance, and a company in Guizhou will have a 10 - day maintenance. As of Friday, the national alumina production capacity was 112.92 million tons, with 93.85 million tons in operation, up 300,000 tons from last week, and the operating rate was 83.1%. [11][14][15] Logic Analysis - The expected policy of eliminating backward production capacity and low warehouse receipts drive up the futures price. The supply - demand of alumina remains in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the import market after the futures price rises. [16] Trading Strategy - For alumina, the short - term price is expected to be strong but volatile. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [17] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 100 yuan per ton to 20880 yuan per ton. On July 21, the spot prices in East, South, and Central China all increased. [19] Important Information - The national aluminum ingot inventory increased by 9000 tons from last Thursday. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 2804 tons to 63744 tons on July 21. From January to June, the completed floor area of housing decreased by 14.8%, and in June, it decreased by 2.15% year - on - year. New US tariffs may take effect in early August, and the EU is considering counter - measures. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. In June, the export of aluminum products decreased, and the import of aluminum ingots decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. On July 20, a 50,000 - ton capacity of an electrolytic aluminum project in Baise entered the restart stage. [20][21][22] Logic Analysis - The new US tariffs in early August bring uncertainty, and domestic policy expectations are also a factor. The negative feedback in the fundamentals continues, but the demand in the off - season may not be too weak, and the market's optimistic sentiment about the domestic policy of eliminating backward production capacity supports the aluminum price. [22] Trading Strategy - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is expected to be strong and volatile, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy, and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [23] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 120 yuan to 20220 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions all increased. [25] Important Information - In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of the Chinese cast aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry was 19551 yuan per ton, up 14 yuan from May. The industry had a theoretical loss of 41 yuan per ton. As of July 17, the weekly output of cast aluminum alloy increased by 2300 tons to 142,500 tons, and the weekly output of ADC12 increased by 4000 tons to 79,400 tons. [26] Logic Analysis - The supply of alloy ingot enterprises is restricted by the shortage of scrap aluminum, and the demand is supported by motorcycle parts orders but weak in automobile parts orders. The futures price is mainly affected by the cost and aluminum price, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures. [26] Trading Strategy - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is recommended to consider spot - futures arbitrage when the price difference is above 300 - 400 yuan for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market rose 0.73% to $2844.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 contract rose 0.39% to 22875 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc index position decreased by 1896 lots to 236,500 lots. The spot market was weak, with low trading volume. [29] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 92,700 tons, down 40 tons from July 14 and 80 tons from July 17. In June 2025, the import of zinc concentrates was 330,000 tons, down 32.87% month - on - month but up 22.42% year - on - year; the import of refined zinc was 36,100 tons, up 34.98% month - on - month and 3.24% year - on - year; the export of refined zinc was 1900 tons, with a net import of 34,100 tons. The export of galvanized sheets and die - cast zinc alloys increased, while the export of zinc oxide increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. [30][32][33] Logic Analysis - The zinc price may rebound in the short - term due to macro and capital factors, but in the long - term, the supply of zinc ore is sufficient, the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase, and the consumption is in the off - season, so the domestic social inventory may continue to accumulate. [33] Trading Strategy - For zinc, the short - term price may be strong, and it is recommended to go long in the short - term. After the macro sentiment fades, consider shorting at high prices according to the inventory accumulation. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and options. [34] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The LME lead market rose 0.17% to $2015 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2509 contract rose 0.18% to 16995 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead index position decreased by 351 lots to 98,500 lots. The spot price of SMM1 lead increased by 100 yuan per ton, and the transaction improved. [37] Important Information - As of July 21, the SMM five - region lead ingot inventory was 71,300 tons, up 7900 tons from July 14 and 2300 tons from July 17. A large - scale secondary lead smelter in North China will resume production in early August, affecting the July output by about 2000 tons. In June 2025, the import of lead - acid batteries was 486,100 units, up 14.73% month - on - month and 8.51% year - on - year; the export was 18.7446 million units, down 6.69% month - on - month and 20.53% year - on - year. [38] Logic Analysis - In the short - term, the supply of lead ingots may improve, and the demand from downstream battery enterprises may increase in the traditional peak season. The lead price is supported by the cost and consumption expectations, and may be strong under the improving macro environment. [38] Trading Strategy - For lead, it is recommended to hold long positions for the unilateral strategy, sell put options for the arbitrage strategy, and stay on the sidelines for options. [39] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel price rose 265 to $15510 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 300 to 207,976 tons. The SHFE nickel main contract NI2509 rose 1830 to 123,700 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 6896 lots. The premiums of Jinchuan, Russian nickel, and electrowon nickel changed differently. [41] Important Information - Nornickel lowered its 2025 nickel production forecast to 196,000 - 204,000 tons. Lifezone Metals released a feasibility study report on its Kabanga nickel project, which is expected to produce 902,000 tons of nickel per year. In June 2025, China's unforged nickel imports were 17,200 tons, down 2.67% month - on - month but up 130.76% year - on - year; the refined nickel exports were 10,100 tons, down 27.41% month - on - month and 2.01% year - on - year. The net import of unforged nickel in June was 7072 tons. [42][43] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy in the second half of the year. Nornickel's production cut helps relieve the oversupply. The fundamentals of nickel are not prominent, and the price may rebound in the short - term but the increase may be limited. [46] Trading Strategy - For nickel, the price may rise in the short - term following the macro environment. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and sell deep - out - of - the - money put options for options. [47] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The main SS2509 contract rose 35 to 12905 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 5967 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range. [49] Important Information - In June 2025, Indonesia's exports of 300 - series stainless steel products to Taiwan region of China decreased sharply. The environmental assessment of an 80,000 - ton stainless steel cold - rolling project in Guangxi was approved. A project of Guangdong Guangqing Metal Technology Co., Ltd. to improve the quality of stainless steel and build a continuous casting machine will start construction in September 2025 and is expected to be put into operation in March 2026, with an annual output of 400,000 tons of 400 - series stainless steel billets. [49] Logic Analysis - The market is optimistic about the stimulus policy, and the stainless steel price is expected to be strong in the short - term. However, the actual demand is not optimistic, and the market is trading on the macro logic. [50] Trading Strategy - For stainless steel, the price is expected to rise in a volatile manner for the unilateral strategy, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage. [52] Group 11: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9260 yuan per ton, up 4.99%. Spot prices also increased significantly. [54] Important Information - A fire broke out at Shandong Zibo Dongyue Organic Silicon Material Co., Ltd., which has a methyl chlorosilane monomer production capacity of 600,000 tons per year. [54] Logic Analysis - Leading enterprises are reducing production, and the复产 capacity in the southwest is small - scale. There is a supply - demand gap in industrial silicon before the leading enterprises resume production. The inventory is mainly in the trading sector, and the futures price increase forms a positive feedback with the spot price. In the long - term, the market reversal depends on the leading enterprises'复产 rhythm. [54] Trading Strategy - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to take a long - biased approach for the unilateral strategy, buy protective put options for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts and positive arbitrage for the 11th and 10th contracts for arbitrage. [55] Group 12: Polysilicon Market Review - No specific market review information is provided. Important Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a growth - stabilizing plan for key industries. The US solar manufacturing and trade alliance has filed an anti - dumping/anti - subsidy investigation against India, Indonesia, and Laos. [59] Logic Analysis - The polysilicon market is full of rumors, and the price increase can be transmitted to the downstream. The futures price is expected to fluctuate between 40,000 and 47,000 yuan per ton. The increase in industrial silicon price drives up the cost of polysilicon, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term until the number of warehouse receipts increases. [59][60] Trading Strategy - For polysilicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the number of warehouse receipts for the unilateral strategy, stay on the sidelines for options, and conduct reverse arbitrage for the far - month contracts for arbitrage. [60] Group 13: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract of lithium carbonate rose 1760 to 71,280 yuan per ton, and the index position increased by 17,000 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 210 to 9969 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate also increased. [62] Important Information

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating [1][2][6] Core Viewpoints - The industry's start - up has shown differentiation, and in the short term, it is expected to be range - bound [2][6] - The price of cast aluminum alloy has limited upward space in the short term, but the cost - support logic remains [6] Summary by Directory Supply - Side: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is at a medium - high level in history [9] - Scrap aluminum imports are at a high level, but the year - on - year growth rate is declining. For example, in May 2025, the import of aluminum scrap and waste was 15.97 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 3.73% [14] - The scrap - refined price difference has declined [20] Supply - Side: Recycled Aluminum - The price of cast aluminum alloy has been flat, and the gap between ADC12 and A00 has converged [27] - The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy has basically converged and shows certain seasonal patterns [32] - The weekly start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, while the monthly start - up rate has increased [37] - ADC12 costs are mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and currently, the average is estimated to be in a loss [38] - The explicit and implicit inventory of cast alloy has slightly decreased [43] - The import window for cast aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [45] - For recycled aluminum rods, the production and inventory data are presented, with different production shares in various regions [48][49] Demand - Side: Terminal Consumption - Terminal consumption: The production of fuel - powered vehicles has rebounded, which has been transmitted to die - casting consumption [55] - In July (July 7 - July 13), the total sales volume of domestic passenger cars was 333,000, a year - on - year decrease of 6.46% [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and precious metals. For precious metals, they are expected to maintain high - level oscillations due to market uncertainties. For copper, the price is under pressure due to supply - related factors. Alumina's supply - demand pattern is evolving from tight balance to structural surplus. For electrolytic aluminum, the price is short - term under pressure, and the consumption off - season may not be overly pessimistic. The casting aluminum alloy price is mainly influenced by cost and aluminum price. Zinc price may be pressured by fundamentals. Lead price has potential to rise due to supply - demand changes. Nickel price is weak but with cost support. Stainless steel price is under pressure due to supply - demand imbalance. Industrial silicon price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Polysilicon price is also expected to be strong. Lithium carbonate price will be in high - level oscillations in the short - term and may decline in the fourth quarter [2][4][10][13][18][25][29][33][37][40][43][47][54]. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 0.68% to $3345.985/oz, London silver rose 0.49% to $37.87/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.23% to 98.39, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.4488%, and the RMB exchange rate rose 0.05% to 7.177 [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump's rumor of firing Powell caused market turmoil, and US June PPI data was lower than expected. The Fed's economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, and the probability of interest rate changes is given [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: PPI data eased CPI concerns, but inflation and Fed's rate - cut timing uncertainties remain. Precious metals are expected to oscillate at high levels [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions on dips near the 5 - day moving average; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.01% to 77950 yuan/ton, LME copper fell 0.21% to $9637/ton. LME and COMEX inventories increased [7]. - **Important Information**: Rumors about Powell's dismissal affected the market. In May 2025, there was a global refined copper supply surplus. A copper transport route in Peru was unblocked, and a Chilean company's copper production increased [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is relatively sufficient, price is pressured, and market procurement is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 53 yuan to 3086 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable or slightly increased [12]. - **Important Information**: Related meetings emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, and inventory and production data showed changes [12][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand pattern is changing from tight balance to surplus, and the price is under pressure [13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate under pressure in the short - term, high - sell and low - buy in the range; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [14]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract rose 15 yuan to 20445 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [16]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventories decreased, and there were rumors about Powell's dismissal. Housing completion data was provided [18]. - **Trading Logic**: Macro events may affect overseas aluminum prices, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the consumption off - season may not be too bad [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Aluminum price is under short - term pressure, beware of price fluctuations caused by Powell's situation; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19845 yuan/ton, and spot prices were mostly stable [23]. - **Important Information**: Production, inventory, and cost data of casting aluminum alloy were provided [23][24]. - **Trading Logic**: Supply has issues with actual sales, and demand is weak. The price is mainly affected by cost and aluminum price [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Be under pressure at high levels; Arbitrage: Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, or when the spot - futures price difference is over 400 yuan; Options: Wait and see [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.07% to $2699.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2509 rose 0.25% to 22055 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly among traders [29]. - **Important Information**: A company's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter of 2025 [29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and the price may be pressured [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: The price may fluctuate due to macro factors. Partially close profitable short positions and re - enter short at high prices; Arbitrage: Buy put options or sell call options; Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 1.15% to $1978/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.06% to 16885 yuan/ton. Spot trading was poor [32][33]. - **Important Information**: There was an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese lead - acid batteries in the Middle East [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is difficult to increase, and consumption is improving [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Try long positions lightly due to cost support and consumption peak expectations; Arbitrage: Sell put options; Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $14990/ton, Shanghai nickel fell to 119640 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [36]. - **Important Information**: In May 2025, there was a global nickel supply surplus. There were concerns about US tariffs, and Philippine nickel exports to Indonesia were expected to increase [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is affected by tariff concerns, and the price is weak with cost support [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given context. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel fell to 12680 yuan/ton, and spot prices were provided [38]. - **Important Information**: Stainless steel inventory decreased in Foshan, and Indian stainless steel consumption data was provided [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - demand imbalance leads to price pressure [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Sell on rebounds; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract fell 0.91% to 8685 yuan/ton, and some spot prices rose [43]. - **Important Information**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [43]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The overall supply in July may decrease, and the market may reach a balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term [43]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be bullish in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: None [44][45]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures contract rose 1.50% to 42945 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [47]. - **Important Information**: There was a photovoltaic project component procurement bid [47]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Market rumors focus on "anti - involution" and cost - based sales. The price increase can be passed on to downstream, and the price is expected to be strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Be strong in the short - term; Arbitrage: Stop the profit of the strategy of going long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon; Options: Wait and see [49]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose to 66420 yuan/ton, and spot prices increased [52]. - **Important Information**: The Asian lithium market faces downward pressure, and there were news about lithium mine projects [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances prevent deep price drops in the short - term, and the price may decline in the fourth quarter [54]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Oscillate at high levels in the short - term, beware of policy risks; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [56].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].