证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-11-12 宏观策略 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收周报 20251109：债市震荡格局难破，如何应对？ 本周债券市场仍未脱离箱体震荡区间，一方面，央行通过买断式逆回购和 净买入国债维持流动性稳定，另一方面，市场预期基金费率新规中针对赎 回费率的规定将引发债券市场波动。我们认为对债市可以保持谨慎乐观， 赎回费率新规落地后，仍将设置一定的过渡期，从而从时间维度上将此影 响平摊，此外银行理财赎回债基后，自身买入债券也将引导利率再度下 行，债券市场的分析逻辑仍将回归到基本面和政策面。基本面上，针对 "反内卷"的效果预期胜过目前基本面仍弱复苏的现实，加之去年债券市 场已经计入过多的基本面走弱和降息预期，利率进一步下行较为困难。但 好在央行对于流动性的支持态度始终如一，并且通过重启买入国债和买 断式逆回购向市场投放长期流动性。本周公布的净买入国债规模低于预 期并不代表央行对流动性的支持力度减弱，因 10 月末才宣布重启买入国 债，更应该观察 11 月的全月数据。此外，月初 3M 买断式逆回购的续作 延续。央行通过货币政策工具的创新，部分代替 ...

Group 1: Service Industry IP Emergence - The rise of "service industry IP" reflects a profound transformation in China's consumption structure, gradually replacing "product IP" as a media and online focus[11] - In 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure reached 46.1%, an increase of approximately 6.4 percentage points since 2013[10] - The domestic tourism market saw 5.615 billion trips in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, with total spending reaching 5.75 trillion yuan, up 17.1%[32] Group 2: Factors Driving Service Industry IP - Intensified local competition has led to a demand for service industry IP, as traditional economic drivers like real estate enter a downturn, increasing fiscal pressure on local governments[2] - The K-shaped consumption differentiation indicates that some consumers are willing to pay a premium for unique experiences, while others prioritize cost-effectiveness, creating a conducive environment for service industry IP development[5] - The emergence of grassroots service IP, such as "粥饼伦" and "鸡排哥," highlights the emotional value provided to consumers, enhancing their overall experience[41] Group 3: Government Support Measures - Local governments have implemented supportive measures for service industry IP, such as relocating popular vendors and promoting them as cultural ambassadors[42] - Initiatives like customized tourism lines and free access to local attractions for ticket holders have been introduced to enhance consumer experience and engagement[42] - The government's role is crucial in maintaining the long-term appeal of service industry IP, ensuring that these initiatives are sustainable and beneficial for local economies[43] Group 4: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include inadequate support policies for service consumption development and the exacerbation of economic impacts from the real estate downturn[44] - A slowdown in resident income growth may also affect consumer spending and support for service industry IP[44]