股指期货日报 2025年10月17日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 下旬股市波动或放大 市场回顾 今日股指走势整体回落，以沪深300指数为例，收盘2.26%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升69.79亿元。期 指方面，IM放量下跌，其余品种均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1、财政部将继续提前下达2026年新增地方政府债务限额。 2、财政部、海关总署、税务总局联合印发《关于调整海南离岛旅客免税购物政策的公告》，定于11月1日起 实施。财政部称，一是扩大离岛免税商品范围，增加宠物用品、可随身携带的乐器、微型无人机、小家电等 商品。优化后的离岛免税商品由45大类提高至47大类。 3、2025金融街论坛年会开幕式拟10月27日下午举行 "一行两局一会"主要负责人将做主题演讲。 核心观点 今日股市整体回落，以沪深300指数为例，收盘基本回归周一开盘价附近水平。短期关于中美贸易关系的讨论 甚嚣尘上，反复拉扯，市场整体交易维持谨慎，红利指数走势继续展现相对 韧性，小盘期指持仓量上涨，或 存在空头套保增仓的现象。进入下旬，股市扰动变量将增加，主要包括20-23日的二十届四中全会 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - Today, stock index fluctuated widely with different trends for large - and small - cap stocks. Large - cap index closed up, while small - and medium - cap index continued to decline. High - dividend sectors represented by banks and cyclical industries such as food and beverage and medicine led the rise, driving the large - cap index up [5]. - Trading volume continued to shrink. After two months, the trading volume of the two markets dropped below two trillion yuan, and the margin trading ratio also declined rapidly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment. With lack of volume support and dull information, short - term volatile market will continue [5]. - Short - term trend trading is difficult to capture due to wide market fluctuations. Index futures cross - variety arbitrage can be tried. Considering market risk aversion suppressing small - cap stocks and the decreasing popularity of high - valued technology leaders, the relative advantage of large - cap index is expected to continue periodically [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Stock index trends were mixed today. For example, the CSI 300 index closed up 0.26%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 141.721 billion yuan. In the index futures market, IF rose with decreasing volume, IH rose with increasing volume, and IC and IM fell with decreasing volume [3]. Important Information - On October 16, 2025, at the Sustainable Global Leaders Conference, Bi Xiaoying of the CSRC said that the CSRC will guide the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges to enrich the compilation guidelines based on the "Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Sustainable Development Reports of Listed Companies" according to enterprise needs, and conduct policy evaluation after mandatory disclosure next year to optimize the disclosure system [4]. - Trump claimed that India promised to stop buying Russian oil, and India responded that it prioritizes consumer interests. The Chinese Foreign Ministry opposed the US using China - related issues in trade negotiations [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Pay attention to the trading opportunity of going long on IF and short on IM [6]. Futures Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%）|成交量（万手）|成交量环比（万手）|持仓量（万手）|持仓量环比（万手）| | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.38 | 15.3473 | - 0.2094 | 27.4819 | - 0.228 | | IH | 0.80 | 7.6311 | 0.5009 | 10.3884 | 0.6373 | | IC | - 1.01 | 15.8548 | - 2.4066 | 25.3051 | - 0.8459 | | IM | - 0.95 | 24.9753 | - 4.3401 | 35.5481 | - 1.475 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.10 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | - 0.25 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.28 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 1931.138 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous day (billion yuan) | - 141.721 | [8]