期权PCR择时策略
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11 月衍生品月报:(2025/11):衍生品市场提示情绪中性-20251108
Huafu Securities· 2025-11-08 14:25
- The report introduces the PCR (Put/Call Ratio) as a market sentiment indicator, which is used in a timing strategy for options trading. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests a potential sentiment reversal) approaches[5][73][65] - The PCR timing strategy is applied to the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index and the CSI 300 Index. The strategy's performance is tracked, showing better results for the CSI 300 Index in 2025, with a year-to-date return of -2.66% and the latest signal being "no position" (signal 0)[5][83][79] - The performance metrics for the PCR strategy on the CSI 300 Index include an annualized volatility of 15.46%, a Sharpe ratio of 0, a Calmar ratio of 0.03, and a win rate of 50.25% for 2025. The overall performance from 2020 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 19.13%, a maximum drawdown of 23.42%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.97[79][83][78] - For the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the PCR strategy's performance metrics for 2025 include an annualized volatility of 13.35%, a Sharpe ratio of -0.04, a Calmar ratio of 0, and a win rate of 50.25%. The overall performance from 2017 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 14.20%, a maximum drawdown of 24.96%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.76[80][83][78]