Group 1 - The pricing of Tesla's robots aligns with Figure's valuation, indicating a potential increase in the valuation ceiling for global robot manufacturers [1][2] - Figure's recent C-round financing has raised its post-money valuation to $39 billion, with a projected price per robot of $20,000 based on a production target of 100,000 units [2] - Tesla's robot business is projected to reach a market cap of $500 billion, with a target delivery of 1 million units, suggesting a price per unit of $25,000 [2] Group 2 - Core component companies are expected to enjoy significant valuation premiums, with potential P/E ratios reaching 200 times in the early stages of the industry [3] - The hardware cost for robots is estimated at 70%, with joint modules priced at $300 each, leading to a projected P/S ratio of around 30 times for joint module companies [3] - The market for robots is anticipated to grow exponentially, allowing core component companies to rapidly increase their valuations during the initial to scaling phases [3] Group 3 - Companies with capabilities in continuous R&D, engineering feasibility, and global manufacturing are likely to integrate into the supply chains of leading robot companies like Tesla and Figure [4] - Key components such as dexterous hands and actuators are critical for the practical application of robots, emphasizing the importance of supply chain vertical integration [4] - The focus on supply chain integration, AI chip development, and dexterous hands is central to the product requirements of both Tesla and Figure [3][4]

机器人整机厂估值抬升带来的行业估值马太效应有望进一步增强，核心零部件公司估值水平在产业初期 具备较大的提升空间。按硬件成本70%计算，参考特斯拉机器人估值，假设单台28个关节模组，量产后 单个300美元，对应关节模组公司PS在30倍左右，假设净利润率15%，对应PE约200倍。我们认为， 2028-2035年头部机器人厂商量产指引达百万台，广阔的市场空间足够容纳更高的估值。同时，机器人 放量节奏是非线性，机器人数量是指数级增长，核心零部件公司在产业初期到放量期，估值能够快速被 消化。此外，我们参考部分机器人零部件公司近3年平均估值水平，其PE整体维持在200倍左右，符合 我们此前测算。 供应链、数据和场景是关键，聚焦灵巧手、关节总成等核心零部件方向 来源：市场资讯 （来源：研报虎） 全球机器人整机龙头公司定价重塑，机器人整机估值天花板打开 9月16日，Figure宣布完成C轮融资，投后估值攀升至390亿美元。按照量产10万台机器人计算，若单台 价值量随规模化量产下探到2万美金，对应PS约20倍。此前特斯拉宣布为马斯克设计10年期薪酬计划， 其中机器人Optimus目标是累计交付100万台，对应5000亿美元的 ...