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开源证券:机器人龙头公司定价重塑 核心零部件公司有望迎估值溢价
智通财经网· 2025-09-22 12:24
Group 1 - The pricing of Tesla's robots aligns with Figure's valuation, indicating a potential increase in the valuation ceiling for global robot manufacturers [1][2] - Figure's recent C-round financing has raised its post-money valuation to $39 billion, with a projected price per robot of $20,000 based on a production target of 100,000 units [2] - Tesla's robot business is projected to reach a market cap of $500 billion, with a target delivery of 1 million units, suggesting a price per unit of $25,000 [2] Group 2 - Core component companies are expected to enjoy significant valuation premiums, with potential P/E ratios reaching 200 times in the early stages of the industry [3] - The hardware cost for robots is estimated at 70%, with joint modules priced at $300 each, leading to a projected P/S ratio of around 30 times for joint module companies [3] - The market for robots is anticipated to grow exponentially, allowing core component companies to rapidly increase their valuations during the initial to scaling phases [3] Group 3 - Companies with capabilities in continuous R&D, engineering feasibility, and global manufacturing are likely to integrate into the supply chains of leading robot companies like Tesla and Figure [4] - Key components such as dexterous hands and actuators are critical for the practical application of robots, emphasizing the importance of supply chain vertical integration [4] - The focus on supply chain integration, AI chip development, and dexterous hands is central to the product requirements of both Tesla and Figure [3][4]
开源证券-机械行业周报:Figure 390亿美金估值和马斯克“万亿美金薪酬计划”的背后
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-21 17:45
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the valuation ceiling for global robot manufacturers has been lifted, with Figure's recent C-round financing raising its post-money valuation to $39 billion, suggesting a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of approximately 20 times if the production reaches 100,000 units at a unit price of $20,000 [1] - Tesla's announcement of a 10-year compensation plan for Musk, targeting the delivery of 1 million Optimus robots, implies a market capitalization of $500 billion, aligning with Figure's valuation metrics [1] - The valuation uplift for robot manufacturers is expected to create a "Matthew Effect" in the industry, benefiting core component companies with significant potential for valuation increases, with projected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios reaching up to 200 times in the early stages of the industry [1] Group 2 - Key focus areas for Figure's financing include application scenarios, infrastructure development, and data collection, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration, AI chip technology, and dexterous hands in product development [2] - Companies that can integrate supply chain capabilities, engineering feasibility, and global manufacturing capacity are likely to become part of the supply chain for leading robot companies like Tesla and Figure [2] - Specific core component directions identified include dexterous hands for precise operations and actuators and motors that are critical for supply chain vertical integration [2] Group 3 - Relevant companies and targets in the robotics sector include: 1) Rotary actuators and reducers: Longsheng Technology 2) Linear actuators: Zhenyu Technology, Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control 3) Dexterous hands: Zhenyu Technology, Rongtai Health, Jundingda 4) Lead screws: Wuzhou Xinchun, Zhenyu Technology, Zhejiang Rongtai 5) Motors: Xinzhi Group 6) Lightweight materials: Weike Technology, Hengbo Shares 7) Structural components: Lingyi Zhi Zao, Changying Precision 8) Applications: Taotao Automotive [3]