最近有只挺火的商业航天股，前脚刚被证监会点名，后脚股价就创下历史新高——12月31日，做3D打印的铂力特收到《立案告知书》，说涉嫌信息披露违 法违规。但公司马上回应：生产经营正常，不会有重大影响。更有意思的是，这只股今年已经涨了183%，12月单月涨近42%，今天收盘还报111.51元，总 市值306亿。 是不是很好奇？为什么被立案还能涨？其实关键不在新闻本身，而在我们怎么看"震荡"——很多人拿不住好股，就是栽在"震荡"上。 一、立案不影响的背后，藏着对"震荡"的认知差 你有没有过这种经历？买了一只好股，刚涨两天就开始大跌，赶紧卖了；结果卖了之后又涨，再追进去，又跌——最后得出结论："我和这只股没缘分"。 等你彻底死心，股价却开始飞涨，只能安慰自己"我也买到过牛股"。 就像2025年6、7月的行情，有只股不到十天跌了近20%，换你你敢拿吗？可回头看，那只是机构洗盘的手段。再比如这张图里的情况（看图1）：区域①巨 阴下跌，大家都说是"高位出货"；区域②反弹没两天又调整，有人说"双头做顶"；区域③看着像真正的高位，可实际上都是机构在"震仓"——好股的震荡， 从来都是机构不想让你分一杯羹的手段。 二、用数据拆穿"震 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unreliability of expert predictions in the financial market, emphasizing the importance of data analysis over expert opinions [1][3][10]. Group 1: Expert Opinions - Experts often provide ambiguous analyses that can be interpreted in multiple ways, leading to confusion among retail investors [3]. - The article criticizes the tendency of experts to take credit for correct predictions while deflecting blame for incorrect ones through complex jargon [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The essence of the stock market is the competition for pricing power, which is predominantly held by institutional investors, leaving retail investors as passive participants [4]. - Institutional investors often act contrary to their public statements, as illustrated by their secretive investments in restructuring stocks while claiming to avoid speculative plays [4]. Group 3: Data Analysis - Data is presented as a more reliable indicator of institutional behavior than expert opinions, with examples showing how institutions were quietly accumulating shares of "Rongke Technology" during a market downturn [6]. - The case of "Wenyi Technology" demonstrates that analyzing trading behavior data is crucial for understanding market movements beyond just price charts [8]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Report - The 9% probability of zero interest rates, while seemingly low, is significant in the context of the global economic landscape, warranting careful preparation [10]. - The article concludes that rather than relying on expert forecasts, investors should focus on studying trading data and developing their analytical tools [10].