白银频频暴涨之际，CME已再度出手上调保证金。这一举措唤醒了市场对历史上数次"逼仓"失败的记忆：2011年银价崩 盘前，CME曾在短短九天内连续五次上调保证金；1980年亨特兄弟溃败，同样始于交易所限制杠杆。 历史反复证明，当 交易所开始密集通过提高保证金来限制杠杆时，往往是市场逆转的前兆。 大洋彼岸的白银市场正陷入癫狂。12月26日周五，现货白银飙升逾10%，逼近80美元/盎司关口，COMEX白银期货周涨 幅接近18%。 这一轮"金属狂潮"不仅局限于白银，黄金已突破4550美元，铜价跟随沪铜创下历史新高，铂金和钯金亦录得双位数涨 幅。市场正在定价"商品控制权"的新叙事，以及将其作为对冲"AI泡沫"和货币贬值的工具。 然而，在疯狂的行情背后，历史的警钟已经敲响。芝加哥商品交易所（CME）已于12月12日将白银保证金上调了10%。 2011年白银崩盘与1980年亨特兄弟（Hunt Brothers）逼仓失败的历史案例表明，当交易所开始出手限制杠杆时，往往 意味着狂欢接近尾声。 与此同时，国内也已采取行动。北京时间12月26日，上海期货交易所发布通知，将黄金、白银期货合约的涨跌停板幅度 调整为15%，并相应上调交 ...

【导读】瑞士央行宣布维持"0利率"，符合市场预期 大家好，继续关注海外央行消息！ 12月11日，瑞士央行宣布维持政策利率在0%不变，符合市场预期。 瑞士央行在声明中指出，近几个月的通胀略低于预期。中期来看，通胀压力与上一次货币政策评估几乎保持不变。自上次货币政策评估以来，通胀率略有 下降，从8月的0.2%降至11月的0%。这一下降主要得益于酒店业、租金及服装等领域价格涨幅的放缓。 国内经济方面，瑞士央行表示，瑞士GDP在第三季度收缩，主要受制药行业拖累，其他制造业和服务业增加值小幅增长。由于整体经济发展疲软，近几个 月失业率进一步上升。 得益于美国关税下调及全球经济形势略有好转，瑞士经济前景略有改善。瑞士央行预计2025年GDP增速略低于1.5%，2026年增速约为1%。在此环境下， 失业率可能继续小幅上升。 基于0%的利率假设，瑞士央行将2026年通胀预期从0.5%下调至0.3%，将2027年通胀预期从0.7%下调至0.6%。 瑞士国家银行（SNB）将政策利率维持在0%不变。瑞士央行仍准备在必要时积极干预外汇市场。 消息公布后，瑞士法郎小幅走强，美元兑瑞士法郎汇率下跌0.15%，处于11月中旬以来低位。 | ...

Group 1 - The central bank's continued interest rate cuts can significantly reduce the cost of existing debt for households, businesses, and the government, leading to substantial savings in interest payments each year [1][5] - As of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6%, indicating positive changes in financial data [1] - M1 is considered a leading indicator of economic activity, as it reflects the liquidity available for consumption, investment, and trading [1][2] Group 2 - A further increase in M1 growth to between 5% and 10% is necessary for true monetary easing and to stimulate consumption, stabilize housing prices, and revitalize the stock market [2][4] - The net financing of government bonds in the first half of the year reached 7.66 trillion yuan, which is 4.32 trillion yuan more than the previous year, benefiting from the low-interest environment [4] - The corporate bond net financing was 1.15 trillion yuan, a decrease of 256.2 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a need for improved business investment confidence and further interest rate cuts [4] Group 3 - The current household debt in China amounts to approximately 80 trillion yuan, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save households around 800 billion yuan in interest payments annually [5] - Non-financial enterprises owe about 150 trillion yuan to banks, and a 1% interest rate cut could result in an additional 1.5 trillion yuan in profits for these companies [5] - The total government debt, including hidden debts, is over 100 trillion yuan, and a 1% interest rate reduction could save the government more than 100 billion yuan in interest payments each year [5] Group 4 - There is a viewpoint that emphasizes the importance of not deliberately devaluing the currency to enhance export advantages, suggesting that market forces should dictate currency value [8] - Concerns about interest rate cuts leading to currency devaluation and capital outflow are seen as misplaced, as the primary goal of monetary policy should be to stabilize domestic economic growth and employment [8][9] - Historical examples from Japan and the U.S. demonstrate that aggressive monetary policies, including zero and negative interest rates, can successfully stimulate economic recovery [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unreliability of expert predictions in the financial market, emphasizing the importance of data analysis over expert opinions [1][3][10]. Group 1: Expert Opinions - Experts often provide ambiguous analyses that can be interpreted in multiple ways, leading to confusion among retail investors [3]. - The article criticizes the tendency of experts to take credit for correct predictions while deflecting blame for incorrect ones through complex jargon [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The essence of the stock market is the competition for pricing power, which is predominantly held by institutional investors, leaving retail investors as passive participants [4]. - Institutional investors often act contrary to their public statements, as illustrated by their secretive investments in restructuring stocks while claiming to avoid speculative plays [4]. Group 3: Data Analysis - Data is presented as a more reliable indicator of institutional behavior than expert opinions, with examples showing how institutions were quietly accumulating shares of "Rongke Technology" during a market downturn [6]. - The case of "Wenyi Technology" demonstrates that analyzing trading behavior data is crucial for understanding market movements beyond just price charts [8]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Report - The 9% probability of zero interest rates, while seemingly low, is significant in the context of the global economic landscape, warranting careful preparation [10]. - The article concludes that rather than relying on expert forecasts, investors should focus on studying trading data and developing their analytical tools [10].

Core Viewpoint - The decline in bank deposit interest rates is a concern, but it is unlikely that rates will drop to zero in China due to various economic factors and the current financial landscape [1][3][12] Group 1: Current Trends in Deposit Rates - Recent years have seen a significant decline in bank deposit interest rates, with 3-year rates dropping from 3.05% to 1.50% and 1-year rates from 2.25% to 1.3% [1] - Concerns have been raised that if this trend continues, deposit rates could eventually reach zero, similar to some developed European countries [1][3] Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - The situation in Europe, where some countries have zero deposit rates, is not directly applicable to China, as those rates are often just nominal and banks still offer rates above zero [3][4] - China's economic conditions, including a GDP growth of 5.4% in the first quarter and a high M2 money supply exceeding 300 trillion, suggest that a zero interest rate policy would not be feasible [8][12] Group 3: Risks of Zero Interest Rates - A zero deposit rate could lead to significant capital outflows as domestic deposits would shift to countries with higher rates, exacerbating issues in the domestic real estate and stock markets [6][12] - The potential for increased loan demand due to low rates could result in higher default rates, reminiscent of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, indicating that maintaining a balance in interest rates is crucial [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) believes that a zero interest rate does not imply negative interest rates, even though market rates may be in the negative territory [1] Group 1 - The SNB's stance indicates a differentiation between policy rates and market rates, suggesting that the central bank does not view the current market conditions as a signal to adopt negative rates [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges posed by a low-interest-rate environment and suggests various asset allocation strategies to mitigate inflation pressure and enhance returns in such conditions [1][3][7]. Group 1: Financial Environment - The global financial environment is becoming increasingly complex, with many individuals struggling to keep pace [1]. - Japan's zero interest rate policy since 1999 and Europe's negative interest rates since 2014 have led to a shift in asset allocation strategies among residents [1][3]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - Gold prices have reached $3,300, and Bitcoin has surged to $110,000, while deposit interest rates have fallen below 1%, creating significant pressure on traditional savings [3]. - Major domestic banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates dropping below 1% [3]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Strategies - Personal asset management should follow a "three-part method" for diversified asset allocation [3]. - Short-term liquidity should be managed through money market funds or T+0 cash management products, with annualized rates around 1% [3]. - High-dividend stocks and REITs are recommended for stable income, with average dividend rates of approximately 3% for domestic ETFs and up to 7% for Hong Kong's high-dividend ETFs [5]. - A combination of government bonds, convertible bonds, and high-rated corporate bonds can target around 3% returns, with domestic options including policy financial bond funds and convertible bond index funds [5]. - Long-term guaranteed income can be achieved through life insurance products offering around 3% returns, although recent trends show a decline in guaranteed rates [5][7]. Group 4: Global Asset Diversification - Investors concerned about currency depreciation are advised to consider QDII index funds and gold ETFs for international asset diversification and commodity risk hedging [5]. - The article emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted investment strategy to adapt to the low-interest-rate environment and ensure asset preservation and growth [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in LPR (Loan Prime Rate) by the central bank signals an approaching era of zero and negative interest rates, which will have significant implications for the banking sector and the broader economy [1][6][12]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The central bank has lowered the 1-year LPR to 3% and the 5-year LPR to 3.5%, with major state-owned banks following suit by reducing deposit rates by up to 25 basis points [1][3]. - The 1-year fixed deposit rate has dropped to a historic low of 0.95%, marking the first time it has fallen below 1% [3][6]. - The trend of declining interest rates is expected to continue, potentially leading to zero or negative rates in the future [6][12]. Group 2: Banking Sector Implications - The profitability of commercial banks is under pressure due to a declining net interest margin, which has fallen to 1.43%, below the critical threshold of 1.8% [7][11]. - The reduction in deposit rates is a direct response to the need for banks to maintain profitability by lowering costs associated with deposits [12][18]. - The banking sector is facing challenges as the volume of non-performing loans remains significant, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.22% across major banks [10]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The shift towards lower interest rates is intended to encourage consumer spending and investment, as saving becomes less attractive [12][28]. - The government aims to alleviate the burden of existing debts for enterprises and local governments by creating a low-interest environment [12][16]. - Historical comparisons with Japan and the U.S. suggest that low or negative interest rates can stimulate economic activity and housing markets, as seen in the significant rise in U.S. housing prices during similar conditions [34][37]. Group 4: Housing Market Dynamics - The anticipated decrease in mortgage rates, potentially below 3%, is expected to stimulate housing demand, leading to a possible surge in property prices [18][30]. - However, the increase in demand may also result in stricter lending standards, making it more challenging for buyers to secure mortgages [31]. - The potential for rising inflation due to increased consumer spending and investment could further complicate the economic landscape [32].

Group 1 - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 0% in the upcoming policy meeting on June 19, returning to the level seen in September 2022 when the "zero interest rate" era ended [1] - The Swiss franc has reached a 10-year high against the US dollar and is close to its highest level against the euro, driven by capital fleeing US assets amid increased tariffs announced by President Trump [4] - The SNB is moving towards a zero interest rate policy to prevent further appreciation of the Swiss franc, which could lower domestic inflation and harm exports, negatively impacting economic growth [4] Group 2 - Among 20 forecasters, only one economist predicts a 50 basis point cut to -0.25% in June, while most expect a cut to -0.25% in September, indicating a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle in June [5] - The average inflation rate forecast for Switzerland in 2025 is 0.4%, aligning with the SNB's recent predictions, providing some comfort to policymakers [5] - Economic growth for Switzerland is projected at 1.1% for this year, with growth rates of 1.4% and 1.6% expected for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating no significant slowdown in economic activity [5]

总是下不了狠心去剁，也下不了狠心去追。怕刚剁了就涨，刚追了就跌。 这个心理关太难过了。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250207— 零利率当场失业，债转熊直接下岗（-股市上涨-资金价格仍偏贵=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 昨天德银唱多中国称：China eats the world. 今天大A盘中跳水，股民纷纷哀叹：China eats the world's investors。同时找到另外一家外资背锅：大摩称"放弃 幻想，预计中国财政及货币政策出台力度低于预期，中美达成新版协议概率很低。"还好，大A尾盘上演绝地反击，股民坐着惊心动魄的过山车表示："A 股虐我千百遍，我待大A如初恋"。 央行公开市场开展1837亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有2840亿元逆回购到期。净回笼1003亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，但隔夜回购利率维持高位与七天期倒挂。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 02. 07) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利 ...