"对投资，我想来想去，总觉得只有一样东西最简单，就是当你买一个股票时，你一定是认为你在买这家公司，你可能拿在手里10年，20年，有这种想法 后就容易判断很多。长期而言(10年20年或以上)坚持只投好的商业模式，好的企业文化的公司大概率上是会有比较好的回报的，而且这种投资方法让人很 愉快，不需要整天瞎操心。" ——段永平 名创优品(09896,MNSO.US)发布了 25 年 Q3 财报： 1、营收同比增长 28.2% 至 57.97 亿元，创下单季营收新高，毛利润同比增长 28%(指扣掉商品成本的利润，未包括其他费用，如营销、行政、财务等)， 毛利率提升至 44.7%。归母净利润4.41亿元，同比减少31%，经调整净利润达到 7.67 亿元(加上了Top Toy 筹备上市的股权激励等一次性费用)，同比增长 12%，经调整净利率为 13.2%。 2、具体业务上：MINISO品牌：营收 52.2 亿元(+23%)、TOP TOY品牌：营收 5.7 亿元(+111.4%);门店总数：全球达 8138 家(其中 MINISO 7831家 + TOP TOY 307家); 我们对比 Q1、Q2 的数据： 3、同店 GM ...

自11月10日起，人民币将正式退出伦敦金属交易所的期货合约交易。单看这一事件或许波澜不惊，但结合美国 12 月即将启动的量化宽松政策，以及刚 组建的十国关键矿产联盟来看，这本质是一场针对人民币定价权的精准狙击，且时间节点的把控堪称刻意。 大宗商品的"定价权"是什么？它并非一个单一的权力，而是一套由交易规则、货币流动性与实物控制权共同构成的三足鼎立的权力结构。 近期，国际上看似孤立的三件事，恰恰是在这三个维度上，清晰地勾勒出一场深刻博弈的轮廓，其核心指向未来全球经济秩序中美元与人民币的地位之 争。 定价权的基石，是对被全球认可的交易规则和金融工具的掌控，伦敦金属交易所（LME）正是这一"制度层"的传统主导者，其价格影响着全球超八成的 有色金属贸易。 更值得注意的是，这一决策发生在港交所全资控股的LME内部，却带有英国金融行为监管局（FCA）干预的痕迹。这揭示了金融平台的归属权与其规则 制定权，在地缘政治面前的复杂分离，构建一个具备全球公信力的新制度，面临的正是这种根深蒂固的壁垒。 中国同样在物理层展开布局，近期在西昆仑带发现的巨大锂资源潜力，以及国内锂产量超过30%的增幅，都意在增强供应链的自主权。这场博弈的时 ...

Key Points Similarweb posted its Q3 results yesterday and delivered mixed results. The company maintained its full-year sales guidance and raised its adjusted operating profit forecast. Investors appear to be worried about the company's pricing power. 10 stocks we like better than Similarweb › Similarweb (NYSE: SMWB) stock is heading lower in Wednesday's trading. The company's share price was down 8.7% as of 11:30 a.m. ET, and had been down as much as 16.9% earlier in the session. Similarweb publ ...

Core Viewpoint - China has suspended the purchase of iron ore from BHP Billiton, marking a significant shift in its long-standing reliance on Australian iron ore, driven by negotiations over pricing and payment terms [2][7][19] Group 1: Pricing Dispute - China proposed a price of $80 per ton for iron ore, which is significantly higher than BHP's production costs of $30 to $40 per ton, indicating a substantial profit margin for BHP [3] - BHP insisted on a price increase of 15% based on post-war reconstruction costs, raising the price to $109.5 per ton, which would result in an additional cost of over $200 billion for China annually given its import volume of 700 million tons [5] - The longstanding pricing mechanism based on the Platts index has been criticized for favoring mining companies, leading to China's demand for a shift to pricing in RMB [5][7] Group 2: Strategic Alliances and Supply Sources - Chinese steel companies have established strategic partnerships with other mining companies like Rio Tinto and Vale, which have already begun using RMB for transactions, reducing reliance on BHP [9] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, with reserves of 4.7 billion tons and a planned annual supply of 120 to 150 million tons, is set to begin shipments to China in November 2025, potentially offsetting the loss from BHP [13] - Domestic iron ore production is increasing, with a target of adding 6.56 million tons by 2025, and a focus on recycling steel, which is expected to reach 250 million tons in 2024 [13][15] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - China's shift towards domestic production and recycling reduces its dependency on Australian iron ore, leading to a more favorable supply-demand balance for China [15] - The Australian government has softened its stance in negotiations, indicating a willingness to cooperate on trade agreements following China's assertive actions [15] - The ongoing transformation in pricing strategies reflects China's growing influence in international trade, as it seeks to establish its own pricing mechanisms in various sectors, including natural gas and agricultural products [19]

Core Insights - Shake Shack reported record revenue of $356 million in Q2 2025, exceeding analyst expectations of $354 million, with adjusted earnings of $0.44 per share compared to the consensus of $0.38 per share [1] - The company experienced a same-store sales growth of 1.8%, which fell short of the expected 2%, leading to a significant drop in share price by nearly 15% on the earnings report day [2] - Despite the disappointing share performance, Shake Shack's net income grew by 77% last quarter, indicating strong underlying business performance [4] Financial Performance - Shake Shack's revenue grew by 12.6% year over year, and the company added 63 stores, marking an 11.5% increase in store count [1] - The company has raised menu prices multiple times, including a 3% increase in the most recent quarter, contributing to revenue growth that has nearly doubled since Q1 2022 [8] - Shake Shack's restaurant-level profit margin increased by 190 basis points to 23.9%, significantly higher than the average fast-casual dining sector margin of 6% to 9% [13] Expansion Plans - Management announced plans to operate or license 1,500 stores, a significant increase from the 330 stores currently open, with 80 to 90 new locations planned for this year [11] - The current rate of store openings is the fastest in the company's 21-year history, indicating strong growth potential [12] Market Position and Valuation - Shake Shack's stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings ratio just shy of 200, compared to 28 for the S&P 500, suggesting a high valuation [15] - The company is guiding for 20 to 25 new restaurant openings and 14% revenue growth for the third quarter, with low-single-digit same-store sales growth expected [16] Customer Loyalty - Shake Shack has demonstrated strong customer loyalty, being recognized as having the most loyal customer base among fast-casual dining chains [9] - This loyalty is crucial for the company's pricing power, allowing it to raise prices without losing customers [8]

前言 10月中旬，美国大豆谷仓因超负荷而倒塌，800多吨大豆烂在地里。 与此同时，巴西大豆对华报价却离谱暴涨，每蒲式耳溢价高达2.9美元，中国买家集体停购，不慌不忙的表示：等两个时机 中国买家在等待什么破局时机？为何巴西会坐地起价？ 美国豆仓倒塌，巴西却坐地起价 伊利诺伊州的秋天本该是金色的，但今年，却弥漫着一股绝望的霉味。 一座巨大的大豆谷仓，再也承受不住800多吨大豆的重压，轰然倒塌！ 金黄的豆子像瀑布一样倾泻而出，埋葬了美国豆农最后的希望，他们多次向政府求助，却只等来了沉默，丰收的大豆，真的只能烂在地里吗？ 这背后，其实藏着一个我们长期忽视的致命弱点，那就是定价权！ 现在的大豆价格，是由美国的CBOT期货价，加上一个所谓的"升贴水"决定的，这就像去菜市场买菜，菜价由小贩说了算，我们这个最大的买家，却连讨价 还价的资格都没有，这简直是国际贸易中最荒诞的一幕！ 中国今年前九个月进口了8618万吨大豆，占了全球贸易量的六成多，却对价格没有发言权，这就是中国大豆贸易面临的"无根"之痛。 我们为何能从容？因为手里有三张王牌 面对巴西的漫天要价，中国买家却集体按下了暂停键，这份从容背后，是早已布下的王牌！ 我国有着 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the continued confidence of investor Duan Yongping in Kweichow Moutai, as he publicly announced his purchase of the stock again, indicating a strong belief in the company's long-term potential [3][6]. Group 1: Investment Actions and Market Performance - Duan Yongping publicly stated on October 13 that he bought more Kweichow Moutai shares, following a similar endorsement in late June [3]. - After Duan's encouragement in June, Kweichow Moutai's stock price rose from ¥1403.9 to a peak of ¥1538.02, marking a 9.6% increase over three months [3]. - As of the latest report, Kweichow Moutai's stock price was down 0.76% to ¥1419.2 per share [4]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Strategy - Duan Yongping has held Kweichow Moutai shares since 2012, experiencing over a 20-fold increase in stock price during this period, and has never sold any shares, even during industry downturns [6]. - His investment philosophy is based on the belief that Kweichow Moutai possesses unique advantages such as brand monopoly, pricing power, and inflation resistance, making it irreplaceable compared to other assets [10]. Group 3: Comparisons with Other Investments - In a response to an investor's query about alternatives to Kweichow Moutai, Duan suggested that while Shenhua may not be as strong as Moutai, it is likely a better investment than keeping money in a bank [8]. - He also emphasized that investing in Tencent would likely yield better returns than bank savings, reinforcing his view on the value of equity investments [8].

Core Viewpoint - Renowned investor Duan Yongping publicly expressed his continued confidence in Kweichow Moutai by purchasing shares, indicating a sustained bullish outlook on the leading liquor brand [1][4]. Group 1: Investment Activity - Duan Yongping bought shares of Kweichow Moutai on the 13th, marking his second public endorsement of the stock since June [1]. - Following a previous statement in late June, where he encouraged investors during a price dip, Moutai's stock rose by 9.6% over the next three months [1][5]. Group 2: Long-term Investment Strategy - Duan has held Kweichow Moutai shares since 2012, experiencing over a 20-fold increase in stock price, and has never reduced his holdings, even during industry downturns [4][5]. - His investment rationale is based on Moutai's unique advantages of brand monopoly, pricing power, and inflation resistance, which he believes are irreplaceable [7]. Group 3: Market Performance - As of the latest report, Kweichow Moutai's stock price was 1419.2 CNY, down 0.76% from the previous close [1][2]. - The stock has a 52-week high of 1626.12 CNY and a low of 1373 CNY, indicating significant volatility within the year [2].

Core Insights - Market fluctuations often signal new changes and shifts in focus, with short-term trends not being the core issue [1][2] - Recent export controls and licensing systems are aimed at both protecting national interests and enhancing pricing power, which may benefit leading companies with compliance capabilities and global operational experience [1][8] Industry Analysis - The capital expenditure growth in non-tech sectors globally has been persistently low, with significant divergence between tech and non-tech companies [3] - In China, traditional industrial sectors are experiencing a slowdown in capital expenditure growth, with only a few sectors like coal, electricity, and transportation maintaining positive growth [4] - Many traditional industries have stabilized or even improved their input-output ratios, indicating resilience among leading firms despite macroeconomic challenges [5][7] - Current valuation levels in traditional manufacturing sectors are not high, with many industries at relative bottoms in terms of return on investment [6][7] Export Controls and Market Dynamics - Recent export controls on lithium batteries, rare earths, and other materials are part of a strategy to enhance domestic production and pricing power while clearing out outdated capacities [8] - The introduction of export licensing for electric vehicles marks a shift towards prioritizing quality over quantity in exports, potentially benefiting domestic firms [8] Investment Focus - The current investment strategy emphasizes upstream resource sectors and traditional manufacturing, with a focus on balancing short-term profit realization, mid-term recovery, and long-term narratives [9] - Industries with significant global supply influence, such as cobalt, rare earths, and phosphates, are recommended for attention due to their potential for pricing power and profit generation [9]

Core Viewpoint - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion in Q3, an increase compared to Q2 [1][2] Flow Perspective - In Q3, southbound funds continued to flow into Hong Kong stocks, with a cumulative net inflow of HKD 395.2 billion, which is an increase from Q2 [2] - The outflow of foreign capital has slowed down, with a cumulative net outflow of HKD 66.4 billion in Q3, marking a decrease in outflow for three consecutive quarters [2] - The proportion of southbound holdings in Hong Kong stocks has reached a new high, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect holding amount rising from 20.7% at the end of Q2 to 21.8% at the end of Q3 [2] Industry Perspective - In Q3, the main inflows from southbound funds were into consumer discretionary, non-bank financials, and pharmaceuticals, while software and hardware saw net outflows in Q2 [3] - Foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in Hong Kong stocks, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors [3] - Southbound funds have gained significant pricing power in sectors such as semiconductors, general consumption, and general dividends over the past two years [3]