互联网平台盈透市场主管亨特（Richard Hunter）则认为，此前市场对美元贬值交易的押注已显现出固 化迹象，而当前这一交易逻辑的退潮，令那些积极寻求避险替代资产的投资者感到意外。 摩根大通策略师马尼卡迪（Federico Manicardi ）解释称，此前贵金属与全球经济复苏预期同步走高， 还受益于资金对美国大盘科技股的重新配置。 当地时间周五（30日），因美国总统特朗普提名凯文沃什出任下一届美联储主席，市场对美联储独立性 的担忧有所缓解。美元应声走高，国际黄金、白银期货价格大幅跳水。 纽约商品交易所2月交割的COMEX白银价格重挫超35%，最低触及每盎司74美元，与此同时， COMEX黄金2月合约价格下跌超10%，一度逼近4700美元；此次抛售潮蔓延至整个贵金属市场，伦敦 金属交易所LME铂金和钯金期货跌幅均超过15%，与白银一起进入技术性熊市。 分析认为，恐慌抛售或与获利了结，交易头寸过于拥挤等因素有关，而杠杆资金的爆仓可能放大了市场 波动。 缘何暴跌 随着投资者开始评估沃什获提名美联储主席的潜在影响，此前一路高歌猛进的黄金及其他贵金属涨势应 声放缓。 Evercore ISI公司副总裁古哈（Kri ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in precious metals prices, including gold and silver, is attributed to market reactions to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the next Federal Reserve Chairman, which has alleviated concerns about the Fed's independence and strengthened the dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The COMEX silver price plummeted over 35%, reaching a low of $74 per ounce, while COMEX gold fell more than 10%, nearing $4700 [1]. - Platinum and palladium futures on the London Metal Exchange (LME) also saw declines exceeding 15%, entering a technical bear market alongside silver [1]. - Analysts suggest that the panic selling was driven by profit-taking and crowded trading positions, with leveraged positions exacerbating market volatility [1][2]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The market is currently trading on "hawkish" expectations regarding Warsh's nomination, which is stabilizing the dollar and reducing the asymmetric risks of a significant dollar depreciation, leading to the sharp declines in gold and silver prices [2]. - The recent market behavior is characterized as irrational, with the drop likely resulting from "forced selling" due to the accumulation of leveraged positions in precious metals [2][3]. - Retail investor sentiment has been identified as a significant driver of recent silver price fluctuations, indicating a potential for profit-taking [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high last year, with total demand projected to exceed 5000 tons by Q4 2025, valued at $555 billion, marking a 45% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The increase in gold ETF holdings by 801 tons represents the second-highest annual growth, with a notable surge in Q4 [4]. - Despite a slowdown in central bank gold purchases, the demand for gold as a hedge and for portfolio diversification remains strong, influenced by geopolitical tensions and economic policies [5][6]. Group 4: Future Projections - A hypothesis suggests that if private investors increase their gold allocation from 3% to 4.6%, gold prices could theoretically rise to between $8000 and $8500 per ounce, although this path may be fraught with challenges [6]. - The current overbought status of gold and silver indicates a risk of profit-taking and price corrections in the short term, but the long-term bullish outlook for gold remains intact [6].