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国信证券:酒类渠道包袱加速去化 大众品品类表现分化
智通财经网· 2025-11-12 02:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the liquor industry is entering a phase of adjustment, with a consensus on reduced growth rates for 2024 and an expansion of performance declines in Q3 reports [1][2] - The food and beverage sector is expected to show stable overall volume and structural differentiation by 2025, with Q1/Q2/Q3 revenues growing by +2.5%/+2.4%/-4.77% year-on-year, and net profits declining by +0.3%/-2.1%/-14.6% [1] - The report highlights that the macroeconomic policies in Q4 could catalyze stock price increases due to low expectations in the capital market and low institutional holdings [1] Group 2 - The liquor sector is recommended for investment, particularly companies with pricing power and regional influence, such as Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Kweichow Moutai, which are expected to achieve greater growth [2] - The consumer goods sector is anticipated to stabilize and improve in 2025, driven by inventory reduction and macroeconomic policy support, with leading companies in segments like sugar-free tea and functional beverages showing strong revenue growth [3] - The snack food segment reported a revenue increase of +22.4% and an 8.6% rise in profits in Q3 2025, despite rising costs from certain raw materials [3]