近期多地气温偏低，提前过上了冬天。不少网友也有疑问："难道今年是冷冬？"（此前报道：今 冬会更冷吗？权威回应） 每年临近冬天，大家都会有关于冷暖冬的讨论。在气象预报技术日益发达的今天，预报当年是冷冬或暖 冬似乎变得"理所当然"，但事实并不那么简单。 冷冬还是暖冬，等冬季结束才知道 "根据国家标准，在全国范围内，超过一半的气象观测台站冬季平均气温满足冷冬/暖冬标准，这一年冬 季才会被判定为冷冬或是暖冬。"国家气候中心首席预报员章大全表示，在气象界冷暖冬不是一个预测 概念，而是对冬季气温状况的事后认定概念。也就是说只有等到冬季结束，才能知道答案。因此气象部 门发布的气候预测公报，通常会用较常年偏冷或偏暖来描述未来一段时间的情况。 判定冷冬的基本要素为冬季三个月的平均气温，在空间上分为单站、区域和全国三个等级。单站冷冬指 单站平均气温距平（指某一时段的平均气温与长期平均气温的差值）小于等于标准差的-0.43倍；区域 性冷冬指冷冬站数超过区域总站数的50%；而全国性冷冬则需要冷冬面积超过全国有效面积的50%。据 统计，自上世纪90年代以来，我国一共出现6个冷冬，均在2012年之前。 此外，我国冬季气候不仅与热带海温异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].