山东自西向东飘下今冬第一场大范围降雪 这场雪能下多大，下多久 今冬的雪是否姗姗来迟？上周，烟台、威海、潍坊、泰安等多地已迎来今冬初雪，但全省大范围降 雪天气，还是首次。 省气候中心专家介绍，我省常年平均初雪日为12月6日。今年12月2日，胶东半岛多地已迎来今冬初 雪。此次全省大范围降雪跟往年相比，并未明显偏晚。碰巧的是，今冬济南的初雪日跟去年十分接近， 去年是12月13日，比今年只晚了一天。 今冬是暖冬还是冷冬？根据省气象台的中期预报，本轮大范围雨雪天气后，全省气温还将快速回 升，总体来看12月全省气温较常年略偏高。 省气候中心预测，整个冬季（2025年12月—2026年2月），全省降水量较常年同期偏少2—3成，气 温较常年同期略偏高。具体来看，全省平均降水量20.0—25.0毫米，较常年同期（30.9毫米）偏少2—3 成，威海、烟台2市偏多2—3成，其他各市偏少2—3成。预计冬季全省平均气温1.0—2.0℃，较常年同期 （0.6℃）略偏高，各市略偏高。（记者 方垒） 12月12日，山东今冬首次大范围雨雪天气如约而至，齐鲁大地自西向东换上银装。省气象台于12日 16时继续发布道路结冰黄色预警和寒潮蓝色预警，并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shortening of autumn in China, highlighting that the season is becoming shorter and arriving later due to climate change and other meteorological factors [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Autumn Duration Changes - Autumn in various regions of China is generally short, with the southwest having the longest duration of about 70 to 80 days, while northeastern and northern regions experience only around 50 days [1]. - Data from 1991 to 2020 shows that many areas in eastern China have seen a delay in the onset of autumn, with cities like Zhengzhou, Ningbo, and Shenzhen experiencing delays of over 10 days [1][3]. Meteorological Analysis - Climate change has led to rising temperatures, affecting agricultural production, social economy, and daily life [3]. - Research indicates that not only is autumn arriving later, but the lengths of winter, spring, and autumn are also decreasing, with northern regions showing more significant changes than southern ones [3][5]. Specific Regional Observations - Major cities such as Changsha, Ningbo, and Hangzhou have seen a notable reduction in autumn length, with Ningbo experiencing a decrease of 12 days since the 1990s [5]. - This year, northern regions feel that autumn is particularly short due to increased rainfall and reduced sunlight, with some areas experiencing only about a month of autumn [6]. Winter Predictions - The article raises questions about whether this winter will be particularly cold, noting that the strongest cold air mass of the year is expected to affect many regions [7]. - Predictions suggest that winter temperatures may be close to or slightly above the historical average, but with significant fluctuations [7]. Temperature Trends - The article forecasts that northern regions will continue to experience lower temperatures, while southern regions will see a gradual return to normal seasonal temperatures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a strong cold air mass sweeping across China, leading to concerns about the upcoming winter temperatures and the characteristics of seasonal temperature fluctuations in the context of global warming [1][3]. Group 1: Winter Temperature Predictions - The National Climate Center predicts that this winter, temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1][3]. - The warming trend in winter temperatures is evident, with the Arctic experiencing a more pronounced temperature increase compared to tropical and subtropical regions, leading to more extreme temperature variations in China [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Changes - The transition from autumn to winter is typically rapid in many regions of China, contributing to the perception that autumn is shorter [4][7]. - Statistical data indicates that autumn has indeed shortened in many cities, particularly in eastern regions, with cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Nanning experiencing a reduction of over 10 days in autumn length compared to historical data [9]. Group 3: Overall Seasonal Length Trends - Despite the perception of a longer winter, most regions in China are experiencing a shortening of winter length due to climate change, with a slight delay in the onset of winter and an earlier arrival of spring [11].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around this winter being extremely cold has gained attention, with insights provided by Zhang Daqian, the chief forecaster at the National Climate Center [1]. Group 1: Definitions and Standards - The National Standards for "Cold Winter" (GB/T33675-2017) and "Warm Winter" (GB/T21983-2020) provide clear definitions for these terms, indicating that a winter is classified as cold or warm only if more than half of the meteorological observation stations meet the respective temperature criteria [2]. - In meteorology, the concepts of cold and warm winters are not predictive but rather retrospective classifications based on winter temperature conditions [2]. Group 2: Current Temperature Predictions - Current numerical models suggest that this winter's temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, although there will be significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [4].