Core Insights - The winter of 2025 in Guangxi is experiencing significantly higher temperatures, leading to a perception of an early spring among residents [2][3] - The average annual temperature in Guangxi for 2025 is recorded at 21.4°C, which is 0.5°C above the normal and ranks as the sixth highest since 1961 [3] - The current winter season (December 2025 to February 2026) is expected to maintain a warm trend, with average temperatures already 1.9°C higher than the historical average for the same period [3][4] Temperature Trends - The national average temperature for 2025 is projected to be 11.0°C, surpassing the previous record of 10.9°C set in 2024, indicating a broader trend of rising temperatures across the country [3] - Guangxi's average temperature for December 2025 reached 14.6°C, which is 2.4°C higher than the same month in previous years, marking it as the second highest on record [3] Warm Winter Classification - The classification of this winter as "warm" or "cold" is based on the average temperature from December to February compared to the last 30 years; a deviation of more than 0.5°C indicates a warm winter [4] - The meteorological department uses a specific threshold based on the average temperatures from 1991 to 2020 to determine the classification of winter temperatures [4]

为什么在一年中最冷的时节，成都天气却暖意十足呢？成都市气象台首席预报员周长春告诉记者，目 前，我省高空受脊前西北气流控制，出现持续晴好天气，太阳辐射增温明显，白天气温上升迅速，与此 同时，冷空气路径偏北、偏东，对四川无明显影响，因此这段时间成都回暖明显。 1月17日，数九寒天将进入"四九"时节，随着今年首场大范围寒潮"上线"，全国多地也将迎来冷暖大反 转。据了解，寒潮影响期间，我国南方地区气温下降显著，中东部地区将出现入冬以来最强雨雪冰冻天 气过程，部分地区有冻雨。 转自：成都日报锦观 "三九"隆冬为近50年成都第二暖 今年首场大寒潮将至 成都最高气温降幅超10℃ "三九"隆冬，成都却温暖如春。1月16日，成都暖阳依旧"在线"，15时全市平均气温在17℃上下。明明 是数九寒天，成都为何走出了"暖春"节奏？今天将进入"四九"，一场寒潮过程将影响我国，成都是否会 迎来暖冷大反转？记者采访成都市气象台首席预报员周长春。 昨日是"三九"（1月8日—16日）的最后一天，成都延续了"一九""二九"期间暖冬的走势。1月16日，记 者从成都市气象台获悉，截至15日，今年"三九"期间成都以晴间多云为主，平均气温为6.6℃，较常 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ningxia is experiencing an unusually warm winter, with December average temperatures reaching the fourth highest level in over 60 years, at -2.3°C, which is 2.3°C higher than the normal for this time of year [1] Group 1: Temperature Anomalies - The average temperature in Ningxia for December is reported at -2.3°C, marking it as the fourth highest since 1961 [1] - The region has experienced five cold air activities this December, which brought strong winds, dust storms, and slight cooling, but the cold air was weak, leading to rapid temperature rebounds [1] Group 2: Meteorological Analysis - A strong high-pressure ridge from Xinjiang to Central Asia is identified as the main cause of the temperature anomalies in Ningxia [1] - This high-pressure system has altered the paths of cold air sources, leading to a weaker influence from the main cold air masses, resulting in a pattern of rapid temperature rebounds after brief cooling [1] Group 3: Future Forecast - The Central Meteorological Observatory predicts that despite frequent cold air activities in the coming week, their weak intensity will not change the overall warm pattern [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province experienced its first significant snowfall of the winter on December 12, with weather warnings issued for road icing and cold waves, indicating potential impacts on transportation and agriculture [2][3]. Group 1: Weather Forecast and Impact - The strongest snowfall period is expected from the afternoon to night of December 12, with moderate to heavy snow in several cities including Heze, Jining, and Zaozhuang, while other areas may experience sleet and light to moderate snow [2]. - The snowfall is anticipated to improve soil moisture conditions and reduce forest fire risks, but it poses risks for transportation, energy supply, urban operations, public health, and agricultural facilities [2]. - The average first snowfall date for Shandong is December 6, and this year's snowfall is not significantly late compared to previous years, with Jinan's first snowfall date closely mirroring last year's [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Predictions - The mid-term forecast indicates that after the snowfall, temperatures in Shandong will rise quickly, with December temperatures expected to be slightly above the historical average [3]. - The climate center predicts that the overall winter (December 2025 to February 2026) will see precipitation 20-30% below the historical average, with average rainfall expected to be between 20.0 and 25.0 millimeters [3]. - Average winter temperatures are projected to be 1.0 to 2.0°C, slightly higher than the historical average of 0.6°C, with variations across different cities [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shortening of autumn in China, highlighting that the season is becoming shorter and arriving later due to climate change and other meteorological factors [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Autumn Duration Changes - Autumn in various regions of China is generally short, with the southwest having the longest duration of about 70 to 80 days, while northeastern and northern regions experience only around 50 days [1]. - Data from 1991 to 2020 shows that many areas in eastern China have seen a delay in the onset of autumn, with cities like Zhengzhou, Ningbo, and Shenzhen experiencing delays of over 10 days [1][3]. Meteorological Analysis - Climate change has led to rising temperatures, affecting agricultural production, social economy, and daily life [3]. - Research indicates that not only is autumn arriving later, but the lengths of winter, spring, and autumn are also decreasing, with northern regions showing more significant changes than southern ones [3][5]. Specific Regional Observations - Major cities such as Changsha, Ningbo, and Hangzhou have seen a notable reduction in autumn length, with Ningbo experiencing a decrease of 12 days since the 1990s [5]. - This year, northern regions feel that autumn is particularly short due to increased rainfall and reduced sunlight, with some areas experiencing only about a month of autumn [6]. Winter Predictions - The article raises questions about whether this winter will be particularly cold, noting that the strongest cold air mass of the year is expected to affect many regions [7]. - Predictions suggest that winter temperatures may be close to or slightly above the historical average, but with significant fluctuations [7]. Temperature Trends - The article forecasts that northern regions will continue to experience lower temperatures, while southern regions will see a gradual return to normal seasonal temperatures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a strong cold air mass sweeping across China, leading to concerns about the upcoming winter temperatures and the characteristics of seasonal temperature fluctuations in the context of global warming [1][3]. Group 1: Winter Temperature Predictions - The National Climate Center predicts that this winter, temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1][3]. - The warming trend in winter temperatures is evident, with the Arctic experiencing a more pronounced temperature increase compared to tropical and subtropical regions, leading to more extreme temperature variations in China [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Changes - The transition from autumn to winter is typically rapid in many regions of China, contributing to the perception that autumn is shorter [4][7]. - Statistical data indicates that autumn has indeed shortened in many cities, particularly in eastern regions, with cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Nanning experiencing a reduction of over 10 days in autumn length compared to historical data [9]. Group 3: Overall Seasonal Length Trends - Despite the perception of a longer winter, most regions in China are experiencing a shortening of winter length due to climate change, with a slight delay in the onset of winter and an earlier arrival of spring [11].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around this winter being extremely cold has gained attention, with insights provided by Zhang Daqian, the chief forecaster at the National Climate Center [1]. Group 1: Definitions and Standards - The National Standards for "Cold Winter" (GB/T33675-2017) and "Warm Winter" (GB/T21983-2020) provide clear definitions for these terms, indicating that a winter is classified as cold or warm only if more than half of the meteorological observation stations meet the respective temperature criteria [2]. - In meteorology, the concepts of cold and warm winters are not predictive but rather retrospective classifications based on winter temperature conditions [2]. Group 2: Current Temperature Predictions - Current numerical models suggest that this winter's temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, although there will be significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [4].