Core Insights - The winter of 2025 in Guangxi is experiencing significantly higher temperatures, leading to a perception of an early spring among residents [2][3] - The average annual temperature in Guangxi for 2025 is recorded at 21.4°C, which is 0.5°C above the normal and ranks as the sixth highest since 1961 [3] - The current winter season (December 2025 to February 2026) is expected to maintain a warm trend, with average temperatures already 1.9°C higher than the historical average for the same period [3][4] Temperature Trends - The national average temperature for 2025 is projected to be 11.0°C, surpassing the previous record of 10.9°C set in 2024, indicating a broader trend of rising temperatures across the country [3] - Guangxi's average temperature for December 2025 reached 14.6°C, which is 2.4°C higher than the same month in previous years, marking it as the second highest on record [3] Warm Winter Classification - The classification of this winter as "warm" or "cold" is based on the average temperature from December to February compared to the last 30 years; a deviation of more than 0.5°C indicates a warm winter [4] - The meteorological department uses a specific threshold based on the average temperatures from 1991 to 2020 to determine the classification of winter temperatures [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent emergence of La Niña conditions has sparked public speculation about a potential "cold winter," but experts emphasize the complexity of climate predictions and the need for rational interpretation of such signals [1][2]. Group 1: La Niña Status vs. La Niña Event - The National Climate Center reported that the La Niña index reached -0.5°C in October, indicating the onset of La Niña conditions, but this does not equate to a La Niña event, which requires a sustained index below -0.5°C for at least five months [1]. - La Niña conditions are part of the ENSO phenomenon, which includes both warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases, and the distinction between status and event is crucial for accurate climate forecasting [1]. Group 2: Winter Weather Predictions - Current models suggest that while La Niña conditions are likely to persist this winter, the probability of a new La Niña event forming is low, reducing fears of a "double La Niña" scenario [2]. - Historically, La Niña events have been associated with colder winters in China, particularly in the central and eastern regions, but this correlation is not absolute, especially in the context of global warming [2][3]. Group 3: Climate Variability and Predictions - The frequency of warm winters during La Niña years has increased since 1986, with a 50% chance of colder winters during the last eight La Niña events [3]. - Current predictions indicate that most regions in China will experience temperatures close to or above the seasonal average, with significant fluctuations expected, leading to alternating periods of warming and cooling [4]. - The public is advised to rely on official meteorological forecasts and to understand the implications of La Niña conditions without overreacting [4].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong province experienced its first significant snowfall of the winter on December 12, with weather warnings issued for road icing and cold waves, indicating potential impacts on transportation and agriculture [2][3]. Group 1: Weather Forecast and Impact - The strongest snowfall period is expected from the afternoon to night of December 12, with moderate to heavy snow in several cities including Heze, Jining, and Zaozhuang, while other areas may experience sleet and light to moderate snow [2]. - The snowfall is anticipated to improve soil moisture conditions and reduce forest fire risks, but it poses risks for transportation, energy supply, urban operations, public health, and agricultural facilities [2]. - The average first snowfall date for Shandong is December 6, and this year's snowfall is not significantly late compared to previous years, with Jinan's first snowfall date closely mirroring last year's [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Predictions - The mid-term forecast indicates that after the snowfall, temperatures in Shandong will rise quickly, with December temperatures expected to be slightly above the historical average [3]. - The climate center predicts that the overall winter (December 2025 to February 2026) will see precipitation 20-30% below the historical average, with average rainfall expected to be between 20.0 and 25.0 millimeters [3]. - Average winter temperatures are projected to be 1.0 to 2.0°C, slightly higher than the historical average of 0.6°C, with variations across different cities [3].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the increased risk of respiratory infections, such as influenza, due to cold weather and environmental factors, urging the public to take these health threats seriously [1][3] - It clarifies the misconception that influenza is just a severe form of a cold, highlighting the significant differences in symptoms, severity, and treatment between the two [2][3] - The article stresses the importance of timely medical attention for severe flu symptoms to prevent complications [3] Group 2 - It debunks the myth that having had influenza provides lifelong immunity, explaining the virus's ability to mutate and the diminishing effectiveness of antibodies over time [4] - The article discusses the misconception that an early winter indicates a cold winter, explaining that early onset does not correlate with overall winter temperatures [5][6] - It addresses the common belief that antihypertensive medications weaken blood vessels, clarifying that high blood pressure is the actual cause of vascular issues [7] Group 3 - The article refutes the claim that coffee and carbonated drinks harm bone health, stating that moderate consumption does not significantly affect osteoporosis risk [8] - It dismisses the idea that WiFi routers can cause cancer, explaining that the radiation emitted is non-ionizing and not harmful to human health [9] - It corrects the notion that sleeping on one side leads to uneven shoulders, attributing such conditions primarily to genetic factors and posture [10][11] Group 4 - The article critiques the belief that meal replacement foods can lead to effortless weight loss, warning about potential nutritional deficiencies and the importance of combining diet with exercise for effective weight management [12]

Group 1 - The "Beijing Language University International Cultural Park" has opened, featuring a unique theme based on the university's international characteristics and academic strengths, aiming to serve the cultural life of citizens [8] - The Beijing Subway Line 8's Dahongmen Station officially opened on November 8, enhancing connectivity with Line 10 and significantly improving cross-district travel for residents [11] - The "Daoxiang Huahai" light show has evolved into a distinctive brand that integrates agricultural experiences, intangible cultural heritage, and cultural tourism consumption, reflecting a shift from traditional agriculture to high-quality development in the region [17] Group 2 - The "Huangchenggen Ruins Park" has completed its all-age-friendly renovation project, attracting many visitors to its picturesque ginkgo tree path during the autumn season [19] - The Baiwater Temple Forest Park's water cypress forest has entered its prime viewing period, offering scenic autumn landscapes [21] - The Shougang Park has welcomed the opening of two brands, "Yili" and "Beiping Ice Factory," enhancing the cultural and lifestyle atmosphere around the Shougang Ski Jump [23]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current market for thermal coal is stable, with port prices holding steady at 770 RMB/ton. The supply side shows an increase in daily average inflow to 1.9057 million tons, up 11.79% week-on-week, while daily average outflow rose to 2.0233 million tons, an increase of 18.40% [1][2] - As the northern regions enter the heating season, electricity consumption is expected to rise, while southern regions see a decline in power load. With sufficient inventory, coal prices are anticipated to remain volatile [2] - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and elasticity in thermal coal production [3][37] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,954.79 points, down 1.05% week-on-week, while the coal sector index fell by 0.78% to 2,943.60 points [11] 2. Thermal Coal Prices - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port remained stable at 770 RMB/ton. Prices for different grades of thermal coal varied, with some regions experiencing price increases [17][19] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased to 23.169 million tons, down 3.34% week-on-week. The number of anchored vessels increased to 109, reflecting a 17.00% rise [32][27] 4. International Prices - International thermal coal prices showed slight increases, with the Newcastle coal price index rising by 0.59 USD/ton to 103.74 USD/ton [19] 5. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests a preference for resource stocks in the current market environment [37]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the uncertainty surrounding whether this winter will be cold or warm, emphasizing that definitive conclusions can only be drawn after the season ends [2][4]. Summary by Sections Climate Predictions - The determination of a cold or warm winter is based on the average temperature over three months, with specific criteria for single stations, regional, and national assessments [2]. - Since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Weather Conditions - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan are 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The current state of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, potentially leading to a La Niña phenomenon, which historically correlates with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - Despite the likelihood of a colder winter, global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4]. Extreme Weather Events - The article highlights that extreme cold waves can occur even in warmer winters, as public perception is often influenced by significant temperature fluctuations rather than average temperatures [4][6]. - The phenomenon of extreme cold waves is explained by the weakening of the westerly winds due to global warming, allowing polar air to move southward more easily [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shortening of autumn in China, highlighting that the season is becoming shorter and arriving later due to climate change and other meteorological factors [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Autumn Duration Changes - Autumn in various regions of China is generally short, with the southwest having the longest duration of about 70 to 80 days, while northeastern and northern regions experience only around 50 days [1]. - Data from 1991 to 2020 shows that many areas in eastern China have seen a delay in the onset of autumn, with cities like Zhengzhou, Ningbo, and Shenzhen experiencing delays of over 10 days [1][3]. Meteorological Analysis - Climate change has led to rising temperatures, affecting agricultural production, social economy, and daily life [3]. - Research indicates that not only is autumn arriving later, but the lengths of winter, spring, and autumn are also decreasing, with northern regions showing more significant changes than southern ones [3][5]. Specific Regional Observations - Major cities such as Changsha, Ningbo, and Hangzhou have seen a notable reduction in autumn length, with Ningbo experiencing a decrease of 12 days since the 1990s [5]. - This year, northern regions feel that autumn is particularly short due to increased rainfall and reduced sunlight, with some areas experiencing only about a month of autumn [6]. Winter Predictions - The article raises questions about whether this winter will be particularly cold, noting that the strongest cold air mass of the year is expected to affect many regions [7]. - Predictions suggest that winter temperatures may be close to or slightly above the historical average, but with significant fluctuations [7]. Temperature Trends - The article forecasts that northern regions will continue to experience lower temperatures, while southern regions will see a gradual return to normal seasonal temperatures [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of a strong cold air mass sweeping across China, leading to concerns about the upcoming winter temperatures and the characteristics of seasonal temperature fluctuations in the context of global warming [1][3]. Group 1: Winter Temperature Predictions - The National Climate Center predicts that this winter, temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, but with significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [1][3]. - The warming trend in winter temperatures is evident, with the Arctic experiencing a more pronounced temperature increase compared to tropical and subtropical regions, leading to more extreme temperature variations in China [3]. Group 2: Seasonal Changes - The transition from autumn to winter is typically rapid in many regions of China, contributing to the perception that autumn is shorter [4][7]. - Statistical data indicates that autumn has indeed shortened in many cities, particularly in eastern regions, with cities like Hefei, Guangzhou, and Nanning experiencing a reduction of over 10 days in autumn length compared to historical data [9]. Group 3: Overall Seasonal Length Trends - Despite the perception of a longer winter, most regions in China are experiencing a shortening of winter length due to climate change, with a slight delay in the onset of winter and an earlier arrival of spring [11].