近期多地气温偏低，提前过上了冬天。不少网友也有疑问："难道今年是冷冬？"（此前报道：今 冬会更冷吗？权威回应） 每年临近冬天，大家都会有关于冷暖冬的讨论。在气象预报技术日益发达的今天，预报当年是冷冬或暖 冬似乎变得"理所当然"，但事实并不那么简单。 冷冬还是暖冬，等冬季结束才知道 "根据国家标准，在全国范围内，超过一半的气象观测台站冬季平均气温满足冷冬/暖冬标准，这一年冬 季才会被判定为冷冬或是暖冬。"国家气候中心首席预报员章大全表示，在气象界冷暖冬不是一个预测 概念，而是对冬季气温状况的事后认定概念。也就是说只有等到冬季结束，才能知道答案。因此气象部 门发布的气候预测公报，通常会用较常年偏冷或偏暖来描述未来一段时间的情况。 判定冷冬的基本要素为冬季三个月的平均气温，在空间上分为单站、区域和全国三个等级。单站冷冬指 单站平均气温距平（指某一时段的平均气温与长期平均气温的差值）小于等于标准差的-0.43倍；区域 性冷冬指冷冬站数超过区域总站数的50%；而全国性冷冬则需要冷冬面积超过全国有效面积的50%。据 统计，自上世纪90年代以来，我国一共出现6个冷冬，均在2012年之前。 此外，我国冬季气候不仅与热带海温异 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unpredictability of winter temperatures in China, highlighting that while this winter is expected to be warmer overall, significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods are anticipated [1][4]. Summary by Sections Winter Temperature Predictions - The classification of a winter as "cold" or "warm" is determined post-season based on average temperatures across various meteorological stations, with specific criteria for national, regional, and single-station assessments [2][3]. - The article notes that since the 1990s, China has experienced six cold winters, all occurring before 2012 [2]. Current Temperature Trends - Recent monitoring indicates that average temperatures in regions such as northern Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, North China, Northeast China, Huanghuai, and Jianghan have been 1°C to 3°C lower than the same period in previous years, with some areas experiencing drops of 4°C to 5°C [3]. Influencing Factors - The article mentions that the current state of the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean is cooler than usual, which may lead to a La Niña event, typically associated with lower temperatures in China during winter [4]. - However, the impact of global warming has led to instances of warmer winters even during La Niña years, indicating a complex interplay of factors affecting winter temperatures [4][6]. Extreme Weather Events - The article explains that despite the overall warming trend, extreme cold events can still occur due to changes in atmospheric circulation patterns, particularly the weakening of the westerly winds that usually contain polar air [5][6]. - This phenomenon suggests that global warming can coexist with severe cold spells, leading to more pronounced temperature fluctuations during winter [6].

很多人觉得今年北方的秋季很短，短短十几天，仿佛从夏天一下跳到冬天。 从气温变化来看，9月底还是全国大部明显偏暖，尤其东北更是暖到异常；但从10月8日开始，接连几波冷空气过后，中东部地区则快进成了明显偏冷的状 态。秋天真的变短了吗？ 不是错觉！ 秋天真的在变短 我国各地的秋天普遍不长，西南地区相对较长，大概在70至80天，除去春秋相连不列入盘点的昆明外，贵阳、成都、重庆在秋季长度上遥遥领先，最长的贵 阳达79天。而秋季最短暂的地区要数东北和华北，大多在50天上下。 通过盘点气象大数据发现，1991年至今，我国多地的秋季都在推迟，总体来说东部地区比西部地区明显。 对比1991年至2020年逐十年的平均入秋日期，郑州、宁波、深圳等地的秋季推迟幅度最大，超过10天，南京、合肥、杭州、南昌、厦门、福州、青岛、兰 州、银川、乌鲁木齐等城市的秋季也比之前晚了5天至9天。 气象分析师介绍，在全球气候变暖的大背景下，各地气温逐渐升高已经成为一个不争事实，并影响到农业生产、社会经济和人们的日常生活。 △黑龙江哈尔滨 通过近三十年的气象数据，1991年以来，我国多地秋季的变化情况与研究结果较为一致。大城市中，长沙、宁波、杭州、上海 ...

10月15日开始，今年下半年以来最强冷空气席卷我国大部分地区，大江南北都提前感受到了常年11月甚 至12月才会出现的寒凉。随之而来的，关于"今年冬天气温很低"的说法引起关注。那么，今年冬天是冷 冬吗？冷冬和暖冬的判别标准是什么？今年冬天气温状况将会如何发展？ 国家气候中心首席预报员 章大全：目前国内外数值模式预测，今年冬季我国气温接近常年同期到偏暖 为主，但是气温的阶段性特征比较明显，冷暖起伏大。在全球变暖的背景下，一方面，我国冬季平均气 温增暖的趋势非常明显，另外一方面，北极地区气温上升的幅度明显高于热带和副热带地区，我国冬季 气温冷暖波动会更为剧烈，需要密切关注阶段性的强降温和强升温过程，对生产生活可能造成的不利影 响。 入冬的标准是什么？ 今天迎来霜降，已是秋天的最后一个节气，对于即将到来的这个冬天，气温状况会如何发展？入冬的标 准是什么？戳视频↓↓↓听专家解读。 今冬气温冷暖起伏大是何原因？ 今冬气温阶段性特征明显，冷暖起伏大。这又是什么原因造成的呢？据国家气候中心首席预报员 章大 全介绍，在全球变暖的背景下，一方面，我国冬季平均气温增暖趋势十分明显。另一方面，北极地区气 温上升的幅度明显高于热带和副 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around this winter being extremely cold has gained attention, with insights provided by Zhang Daqian, the chief forecaster at the National Climate Center [1]. Group 1: Definitions and Standards - The National Standards for "Cold Winter" (GB/T33675-2017) and "Warm Winter" (GB/T21983-2020) provide clear definitions for these terms, indicating that a winter is classified as cold or warm only if more than half of the meteorological observation stations meet the respective temperature criteria [2]. - In meteorology, the concepts of cold and warm winters are not predictive but rather retrospective classifications based on winter temperature conditions [2]. Group 2: Current Temperature Predictions - Current numerical models suggest that this winter's temperatures in China will be close to or slightly warmer than the historical average, although there will be significant fluctuations between cold and warm periods [4].

02 01 专家研判 今年秋冬或形成 一次弱拉尼娜事件 根据近期海洋和大气监测情况，国家海洋环境预报中心预测，今年冬季，我国渤海、东海南部海温预计 略偏高0.5℃到1℃，黄海、东海中部与北部海温预计偏高1℃到2℃，南海大部海温接近常年平均水平。 专家还表示，根据监测，今年秋冬季赤道中东太平洋将处于中性偏冷状态，可能形成一次弱拉尼娜事 件。 国家海洋环境预报中心助理研究员 史珍：在海洋中，我们划定了几个非常重要的监测海温的区域指 标，其中用尼诺3.4区的指数，来监测厄尔尼诺现象和拉尼娜现象。当这个指数连续五个月低于-0.5℃， 就认为形成拉尼娜事件，相反就是形成了厄尔尼诺事件。 拉尼娜会带来极寒冷冬吗? 拉尼娜事件是指赤道中、东太平洋海表温度异常，出现大范围偏冷且强度和持续时间达到一定条件的现 象。 2021年—2023年的"三重"拉尼娜期间，华北在2021年冬季有60多个气象观测站最低气温突破或达到建站 以来的历史极值，内蒙古多地更是遭遇了有历史气象记录以来的最强暴风雪，有超过 11.8 亿人口和 90% 的地区(包括海南)都受到了影响。 许多人以为拉尼娜的出现，意味着我国冬天将变得更冷，甚至带来超强寒潮，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant drop in temperatures across Shandong province is attributed to the influence of cold air masses, marking a shift from previous weather patterns characterized by persistent rainfall to a drier and colder climate [2][3]. Summary by Sections Current Weather Conditions - Shandong province has experienced a dramatic decline in temperatures, with the lowest recorded temperature at -0.2℃ on October 21, marking a new low for the second half of the year [2]. - The average temperature for October in Shandong is typically around 15.2℃, but current temperatures have fallen below this average, approaching the climate levels expected in November [2]. Causes of Temperature Drop - The primary reason for the ongoing low temperatures is the intensified cold air activity from Siberia, which has been able to penetrate the province due to the retreat of the subtropical high pressure [3]. - This cold air has not only caused a drop in temperatures but has also led to a shift from a "wet cold" to a "dry cold" climate, resulting in clearer skies as moisture is dispersed [3]. Short-term Weather Forecast - A gradual warming trend is expected from October 22 to 24, although the increase in temperatures will be slow [3]. - Following this brief warming period, a weak cold air mass is anticipated to bring light rain and a subsequent drop in temperatures around October 25 to 26 [3]. Long-term Weather Predictions - For November, the average temperature is projected to be between 7.5℃ and 8.5℃, slightly above the normal average of 7.5℃, with precipitation expected to be 20-50% lower than usual [4]. - The winter of 2025 is forecasted to have an average temperature of 1.0℃ to 2.0℃, which is also above the normal average of 0.6℃, with overall precipitation expected to be lower than average [4].

Core Viewpoint - The dividend sector, particularly banks and coal, is showing resilience amid increasing market volatility, with significant inflows into dividend-themed ETFs indicating a preference for high-yield assets [1][2][3] Summary by Category Market Performance - On October 20, the CSI Dividend Index rose by 0.74%, with a trading volume of 61.843 billion yuan, indicating active trading [2] - The coal and energy stocks led the gains, with Pingmei Shenma (601666) up over 9% and Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699) up over 7% [2] Fund Flows - Last week, the total net inflow into dividend-themed ETFs reached 4.258 billion yuan, with Huatai-PB CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF receiving the most at 2.773 billion yuan [3] - Bank ETFs were particularly favored, with several gaining over 5% and a total net inflow exceeding 8 billion yuan [3] Sector Analysis - Long-term prospects for the coal sector are positive, with expectations of a cold winter potentially leading to price increases similar to previous years [2] - The banking sector is expected to maintain stable performance, with a projected increase in dividends and a favorable risk-return profile [3][4] Investment Strategy - Analysts recommend focusing on high-dividend blue-chip stocks, such as those in the banking and public utility sectors, which are suitable for conservative investors [4] - The market is also advised to consider high-growth sectors like renewable energy and AI, although these come with higher volatility [4]

Core Points - The province officially entered meteorological winter on October 17, three days earlier than the average date in previous years [1] - The start of winter is defined as the first day when the average daily temperature remains below 10°C for five consecutive days [1] - The province is currently experiencing significant temperature drops due to the strongest cold air mass of the year, with maximum temperatures falling to around 10°C [1] - Some areas, including Fushun, Benxi, and Tieling, are expected to see light snow [1] - The cold air mass is projected to reach its peak between October 19 and October 20, with minimum temperatures dropping below freezing, marking the lowest temperatures since the beginning of the second half of the year [1] - Meteorological experts indicate that an early onset of winter does not necessarily correlate with a cold winter, as there is no inherent connection between the two [1]