Group 1 - In early January, international crude oil prices exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, reaching a three-month high after a five-day consecutive rise [3] - Domestic diesel inventory levels among trading units increased to 29.65% of capacity as of January 15, 2026, up 0.55 percentage points from the previous month and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The market sentiment improved due to rising crude oil prices, leading to increased replenishment operations by trading units, although diesel demand expectations weakened, limiting the extent of inventory recovery [3][6] Group 2 - Diesel wholesale prices remained under pressure despite a rise in crude oil prices, as many sales units faced unmet monthly sales targets and weak demand [3] - The price difference between wholesale and retail for diesel increased significantly, while gasoline prices showed mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases due to better demand expectations [5] - The average theoretical profit for domestic refined diesel was 1583 CNY/ton, up 4.28% from the previous month, while gasoline profits showed a mixed performance with some declines [5] Group 3 - Forecasts indicate that diesel demand is expected to weaken further in late January due to uncertainties in geopolitical situations and the impact of extreme cold weather on logistics and construction activities [6] - The likelihood of a retail price increase for refined oil products is anticipated, but the expected adjustment range is limited, leading to a cautious market outlook [6] - Overall, it is expected that diesel prices may decline by around 100 CNY/ton in late January, as trading units focus on inventory digestion with low replenishment willingness [6]