Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged significantly, reaching a high of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it has surpassed 7.12, driven by a combination of stable exchange rate policies, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][1][1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated over 340 points in a single day, indicating strong market momentum [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's performance to a balanced approach in exchange rate policy and favorable conditions in the domestic equity market [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point cut in September [1][1][1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on two key upcoming data releases: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the non-farm payroll report [1][1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist suggests that the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, depending on economic data performance [1][1][1]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that as of June, 64% of tariff costs are absorbed by U.S. companies, 22% by U.S. consumers, and 14% by foreign exporters [1] - Tariffs have caused the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to rise by 0.2 percentage points as of June, with an expected additional increase of 0.66 percentage points for the remainder of the year [1] - The core PCE inflation rate is projected to reach 3.2% year-on-year, but would moderate to 2.4% when excluding tariff impacts [1] Group 2 - Early earnings reports convey mixed signals regarding profit margin outlook, with companies announcing only slight price increases so far [2] - Companies facing significant tariff impacts are raising prices more substantially, while those unable to pass on costs may experience pressure on profit margins [2] - Some companies are leveraging accumulated inventory to mitigate the impact of tariffs on their profit margins, with the inventory-to-sales ratio for S&P 500 constituents remaining stable [2]