今日周一(11月24日)欧盘时段，白银期货目前交投于11821一线上方，今日开盘于11715元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂报11852元/千克，下跌0.77%，最高触及11977元/千克，最低下探11689元/千克，目前来 看，白银期货盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 值得注意的是，美联储12月议息会议结果公布是当月11日，此前11月非农就业报告改期至12月16日发 布，这意味着美联储官员在议息会议前无法获得关键的"11月CPI报告+非农就业报告。" 另外美联储理事米兰上周五表示，昨日（美国9月非农）数据的影响"明显偏向鸽派"。米兰指出，目前 数据不足并不意味着我们没有预测，我们应以预测为导向，而非数据导向。米兰表示，"若我的投票成 为关键一票，将支持降息25个基点。"米兰认为，劳动力市场数据不如我们预期的强劲，而CPI数据预计 要等到下次FOMC会议之后才会公布。 【最新白银期货行情解析】 沪银上周最大的区间在12300/11700，按照周期性表现来看，沪银还是在低位震荡走势中，本周继续上 周的话还是先看12300得失，不破12300就看震荡，破位12300后再看大涨空间，所以，本周沪银的交易 还是保持低多，以下方 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金代理 对金价影响的主要压力： 后续重点关注： 美联储的政策信号：这是黄金市场的核心驱动力。务必关注12月FOMC会议前各位美联储官员的讲话，任何关于利率路径的暗示都可能引起市场波动。 美国9月非农数据强劲 (新增11.9万，远超预期5万) ，美联储12月降息预期大幅降温 (概率从上周的45%降至约30%-40%) ，美元走强，利空黄金 潜在支撑：全球科技股暴跌引发避险情绪 ，央行购金的长期趋势仍在 ，金价大跌可能刺激实物黄金需求，利多黄金 关键点位与看法 阻力位：关注 4110美元 和 4130-4140美元 区域。如果金价反弹至这些位置附近并出现上涨乏力迹象，可以考虑轻仓试空。 支撑位：重点关注4020美元。若金价在此企稳并出现看涨K线形态，可考虑轻仓博取反弹。 突破策略：如果金价有效跌破4020美元的支撑，短期下跌空间可能会打开，届时可考虑反弹时轻仓跟进空单。反之，若金价强势突破4140美元，则可能引发 进一步的上行，但当前基本面支持这种走势的概率相对较小。 短期来看，黄金预计会继续在4000美元以上的区间内震荡盘整。一方面，4000美 ...

基本面： 周五（11月21日）现货白银小幅走低，因延迟公布的美国9月非农就业报告表现超预期，削弱了市场对12月美联储降息的预期，贵金属市场买需降温。该数 据促使交易员重新评估短期政策前景，黄金价格同期持平，未能为尾盘白银走势提供支撑。就业数据超预期，美联储降息预期受限美国9月新增非农就业人 数达11.9万人，显著高于市场预期的5万人。尽管7月和8月数据被下修，但整体就业增长动能仍超出市场预期。 失业率维持在4.4%，为2021年末以来最高水平。其他劳动力及制造业数据显示经济活动放缓但未崩溃，11月地区工厂订单及出货量回落至收缩区间。国债 收益率持稳，交易员消化数据影响美国国债收益率基本持平，10年期国债收益率报4.117%左右，2年期收益率约3.571%。非农数据公布前收益率小幅上行， 公布后有所回落，但跌幅不足以对贵金属形成实质性支撑。 12月美联储降息的实现需要非农数据显著疲软——而周四公布的数据并未满足这一条件。在收益率持稳而非大幅下行的背景下，白银缺乏上涨动能。美元先 涨后跌，对白银提振有限数据公布前，交易员为就业数据可能的上行风险布局，美元指数走强至100.360。数据超预期公布后，随着收益率降温， ...

美联储哈玛克：非农就业报告"略显过时"，但符合预期。就业数据看起来有些喜忧参半，凸显了货币政 策面临的挑战。 ...

来源：华夏时报 文/冉学东 近期，美联储12月降息的可能性显著降低。一方面，由于美国政府停摆，导致10月非农就业报告不能发 布；另一方面，上月货币政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策者对12月是否降息存在严重分歧，认为今年不 必再降息的人数未达到多数，但超过了支持降息的人数，一些中间派要视数据而定。受此影响，美元指 数再度上涨，涨超100点。 11月19日，美国劳工统计局表示，将不会单独发布10月非农就业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月 报告。11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，比原计划晚了一个多星期，并且是在美联储今年最后一次 会议之后公布。9月非农就业报告将于本周四发布。 非农就业报告是美联储利率决策最关键的数据，尤其是在此次降息周期中，美国通胀数据仍然在控制目 标之上，但是非农就业超出意料的下行，再加上特朗普政府极限施压，才开始再次降息。 美国劳工统计局更新后的发布时间表，使美联储失去了支持降息论点的关键证据，决策者对通胀前景的 判断上分歧进一步加剧。许多投资者已经确定12月暂停降息，联邦基金利率将维持在3.75%至4%的区间 不变。 受美联储12月降息预期弱化的影响，美元指数在11月19日上涨0.59 ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为36.2%，维持利率不变的概率为63.8%。此 前，美国劳工统计局取消发布10月非农就业报告，称将与11月数据合并。 ...

Group 1: Gold ETF Holdings - The iShares Silver Trust report indicates that as of October 9, the gold ETF holdings amounted to 1013.44 tons, a decrease of 1.14 tons from the previous trading day [1] - On October 9, the spot gold price closed at $3975.89 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 1.58%, with an intraday high of $4057.76 and a low of $3944.29 [1] Group 2: U.S. Labor Statistics - Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is preparing to release the September CPI data, although the specific release date is uncertain and will not be on the originally scheduled October 15 [3] - The Bureau has halted all operations during the funding interruption, which delayed the release of the non-farm payroll report [3] - Some employees have been recalled to complete the report preparation, and the decision to release the data is linked to the annual Social Security cost adjustment process [3][4] - The delay in the September price data may postpone the announcement of the cost-of-living adjustments [3]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the non-farm payroll report due to the government shutdown, but private sector indicators suggest a weak hiring environment, limited layoffs, moderate wage growth, and a cooling labor demand in September [1] Group 1 - Recent private sector indicators show weak hiring and limited layoffs in September, aligning with the low hiring and layoff trends observed before the government data suspension [1] - Wage growth remains moderate, indicating a stable but cautious labor market [1] - Michael Feroli, Chief U.S. Economist at JPMorgan, suggests that the Federal Reserve can confidently consider interest rate cuts later this month based on the current labor market conditions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar remained stable due to the ongoing government shutdown, which is expected to delay the release of the important nonfarm payrolls report originally scheduled for Friday [1] Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown is impacting the release of key economic data [1] - The nonfarm payrolls report is a significant indicator for the labor market and economic health [1] - The stability of the dollar amidst uncertainty reflects market reactions to government actions [1]

Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]