本次美联储大概率降息25个基点，该预期已被市场提前消化。此前市场曾押注降息50个基点并推动黄金 提前走高，实际降息25个基点对多头的提振效果有限，更多是"预期落地后的行情反馈"。 鲍威尔讲话成关键变量：讲话方向直接决定黄金后续走势。若明确表示"延续渐进式降息"，多头或获进 一步爆发动能；若释放"降息周期终结"信号，空头大概率加速下行；结合当前背景，博主预判鲍威尔 或"打太极"，甚至倾向暗示终结降息。美经济数据因政府关门未公布，美联储缺乏数据支撑政策调整； 叠加特朗普重启贸易政策，双重因素对美联储政策推进形成干扰，需重点关注晚间讲话中对政策走向的 表述。地缘政治因素可能限制黄金的跌幅。如果中东的敌对行动再次爆发，金价可能会收复过去两周的 部分损失，并有望重新回到4000美元/盎司的水平。黄金是不确定时期的传统对冲工具，也是一种无收 益资产。受地缘政治和贸易紧张局势以及美国利率下调的推动，黄金价格今年已上涨51%。除此之外， 根据Prime Market Terminal利率概率工具，预计美联储将在周三的会议上降息25个基点，随后在12月 再次降息。如果各国央行恢复购买黄金，黄金价格也可能上涨。 换资前言： 交易 ...

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周二在费城全美商业经济协会会议上指出，美国经济正处于"就业低迷与通胀高企"的双重困境。9月劳动力市场延续"低招聘、低 裁员"特征，企业招聘意愿疲软与消费者支出强劲形成矛盾。鲍威尔强调，这种非典型经济表现需要政策制定者密切追踪演变路径。 美联储副主席鲍曼与波士顿联储主席柯林斯均支持渐进式降息路径。鲍曼预计2025年最后两次会议将各降息25个基点，前提是经济数据符合预期。她认为特 朗普关税政策不会导致持续性通胀，当前风险更偏向就业市场。 历史经验显示，2019年9月QT期间的流动性短缺事件曾迫使美联储紧急干预。为避免重蹈覆辙，美联储新增了常设回购工具以应对潜在压力。鲍威尔警告， 若取消美联储支付准备金利息的能力，将导致利率失控并引发国债市场动荡，直接威胁金融稳定。 劳动力市场隐忧与政策辩论价值 针对就业市场，鲍威尔警示企业招聘减少可能引发失业率上升。尽管9月就业报告因政府关门延迟发布，但多项指标显示裁员率与招聘难度持续下降，这种 趋势若延续将放大经济下行风险。 他特别强调美联储内部政策辩论的积极意义，认为官员们通过充分论证各自立场，能够避免"无风险政策路径"的幻觉。每季度发布的政策预测应被 ...

格隆汇9月19日｜丹斯克银行分析师Mohamad Al-Saraf在报告中表示，由于美联储不太可能像市场预期 的那样激进降息，美元存在短期反弹空间。他指出："尽管市场当前预期美联储将在10月和12月连续降 息，但我们认为，经济数据更支持'渐进式降息'策略，预计美联储会在12月再次降息。"不过，Al-Saraf 补充道，从长期来看，美元仍将走向疲软。丹斯克银行预计，未来12个月欧元对美元汇率将升至1.23， 这一判断的支撑因素包括：欧元区与美国的利差优势、欧洲市场逐步复苏、投资者为对冲美元贬值风险 而调整持仓，以及市场对美国机构的信心下降。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, 2025, aligning with market expectations[4] - The median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2025 was revised down from 3.9% to 3.6%, indicating approximately two more rate cuts expected this year[7] - The decision reflected a cautious approach within the Federal Reserve, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points[6] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Market Reactions - Powell emphasized a balance between employment and inflation, acknowledging rising unemployment while warning of persistent inflation risks[7] - Following the rate cut announcement, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields initially fell to a new low since April but later rebounded, indicating a hawkish interpretation of Powell's comments[10] - The U.S. retail sales in August increased by 0.6%, exceeding market expectations, suggesting ongoing economic resilience[19] Group 3: Risks and Future Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policies again[24] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and their impact on market volatility remain a concern, particularly regarding the Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine conflicts[24] - The rising public debt and its implications for future fiscal policy could pose challenges for economic stability[19]

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特对美联储周四降息25个基点的决定表示了认可，尽管此前美国总统特朗 普及其盟友一直施压要求采取更大幅度的行动。 过去，特朗普曾对美联储发起猛烈抨击，给主席鲍威尔起了个"太迟先生"的绰号，并呼吁进行迅速而激 进的降息。特朗普曾暗示，基准的联邦基金利率应降低3个百分点，这一立场并未在最新发布的FOMC 对未来政策路径的更新预测中得到体现。 哈塞特指出，美国第三季度经济增长强劲，趋势超过3%，这种情况通常不支持降低利率，尤其是在通 胀率仍高于美联储2%目标的情况下。 然而，特朗普曾表示，需要降息来支持陷入困境的美国房地产市场，并帮助管理国家37万亿美元债务的 融资成本。 哈塞特说，评估当前各种经济变量并决定进行渐进式降息，是一个恰当的举动。他的名字也曾出现在特 朗普挑选明年接替鲍威尔担任美联储主席的候选人短名单上。哈塞特说： "我认为，对美联储来说，审视所有模型，听取各种不同意见，然后决定'在一个通胀正在减 速但仍高于目标的经济体中，我们究竟该怎么做？'是更为审慎的做法，他们在这个决定中 做出了折中选择，我认为那可能是一个相当审慎的决定。" 在周四接受采访时，哈塞特指出，本届政府以及新任美 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4.00%-4.25%, a decrease of 25 basis points, marking the first rate cut in nine months[2] - The median dot plot indicates the Fed expects three rate cuts this year, an increase from the previous forecast, with one additional cut expected next year[2] - The decision reflects a shift in focus from inflation to employment, as employment growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has slightly increased[6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Forecasts - Non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[7] - The Fed revised down non-farm employment data for April 2024 to March 2025 by 911,000, the largest historical revision[7] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for this year from 1.4% to 1.6% while lowering unemployment rate expectations for the next two years[8] Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - Core PCE inflation is expected to be influenced by tariffs, contributing only 0.3-0.4 percentage points, indicating a slower and smaller impact than anticipated[7] - The Fed's inflation target is now projected to be reached by 2028, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation in the medium term[8] Group 4: Future Policy Uncertainty - The internal policy divergence within the Fed is significant, with 9 members expecting two more cuts this year, while 6 do not foresee any further cuts[9] - The likelihood of continuous rate cuts remains uncertain, as economic data and political factors will heavily influence future decisions[12] - The Fed's gradual approach aims to balance employment stability with inflation control, avoiding rapid rate adjustments[10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - The consensus in the market anticipates a rate cut in September, but the policy dynamics remain complex due to labor market cooling and persistent inflation concerns[4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to provide guidance on future easing through the dot plot and economic forecasts, rather than committing to a clear rate path[5] - The dot plot is expected to shift downward with increased dispersion, but the median may not indicate the market's expectation of three rate cuts[5] Group 2: Economic Forecasts and Labor Market Insights - Economic growth forecasts for 2025 are likely to be slightly revised down due to weaker-than-expected labor market data and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls[5] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slowly, with most officials maintaining a judgment of two rate cuts within the year[5] - The core PCE inflation forecast may be slightly adjusted downwards compared to June's pessimistic outlook, reflecting moderate price transmission from tariffs[5] Group 3: Risks and Market Reactions - The market is currently pricing in three rate cuts within the year, which may lead to increased sensitivity to data fluctuations[9] - Political pressures and the potential for a Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality could significantly impact inflation and monetary policy decisions[8] - The labor market's deterioration rate and inflation trends will be critical indicators for the Federal Reserve's future actions[8]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surged significantly, reaching a high of 7.1182, marking the first time since November 6, 2024, that it has surpassed 7.12, driven by a combination of stable exchange rate policies, strong domestic equity market performance attracting foreign investment, and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][1][1] Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated over 340 points in a single day, indicating strong market momentum [1] - Analysts attribute the RMB's performance to a balanced approach in exchange rate policy and favorable conditions in the domestic equity market [1][1] - The Federal Reserve's dovish signals have heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with officials indicating a potential 25 basis point cut in September [1][1][1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on two key upcoming data releases: the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the non-farm payroll report [1][1] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist suggests that the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, depending on economic data performance [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is expected to be filled with uncertainties, with potential adjustments to interest rate policies hinted at by officials [1] - The current balance of risks has shifted, indicating a move from an "anti-inflation" stance to a "recession prevention" approach among Federal Reserve officials [1][2] - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the path of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for multiple cuts while others support a single adjustment or oppose any cuts [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's current federal funds rate is at a "moderately restrictive" level, suggesting room for rate cuts while maintaining policy flexibility [1] - Economic data, particularly the upcoming non-farm payroll figures, will significantly influence the decision-making process for potential rate cuts in September [1][2] - The challenge lies in balancing the dual objectives of price stability and maximum employment, with the possibility of a one-time adjustment strategy if employment data worsens or inflation rebounds [3]

戴利在采访中详细阐述了她对货币政策调整的看法。她表示，虽然支持9月份开始降息，但认为政策调 整应该是渐进的。 对于9月降息，美联储内部分歧愈演愈烈。 当地时间周三，旧金山联储主席玛丽·戴利在接受媒体采访时明确表示，反对在9月会议上实施50个基点 的大幅降息，认为此举可能释放不必要的紧急信号。与此同时，芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比敦促美联储在 通胀完全受控前不要"仓促"降息，显示美联储内部对降息节奏存在明显分歧。 戴利表示，50个基点的降息"听起来像是我们看到了紧急情况"，但她对劳动力市场并不感到担忧，也不 认为有必要进行追赶式降息。她支持逐步向更中性的政策立场调整，时间跨度为"未来一年左右"。 戴利、古尔斯比的鹰派表态与特朗普政府官员的激进降息呼声形成鲜明对比。财政部长贝森特此前建议 美联储在9月会议上降息50个基点，而美联储理事鲍曼上周六也支持今年降息三次并敦促9月启动降息， 理事沃勒此前更是表示7月就应该降息。 戴利支持渐进式降息路径 "政策对于经济走向而言可能过于严格，这要求我们进行重新校准，"戴利说道。她倾向于在未来一年左 右的时间内逐步向更中性的政策环境调整。 戴利在6月份预计今年降息两次，她表示这仍然是 ...