Economic Growth - The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.4% in the third quarter, marking the fastest growth in two years [1] - This growth is attributed to strong exports and reduced inventory drag, making it one of the strongest consecutive quarters since the pandemic recovery began in 2021 [1] - Consumer spending, a major growth engine, increased by 3.5% in the last quarter, reflecting the fastest growth in service spending in three years [1] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, favored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 2.9% in the third quarter [1] - Given the strong economic growth and stable job market, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting [1] Labor Market - Initial jobless claims remained low, with a slight increase of 1,000 to 200,000, which is below expectations [2] - The continuing claims for unemployment benefits fell to 1.85 million, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - The four-week moving average of jobless claims dropped to 201,500, the lowest in two years, indicating a stable labor market [2]

Core Insights - U.S. consumer spending stagnated in September, indicating that Americans began to control their expenditures in the face of persistent inflation before the government shutdown [1][3] - The report, originally scheduled for release on October 31, was delayed due to the government shutdown [3] Consumer Spending Data - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending in September showed almost no change, with the August increase revised down to 0.2% [1][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.2% from August, with a year-over-year increase of 2.8% [4] Economic Context - The slowdown in consumer spending suggests that the primary growth engine of the U.S. economy was decelerating before the longest government shutdown began on October 1 [2][5] - Recent data indicates strong performance in Black Friday sales, but consumer concerns about the job market are rising, with spending primarily driven by wealthier households [2][5] - A separate report showed that consumer confidence from the University of Michigan rose for the first time in five months in early December, indicating improved optimism regarding personal financial prospects as inflation expectations improve [2][5]