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布米普特拉北京投资基金管理有限公司:美国9月就业增长超预期 但市场隐忧浮现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 10:32
与此同时,美国失业率小幅上升至百分之四点四,较八月上升零点一个百分点。失业率的上升部分是由于近五十万人进入劳动力市场寻找工作。 从行业来看,美国医疗领域新增约四点三万个工作岗位,餐饮服务行业增加约三点七万人,社会援助服务也增长约一点四万人。与之形成对比的是,运输和 仓储业就业人数减少约两点五万人,公共部门就业继续呈现下降趋势。 在延迟近七周后,美国劳工部近日发布了九月就业报告。数据显示,当月非农就业人数增加十一点九万人,不仅显著高于经济学家预期的五万人,更创下自 四月以来的最大单月增幅。 这份姗姗来迟的报告同时大幅修正了此前两个月的就业数据。八月非农就业人数从最初公布的新增两点二万人被下调至减少四千人,七月数据也从七点九万 人下修至七点二万人。经过修正,七、八两月美国累计就业人数较此前报告减少三点三万人。 这份就业报告的发布因美国历史上最长的政府停摆而被推迟,原定于十月三日公布。政府停摆还导致劳工部无法发布十月份的完整就业报告,十月美国非农 数据将推迟至十二月十六日与十一月报告一并发布。 数据发布的延迟给美联储的政策决策带来了挑战。美联储将于十二月九日至十日召开今年的最后一次货币政策会议,届时将无法获得及时的 ...
历史新低!美国,突传重大利空!
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-22 15:17
Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Indicators - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped to 51 from 53.6 in October, marking a historical low for the current conditions index at 51.1, which fell by 7.5 points [1][3] - Consumers' assessment of their personal financial situation decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers mentioning high prices negatively impacting their finances, marking the fifth consecutive month of increase in this sentiment [3][4] - Expectations regarding the job market worsened, with 69% of consumers anticipating a rise in unemployment over the next year, up from 64% in October, more than double the 32% from November last year [3][4] Group 2: Market Performance of Consumer Sectors - The consumer sectors in the U.S. stock market have faced significant declines, with the essential consumer goods sector dropping three times more than the S&P 500 index since October, while the non-essential consumer goods sector fell by 5.2%, making them the worst-performing sectors [2][3] - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both non-essential and essential consumer goods sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [2][3] Group 3: Broader Economic Concerns - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, indicating that consumer activity is a critical variable despite market focus on companies like Nvidia [3] - The ongoing government shutdown has disrupted food assistance and affected many federal employees' pay, contributing to consumer frustration regarding high prices and shrinking incomes [4][5] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in September, the highest level since July 2020, with initial claims for unemployment insurance reaching a four-year high, indicating increasing difficulty for unemployed individuals to find work [4][5]
机构调查显示英国消费者信心显著下滑
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2025-11-20 13:29
机构调查显示英国消费者信心显著下滑 英国财政大臣里夫斯将于11月26日发表年度预算案,市场正关注预算中是否有提振消费信心、缓解生活 成本压力、稳定经济增长的相关举措,期待政策发力改善市场预期,为消费复苏与经济回暖提供支撑。 (完) 来源:中国新闻网 编辑:王永乐 广告等商务合作,请点击这里 中新社伦敦11月20日电 (欧阳开宇 刘施岑)英国零售商协会20日披露的调查数据显示,英国消费者信心 指数在11月出现显著下滑,创下今年4月以来最大月度跌幅。 英国零售商协会说,此次消费者信心下滑主要体现在经济预期与个人财务预期两个维度。调查显示,11 月英国消费者对未来三个月经济的净预期从10月的-35%降至-44%,对未来三个月个人财务状况的净预 期则从-11%降至-16%,两项指标均跌至4月以来最低水平。 今年4月,受美国对英关税加征、全球能源价格反弹等因素影响,消费者信心曾大幅回落。英国媒体分 析称,此次再度走弱,凸显宏观经济不确定性对民众预期的持续影响。 英国零售商协会指出,此前政府曾暗示可能上调所得税税率,该消息对市场情绪造成冲击,虽后续这一 想法已被放弃,但仍影响消费者消费意愿。 英国零售商协会首席执行官海伦 ...
特朗普称美国通胀已正常,消费者信心却暴跌
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-11-19 11:28
2025.11.19 本文字数:1834,阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经 孙卓 当地时间17日,参加麦当劳华盛顿影响力峰会的美国总统特朗普,回应了美国民众对通胀加剧等经济问 题的担忧。 本月初在美国多场地方选举中,民主党接连取得关键胜利,生活成本议题是民主党的主打议题之一。 特朗普辩称,虽然他从美国前总统拜登那里继承了一个烂摊子,但"美国已迎来了正常的通货膨胀"。他 称,减税政策以及制造业回流计划将扩大美国企业的收入并刺激经济增长,只不过"这些措施奏效需要 时间。" 白宫官员表示,特朗普本周参加麦当劳峰会的演讲只是围绕"可负担性"议题的一系列活动的首场,顾问 团队正在讨论让特朗普扩大国内行程,更直接地向选民介绍相关措施。 政治压力 特朗普在会上表示,目前的能源成本已经下降,这也带动了所有商品价格的全面下降。特朗普说:"汽 油价格大幅下降。能源价格下降后,无论是生产甜甜圈、炸鸡,还是其他任何产品,一切都离不开能 源。你需要运输,你需要卡车,你需要燃料。"不过,由于美国政府经历了史上最长时间的停摆,10月 的通胀和就业数据缺失。 一段时间以来,美国民众对生活成本再度升高的忧虑挥之不去。民主党在本月的多场地方 ...
从炸薯条谈到通胀,特朗普称美国通胀已正常,消费者信心却暴跌
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-19 07:43
民调显示,美国11月的消费者信心暴跌至自2022年6月以来的最低水平。 当地时间17日,参加麦当劳华盛顿影响力峰会的美国总统特朗普,回应了美国民众对通胀加剧等经济问 题的担忧。 本月初在美国多场地方选举中,民主党接连取得关键胜利,生活成本议题是民主党的主打议题之一。 特朗普辩称,虽然他从美国前总统拜登那里继承了一个烂摊子,但"美国已迎来了正常的通货膨胀"。他 称,减税政策以及制造业回流计划将扩大美国企业的收入并刺激经济增长,只不过"这些措施奏效需要 时间。" 在当天的演讲中,特朗普还提到美国的投资和贸易协议,并且批评民主党人过分强调目前"物价不可负 担"。 白宫官员表示,特朗普本周参加麦当劳峰会的演讲只是围绕"可负担性"议题的一系列活动的首场,顾问 团队正在讨论让特朗普扩大国内行程,更直接地向选民介绍相关措施。 然而,根据RealClearPolitics网站一份最新的民调,美国11月的消费者信心却暴跌,跌至自2022年6月以 来的最低水平。 特朗普在当天的演讲中表示,他正在"结束拜登政府造成的负担能力危机"。"尽管我们正在取得巨大的 进步,我们还有很多工作要做。"特朗普说,"如今,美国本土就业人数比我上任时 ...
德昌电机控股跌超11% 中期营业额同比下跌1% 纯利上升3%
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-13 01:58
消息面上,德昌电机控股公布截至2025年9月30日止六个月中期业绩,营业额为18.33亿美元,同比下跌 1%;股东应占溢利净额上升3%至1.33亿美元;或按完全摊薄基础后为每股14.21美仙。基本净溢利下跌 8%至1.23亿美元。董事会宣布派发中期股息每股17港仙。 公告指出,尽管全球经济在面对美国国际贸易政策急剧转变带来的冲击下展现韧性,但由于生活成本压 力加上劳动市场疲软,世界主要经济体的整体消费者信心维持审慎。在德昌电机的汽车和消费者领域及 工业硬件产品等主要终端市场,所受的影响好坏参半。多个新兴驱动应用领域呈现有利的增长动力,惟 因更多成熟期的产品增长缓慢,加上因需求及全球供应链配置持续不明朗,原始设备制造商客户延迟推 出新项目,导致整体增长受到抵销。 德昌电机控股(00179)跌超11%,截至发稿,跌11.59%,报29.6港元,成交额1.91亿港元。 ...
报告:美国经济出现令人警醒信号 整体复苏或面临挑战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 08:44
Core Insights - UBS expresses concerns about the current state of the U.S. economy, particularly the labor market, indicating significant underlying weakness that could pose serious risks to overall economic recovery [1][2] Labor Market Analysis - UBS's chief economist Jonathan Pinger highlights that the employment data reveals notable weakness, which may threaten the economic recovery [1] - The report notes a cautious approach from employers regarding hiring and layoffs, with a trend of "low hiring, low firing" observed throughout the year [1] - UBS warns that increasing business pressures could disrupt this balance, leading to potential job cuts and a stagnant hiring environment [1][2] Consumer Confidence - The report indicates that consumer confidence is being undermined, with the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropping to 50.3 in November, reflecting growing concerns about job prospects [1] - Rising unemployment risks are diminishing households' expectations for the future, while small business owners' confidence continues to decline due to inflation and labor market instability [1] Economic Outlook - UBS emphasizes that if hiring conditions do not improve, the U.S. economy may face significant downside risks, with a bleak labor market outlook suggesting severe challenges for overall economic recovery [2] - The report warns that a wave of layoffs combined with stagnant hiring could negatively impact consumer spending and household confidence [1][2]
英国零售销售增长放缓 消费者信心受预算和黑五促销影响
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-11 01:01
新华财经北京11月11日电英国零售联盟(BRC)表示,由于消费者在政府即将发布预算报告前以及期待 黑色星期五促销活动时减少消费,零售销售增速有所减弱。 周二数据显示,英国10月总体零售销售年率增长1.6%,低于12个月的平均水平,为自5月以来最慢增 速。同店零售销售年率降至1.5%。疲软的增速主要受到非食品类商品消费的拖累,尤其是玩具、电子 产品和服装销售几乎没有增长。 (文章来源:新华财经) 英国经济似乎处于一种等待状态,尤其是财政大臣里夫斯预计将于11月26日公布预算,里夫斯计划在此 声明中提出增税措施以努力重建捉襟见肘的公共财政。包括Tesco和Sainsbury在内的英国超市上个月向 里夫斯警告称,任何增税措施"不可避免地会影响家庭"。 ...
美国就业市场显露降温迹象,私人数据揭示增长动能减弱
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 08:24
Group 1 - Private sector added 42,000 jobs in October, showing a slight recovery but still significantly lower than earlier this year [3] - Industries such as trade, transportation, and utilities are actively hiring, while professional services and information sectors are experiencing job losses [3] - Cumulative layoffs in 2023 have exceeded 1.1 million, a 44% increase compared to the same period last year, with technology and retail sectors being the hardest hit [4] Group 2 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index dropped to 50.3 in November, the lowest level since 2022, influenced by rising prices and government shutdown concerns [4] - Current employment conditions are favorable for those employed but challenging for job seekers, indicating a "very uncomfortable economic situation" [5] - Market analysts suggest that the mixed data may lead the Federal Reserve to interpret the labor market's softening as a signal for potential changes in monetary policy [5]
Vatee外汇:黄金持稳4050美元,降息预期支撑涨势?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 03:47
Group 1 - Gold prices reached around $4050, continuing a strong oscillating trend supported by recent U.S. market data indicating slowing job growth and low consumer confidence [1] - The latest employment data showed a weak performance, with over 150,000 layoffs reported in October, the highest for this period in over 20 years, reflecting a slowdown in labor market growth [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased, with a nearly 66% probability of a 25 basis point cut, which lowers the holding cost of gold as a non-yielding asset [1] Group 2 - The University of Michigan reported a decline in the consumer confidence index to 50.3 in November, the lowest since June 2022, indicating increased economic uncertainty and rising demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - There are potential pressure factors in the market, as some U.S. government operations may resume, which could alleviate short-term economic risks and reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - The main contradiction in the gold market is the interplay between interest rate expectations and risk appetite, with recent weak employment data and declining consumer confidence providing support for gold prices [4] Group 3 - Technically, XAU/USD is trading around $4050, with short-term support at $4020 and resistance at $4080, indicating a strong momentum but potential for pullback as it approaches resistance [2] - Observers are closely monitoring the dollar's performance and U.S. monetary policy information to assess potential price changes and market volatility characteristics [4]