Group 1 - China's September manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.7%, slightly up from the previous value of 49.4%, while the non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.5%, up from 50.3% [1] - A slight increase in both PMIs may support a rise in commodity futures and stock index futures prices, but could mildly suppress government bond futures prices [1] Group 2 - The USDA is set to release the quarterly grain inventory report, which will impact futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans [2] Group 3 - The US ISM manufacturing PMI for September is anticipated to be 49.2%, an increase from the previous 48.7% [3] - A slight rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI may support increases in prices for non-ferrous metals, crude oil, and related commodity futures, while potentially suppressing gold and silver futures prices [3] Group 4 - The EIA will announce the weekly crude oil inventory change, with the previous value showing a decrease of 607,000 barrels [4] - A continued decrease in crude oil inventory could support rising prices for crude oil and related commodity futures [4] Group 5 - The US Labor Department will report initial jobless claims, with expectations set at 215,000, down from the previous 218,000 [5] - A slight decrease in jobless claims may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices, except for gold and silver [5] Group 6 - The US non-farm payroll report for September is expected to show an increase of 39,000 jobs, up from 22,000 previously, with an unemployment rate forecasted to remain at 4.3% [6] - If the non-farm payrolls exceed expectations while the unemployment rate and average hourly wage growth remain stable, it may support increases in industrial commodity futures prices but suppress gold and silver futures prices [6] Group 7 - OPEC+ will hold a meeting regarding oil production policies, with expectations of an increase in production by 137,000 barrels per day and a potential lifting of a second batch of production cuts totaling 1.65 million barrels per day [7] - The outcomes of this meeting are anticipated to impact crude oil and related commodity futures prices [7]

| Millio | > 國投期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ★☆★ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布周度初请失业金人数录得21.8万人为近两月以来新低,第二季度GDP大幅上修至增长3.8%创两 年新高。美联储多位官员讲话体观谨慎态度,对后续降息存在分歧。关注今晚POE通胀数据以及美国政府停 摆的解决进展。贵金属中期偏强趋势未改但短期波动加剧保持观望。 ★美国第二季度GDP被大幅上修至增长3.8%，创两年新高，前值为3.3%;美国至9月20日当周初请失业金人数 录得21.8万人，为2025年7月19日当周以来新低，前值由23.1万人修正为23.2万人。 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 美国至9月13日当周续请失业金人数192.6万人，预期193.5万人，前值由192万人修正为192.8万人。 ...

Initial jobless claims fell by 14,000 to 218,000 in the week ended Sept. 20, the Labor Department said Thursday. ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with a previous rate of 4.50% [2] - Most Federal Reserve officials anticipate at least three more rate cuts by the end of the year, with only one official advocating for a 50 basis point cut [2] - The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 4%, consistent with market expectations, while the Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive time [2] Group 2 - Upcoming key events include the release of manufacturing PMI for multiple countries on September 23, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20, and the final value of Q2 real GDP and core PCE price index on September 25 [3] - On September 26, the U.S. will release the year-on-year core PCE price index for August, along with the final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan for September [3] - Several Federal Reserve officials, including Bowman and Williams, are scheduled to speak on monetary policy and economic outlook on September 26 [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. In the short term, institutional behavior, expectations of incremental policies, and changes in the capital market are the main driving factors. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue in August economic data, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly, with yields expected to remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities brought by the steepening of the yield curve [97][98] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Performance of Treasury Futures Contracts**: The 30 - year TL2512 contract fell 0.41%, the 10 - year T2512 contract rose 0.12%, the 5 - year TF2512 contract rose 0.07%, and the 2 - year TS2512 contract fell 0.02%. The trading volumes of TS, TF, and T contracts increased, while that of the TL contract decreased. The open interests of all TS, TF, T, and TL contracts increased [13][17][23][31] - **Performance of Deliverable Bonds**: The prices of some deliverable bonds changed, such as the 30 - year 210005 IB falling 0.14 and the 10 - year 220017 IB rising 0.05 [13] 2. News Review and Analysis - **Domestic News**: In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, social consumer goods retail sales reached 39668 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, and fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%. The Sino - US economic and trade leaders held talks and reached a basic framework consensus on some issues [34] - **Overseas News**: US retail sales in August were 732.01 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The initial jobless claims were 231,000, a significant drop. The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25% [10][35][36] 3. Chart Analysis - **Spread Changes** - **Yield Spreads**: The spread between 10 - year and 5 - year bonds widened slightly, while the spread between 10 - year and 1 - year bonds narrowed slightly. The spreads between 2 - year and 5 - year, 5 - year and 10 - year contract main contracts widened slightly. The 10 - year and 30 - year contract inter - period spreads widened significantly, the 5 - year contract inter - period spread narrowed, and the 2 - year contract inter - period spread widened [44][48][52] - **Treasury Futures Main Position Changes**: The net short positions of the top 20 positions in the T contract increased significantly [64] - **Interest Rate Changes** - **Shibor and Treasury Yields**: Overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, and 1 - month Shibor rates all increased. The yields of treasury bonds due in 1 - 7 years changed between - 1 and 2 basis points, and the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year bonds rose by about 0.4 and 1 basis points to 1.80% and 2.10% respectively [68] - **Sino - US Treasury Yield Spreads**: The spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year Sino - US treasury bonds widened slightly [73] - **Central Bank Open - Market Operations**: The central bank conducted 1826.8 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 150 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits, with 1264.5 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and 120 billion yuan in treasury cash deposits maturing, resulting in a net injection of 592.3 billion yuan. The weighted average DR007 rate rebounded to around 1.50% [77] - **Bond Issuance and Maturity**: This week, bonds worth 1708.793 billion yuan were issued, with a total repayment of 1190.265 billion yuan, and a net financing of 518.528 billion yuan [81] - **Market Sentiment** - **USD/CNY Exchange Rate**: The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1128, with a cumulative depreciation of 109 basis points this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB weakened [86] - **US Treasury Yields and VIX Index**: The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds oscillated upward, and the VIX index increased [91] - **A - Share Risk Premium**: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds decreased, and the A - share risk premium increased slightly [94] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - **Domestic Fundamentals**: In August, industrial growth, social retail, and export growth slowed down, fixed - asset investment continued to shrink, and the unemployment rate rose seasonally. Social financing growth declined slightly, and credit growth was weak. The economic recovery has slowed down since July, and the manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and macro - policies need to boost domestic demand [97] - **Overseas Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased significantly, but overall employment growth slowed down. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's expectation of a rate cut in October increased [97] - **Bond Market Outlook and Strategy**: The bond market has been oscillating at the bottom, with weak repair momentum. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern may continue, and the bond market is unlikely to trend downward significantly. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side basis and focus on term spread trading opportunities [98]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The A-share market's major indices showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with most sector indices declining. Only the electronics, communication, and social services sectors closed in the green. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 1.15% to 3831.66 points, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.64%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 3.1 trillion yuan. The U.S. stock market's three major indices all hit new closing highs, with the Nasdaq rising 0.94% to 22470.725 points. [1] - The market adjustment will continue, and it is maintained that the Shanghai Composite Index will be in a volatile adjustment in September. However, there are still structural opportunities in the market. During this market adjustment, the fundamentals and capital enthusiasm of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more advantageous, showing greater resilience. The sentiment weakened yesterday, and the volatility of related options decreased significantly. Opportunities for bottom - up layout can be considered in the next few trading days. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Situation**: In the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's R & D investment increased continuously. In 2024, the total R & D investment exceeded 3.6 trillion yuan, a 48% increase from 2020, and the R & D investment intensity reached 2.68%, exceeding the average level of EU countries. The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week dropped to 231,000, the largest decline in nearly four years. [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, A - share indices rose and then fell. Most sector indices declined, with only a few sectors closing in the green. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to 3.1 trillion yuan. In the U.S., the three major stock indices all hit new closing highs. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures decreased on the delivery day of the current - month contract, and both trading volume and open interest increased. [1] 2. Strategy - The market adjustment will continue, and the Shanghai Composite Index will be in a volatile adjustment in September. There are structural opportunities, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 showing more resilience. Opportunities for bottom - up layout can be considered in the next few trading days. [2] 3. Charts 3.1 Macro - economic Charts - Include charts showing the relationship between the U.S. dollar index and A - share trends, U.S. Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and U.S. Treasury yields and A - share style trends. [5] 3.2 Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On September 18, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index was 3831.66 (down 1.15% from the previous day), the Shenzhen Component Index was 13075.66 (down 1.06%), the ChiNext Index was 3095.85 (down 1.64%), the CSI 300 Index was 4498.11 (down 1.16%), the SSE 50 Index was 2912.83 (up 0.17%), the CSI 500 Index was 7199.88 (down 0.83%), and the CSI 1000 Index was 7476.40 (down 1.04%). [11] - Also include charts of trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and margin trading balances. [11] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 220,019 (an increase of 57,520), and the open interest was 288,603 (an increase of 14,691). [15] - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures decreased. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract was - 10.91 (a decrease of 13.09). [36] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread data of stock index futures are provided, such as the IF's next - month minus current - month spread was - 11.20 (a change of + 0.20). [42]

美国上周初请失业金人数创下近四年来的最大降幅，扭转了前一周异常大的增幅，并与经济中较低的裁 员水平保持一致。 根据劳工部周四公布的数据，在截至9月13日的一周内，初请失业金人数减少了3.3万人，至23.1万人。 这与今年以来的水平基本一致，离疫情前的趋势也不远。续请失业金人数（代表领取救济金的总人数） 在此前一周降至192万人，但仍高于190万人这一关键阈值。 初请失业金人数的总体下降表明，在不确定的经济环境中，公司仍在留住员工。即便如此，从近几个月 就业增长步伐的大幅放缓，到劳动力供需两端的降温，劳动力市场仍存在疲软迹象。 在全年维持利率不变后，美联储因就业市场出现压力迹象，于周四恢复了降息。美联储主席鲍威尔表 示，他已不能再将其描述为"非常稳固"，决策者们也看到了失业率上升的更大风险。 "今天的报告对上周关于裁员突然激增的任何理论都提出了质疑，"High Frequency Economics的首席经 济学家卡Carl B. Weinberg在一份报告中说。"它也削弱了美联储内部和市场上要求更多、更大幅度降息 的呼声。" 有助于消除波动的四周移动平均初请失业金人数变化不大，为24万人。 此次下降扭转了前一 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate ceiling by 25 basis points to 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, with indications of at least three more rate cuts expected this year [1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending September 13 were reported at 231,000, below the expected 240,000, with the previous week's figure revised to 264,000 [1] - Binance founder CZ has warned crypto projects about North Korean hacking threats, advising them to carefully screen candidates and train employees to avoid downloading files [1] Group 2 - Vitalik Buterin addressed the controversy surrounding Ethereum staking exit times, stating that quick exits could undermine trust in offline nodes, and noted that the current exit queue design has room for improvement [2] - The Ethereum validator exit queue currently holds a total of 2,497,293 ETH, with an estimated wait time of 43 days and 9 hours, while the entry queue has 466,560 ETH with an estimated wait time of 8 days and 2 hours [2] Group 3 - Ramil Ventura Palafox, CEO of Praetorian Group International, has pleaded guilty to operating a $200 million Bitcoin Ponzi scheme, facing charges of telecommunications fraud and money laundering [3] - Palafox misled over 90,000 investors globally, raising more than $201 million, resulting in total investor losses of at least $62.69 million [3] - Sentencing for Palafox is scheduled for February 3, 2026, where he could face up to 40 years in prison [3]

You do get a snap back in jobless claims after the big rise last week, we fall back to 231,000. That's below the estimate. Last week was revised up by a thousand, so it was to 64.But remember, this was all in theory because of fraud in Texas. Texas officials say there were a whole lot of illegal filings the week before, and that looks like it is the case. The ongoing claims number is 1,920,000.That falls from 1,000,009 27. So the jobless claims numbers improved. Take a little bit of that edge off in terms o ...