Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US August core PCE year-on-year is expected to be 2.9%, indicating inflation remains on a stable trajectory but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Market attention is focused on the impact of service and goods inflation on the data, with service inflation being a key driver of sustained price increases due to strong consumer demand in recent years [1] - Goods inflation has shown signs of recovery, reflecting the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices, which will help in understanding the potential drivers of inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The interest rate market currently estimates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in November and a 75% probability in December [1] - There is an asymmetric risk facing the market; if inflation data exceeds expectations, particularly if the core PCE year-on-year rises above 3%, it may lead investors to question the Federal Reserve's ability to implement significant rate cuts as currently priced in by the market [1]