人民财讯8月13日电，中信证券研报认为，美国7月通胀大致符合预期，关税继续温和推升物价、速度较 上月稍放缓，服务通胀反弹，价格信号没有反映太多服务消费需求放缓的迹象。中信证券仍预计美国企 业能向居民部门完成大部分关税成本的转嫁，更慢的转嫁速度可能意味着关税对物价更温和而更久的提 振影响，不过租屋空置率的回升和劳动力需求的放缓意味着服务通胀前景较稳定。中信证券现在预计美 联储年内将连续降息三次，每次25bps。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that U.S. inflation in July was largely in line with expectations, with tariffs continuing to moderately push up prices, although at a slightly slower pace compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: Inflation and Tariffs - Tariffs are expected to have a more gradual and prolonged impact on prices, as the ability of companies to pass on tariff costs to consumers remains intact [1] - The rebound in service inflation does not show significant signs of a slowdown in service consumption demand [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The increase in rental vacancy rates and a slowdown in labor demand suggest a more stable outlook for service inflation [1] - The expectation is for the Federal Reserve to implement three rate cuts within the year, each by 25 basis points [1]

点击小程序查看报告原文 市场目前最关注的就是关税是否会对通胀造成影响，而5月CPI报告中几乎没有体现关税的向下传导。 从数据上看，核心商品5月环比从上月0.1%降至零增长。其中，新车环比下跌0.3%，二手车下跌0.5%， 特朗普政府针对进口汽车25%的关税目前仍未体现在整车零售端。家具与床具（-0.8%）、服装 （-0.4%）环比同样在下跌，即便针对于小包裹进口的关税已明显抬升。 不过，一些受关税影响较大的 品类价格仍出现显著上涨 。 比如家用电器（+4.3%）、玩具与游戏（+2.2%）、电脑（+1.1%）等，但 这些项目还不足以提升整体通胀。 5月的数据展示了这样一幅图景：由于消费者端需求存在不确定性，企业并未像疫情期间财政货币双扩 张之时那样借着供应链扰动的情况"趁火打劫"般大幅涨价，抬高利润空间。相反，由于企业"提前抢进 口"库存充足，许多零售商仍在一边等待关税的取消与减免，一边以较低价格销售关税实施前采购的商 品，暂时通过消耗库存和压缩利润空间"吃掉"部分通胀压力。 服务通胀的低迷也有助于缓解通胀压力。 美联储最关注的剔除房租后的核心服务（supercore）价格环 比涨幅回落至0.1%，其中，机票价 ...

Core Insights - The April CPI data released by the U.S. Labor Department shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a decline compared to February [1] - Year-on-year CPI growth is at 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021, and core CPI growth is at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values [1] - The overall inflation data is considered mild, but market expectations suggest inflation may rise due to U.S. trade policies [1] Inflation Components - Core goods prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with new car prices unchanged and used car prices down by 0.5% [2] - Furniture and bedding prices rose from 0.6% to 1.5%, while appliance, toy, and sports equipment prices saw increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [2] - Service inflation continues to decline, with housing inflation up by 0.3%, indicating persistent but stable housing inflation [2] Service Inflation Trends - Core service inflation excluding housing is at 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021, with healthcare and transportation services showing slight increases [3] - The labor market cooling and slowing wage growth are expected to contribute to a gradual decline in service inflation [3] - The stability of supply chains has reduced the risk of disruptions, allowing businesses to adjust and mitigate price increases [3] Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Companies are reducing travel expenses, and consumers are cutting back on leisure spending, leading to a decrease in prices for flights and hotels [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production, contributing to a continued decline in oil prices, which may offset inflationary pressures from tariffs [4] - The combined effects of reduced travel spending, falling oil prices, and slowing wage growth could counterbalance the inflation impact from tariffs [4]