Core Viewpoint - Stephen Miran, a Federal Reserve governor, has retracted his previous stance advocating for significant interest rate cuts this year, citing stronger-than-expected economic performance in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Miran noted that the labor market is performing slightly better than his previous expectations, and commodity inflation appears to be more persistent [1] - He now believes that the Federal Reserve should only lower rates by 1 percentage point from the current level of 3.5% to 3.75% this year, compared to his earlier prediction of rates dropping below 2.25% by year-end [2] Group 2: Policy Implications - Miran's revised position contrasts sharply with the median forecast of other Federal Reserve officials, who anticipate only a 25 basis point cut this year [2] - His comments indicate a widening gap between his views and the economic policy stance of the White House, where he previously served as the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers [2] Group 3: Personal and Political Context - Miran recently resigned from his White House position to fulfill a commitment to Senate Democrats, allowing him to continue serving on the Federal Reserve until a successor is confirmed [3] - There is speculation that President Trump may appoint Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve Board to replace Miran, potentially leading to another vacancy if current Chair Jerome Powell steps down after his term ends [3] Group 4: Voting Behavior - Miran has consistently voted in favor of lower interest rates during his participation in Federal Reserve policy meetings, although he did not disclose his voting intentions for the upcoming March meeting [4]

米兰表示，最新数据表明，就业状况比他此前预期的更为稳健，而商品通胀则显得更加顽固。因此，他 表示，与两个月前相比，他已不再认为美联储今年应按原计划那样大幅降息： 劳动力市场表现略好于我过去几个月的预期。商品通胀也出现了进一步走强的迹象。这两方 面因素结合起来，会让我收回我在12月份所采取的立场。 在美联储12月公布的季度"点阵图"中，米兰曾预计利率将在年底前降至2.25%以下；如今，他更倾向于 回到9月份时较为温和的立场，即到2026年底将利率降至2.75%以下。 坚定的降息派、特朗普亲信、美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）收回了他此前关于美联储今年 应大幅降息的主张。他在最新的采访中表示，最新数据显示，美国经济表现比他此前预期的更为强劲。 米兰表示，最新数据表明，就业状况比他此前预期的更为稳健，而商品通胀则显得更加顽固。因此，他 表示，与两个月前相比，他已不再认为美联储今年应按原计划那样大幅降息： 米兰的最新立场意味着，今年将从当前3.5%至3.75%的水平累计降息1个百分点。尽管如此，他仍是美 联储内部最偏鸽派的官员之一，这与多数美联储官员的中位预测形成鲜明对比——这些官员们预计今年 仅 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Futures - Gold futures in New York have surpassed $5020 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.43% [1] Group 2: Energy and Shipping Futures - Brent crude oil has exceeded $72 per barrel, with a daily increase of 2.35% [2] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia reached their highest level since June 2022 [3] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Market Impact - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has revised down his expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, citing stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, a better-than-anticipated labor market, and persistent commodity inflation. He now predicts a total rate cut of 1 percentage point from the current range of 3.5% to 3.75%, compared to previous expectations of rates falling below 2.25% by year-end [4]

来源：滚动播报 美联储戴利：一旦关税取消，预计商品通胀将会回落。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Milan has revised down his expectations for the extent of interest rate cuts this year, citing stronger-than-expected economic data in the U.S. [1] Economic Conditions - Recent data indicates that the employment situation is better than previously anticipated by Milan [1] - There are signs that commodity inflation is proving to be more persistent [1] Interest Rate Projections - Milan no longer believes that the Federal Reserve should implement significant rate cuts as he had predicted two months ago [1] - Previously, Milan expected interest rates to fall below 2.25% by the end of this year; he now leans towards a more moderate stance, anticipating rates to be below 2.75% by the end of 2026 [1] - This suggests a total rate cut of one percentage point from the current level of 3.5% to 3.75% [1] Divergence in Views - Milan remains one of the more dovish members of the Federal Reserve, contrasting with the majority of officials who expect only a 25 basis point cut this year [1] - His latest stance indicates a growing divergence from the economic policy positions he previously held while working in the White House [1]

美联储米兰称商品通胀表现得更为顽固。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices reached a historic high, increasing by $115 to over $4,300 per ounce, closing at $4,326.12 per ounce, marking a 2.8% rise [1] - The World Gold Council's research head indicated that the gold market is not yet saturated, and long-term macroeconomic support factors remain intact [2] Group 2: Oil Market - International crude oil prices hit a five-month low due to oversupply and concerns about the global economic outlook, with WTI crude falling by 2.39% to $56.87 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.23% to $60.84 per barrel [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials expressed varying views on interest rate cuts, with Waller advocating for gradual cuts and suggesting a neutral rate lower by 100 to 125 basis points [1] - Kashkari noted a slowdown in the job market and anticipated a decline in service inflation, while Barkin mentioned that consumer spending remains robust but cautious [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US August core PCE year-on-year is expected to be 2.9%, indicating inflation remains on a stable trajectory but still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [1] - Market attention is focused on the impact of service and goods inflation on the data, with service inflation being a key driver of sustained price increases due to strong consumer demand in recent years [1] - Goods inflation has shown signs of recovery, reflecting the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices, which will help in understanding the potential drivers of inflationary pressures [1] Group 2 - The interest rate market currently estimates a 90% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates again in November and a 75% probability in December [1] - There is an asymmetric risk facing the market; if inflation data exceeds expectations, particularly if the core PCE year-on-year rises above 3%, it may lead investors to question the Federal Reserve's ability to implement significant rate cuts as currently priced in by the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold futures prices have reached a historic high of over $3760 per ounce, driven by ongoing commodity inflation trends in the U.S. and a weakening labor market [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. commodity inflation continues to rise, while service sector inflation shows signs of easing [1] - The labor market is experiencing a downward trend, which may influence future monetary policy [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - The Federal Reserve's focus on the labor market, as indicated during the August global central bank meeting, suggests that moderate commodity inflation will not alter the pace of interest rate cuts [1] - The combination of rising tariffs contributing to inflation and declining nominal interest rates is expected to benefit precious metals in the near future [1] Group 3: Demand Factors - The recent surge in international gold prices coincides with the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, which is likely to sustain demand for gold jewelry [1]

Core Insights - Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. (CBRL) reported mixed results for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, with earnings missing estimates while revenues exceeded expectations, leading to a 9.9% decline in shares post-results due to macroeconomic concerns and lower traffic trends [1][3][8] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q4 fiscal 2025 were 74 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 78 cents, and representing a 24.5% decline year over year [3][8] - Quarterly revenues reached $868 million, surpassing the consensus mark of $857 million, but decreased by 2.9% year over year [3][8] - Comparable-store restaurant sales increased by 5.4% year over year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of positive growth, while comparable-store retail sales decreased by 0.8% [4][8] Cost and Expenses - The cost of goods sold (excluding depreciation and rent) was $265 million, down 3% year over year, but as a percentage of total revenues, it increased by 10 basis points to 30.5% [5] - General and administrative expenses totaled $50.2 million, down 2% year over year [5] Income and Balance Sheet - Adjusted net income for the fourth quarter was $16.7 million, compared to $22 million in the prior year [6] - As of August 1, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $39.6 million, up from $12 million a year earlier [7] Future Guidance - For fiscal 2026, CBRL expects revenues between $3.35 billion and $3.45 billion, anticipating a customer traffic decline of 4% to 7% year over year [10] - Adjusted EBITDA is projected to be between $150 million and $190 million, with commodity inflation expected in the range of 2.5% to 3.5% and hourly wage inflation between 3% and 4% [10] Dividend Information - CBRL declared a cash dividend of 25 cents per share, payable on November 12, 2025, to shareholders on record as of October 17 [9]