格局修复盈利弹性
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旗滨集团(601636):浮法、光伏玻璃产销双增,节能玻璃盈利水平稳健
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES· 2025-09-01 11:37
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the company, indicating a forecasted relative performance increase of 5% to 15% over the next 6 to 12 months compared to the benchmark index [4][21]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1,057 million yuan in 2025, with a significant rebound of 176% year-on-year after a projected decline in 2024 [4][6]. - The company has a strong cost advantage in glass production and is expected to benefit from a recovery in market conditions, which will enhance its profit elasticity [6]. Financial Summary - The total share capital is 2,683.57 million shares, with a market price of 6.35 yuan, resulting in a market capitalization of 17,040.70 million yuan [1]. - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 15,683 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 18%. However, a decline of 4% is expected in 2025 [4]. - The company's net profit for 2023 is estimated at 1,751 million yuan, with a significant drop of 78% in 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. - The company’s cash flow per share is expected to increase from 0.34 yuan in 2024 to 1.60 yuan in 2026 [4]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 44.5 in 2024 to 16.1 in 2025, indicating improved valuation [4]. Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 7,393 million yuan, a decrease of 6.55% year-on-year, while the net profit increased by 9.77% to 891 million yuan [6]. - The company produced 5,531 million weight boxes of float glass and sold 5,221 million weight boxes, showing significant production and sales growth [6]. - The photovoltaic glass segment saw a revenue increase of 11.09% year-on-year, despite a decline in profit margins due to price pressures [6]. - The company maintains a market share of approximately 11% in float glass and 10% in photovoltaic glass, positioning it among the industry leaders [6].