来源:金融界 8月22日主力资金净流入13149.23万元，占流通市值1.44%，近五日主力资金净流出40556.32万元，占流 通市值4.46%。 风险提示：市场波动风险，行业竞争加剧风险。 国际复材最新股价为6.48元，较前一交易日上涨0.25元，涨幅4.01%。盘中最高触及6.75元，最低6.17 元，成交额15.61亿元，换手率17.06%。 国际复材主营业务为玻璃纤维及复合材料的研发、生产和销售，产品广泛应用于电子、建筑、交通等领 域。公司所属板块包括玻璃玻纤、PCB、华为概念等。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During a bull market, market corrections are often completed in a short period. For small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks, it may be a good buying opportunity. Chasing the previous strong sectors during this period has a high probability of success, and even chasing at the market peak can often yield positive returns [1][4]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends [1][5]. - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related [1][6]. Summary by Directory 1. How to Respond When a Small Platform Appears in a Bull Market 1.1 Chasing the Previous Strong Sectors During a Small - Scale Bull - Market Correction Has the Highest Probability of Success - During a bull market, small - scale pullbacks of 2 - 4 weeks may be a good buying opportunity. When considering whether to chase the previous high - performing sectors or switch to low - lying sectors for catch - up, historical data shows that in the "first wave of rise - platform pullback - second wave of rise" scenarios, the top 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise are likely to have the largest pullbacks during the adjustment but also tend to have higher increases in the second wave of rise. The bottom 20% of sub - industries in the previous wave of rise usually do not end up at the bottom in the second wave of rise [10]. - When buying at the market's highest point before adjustment (fully "chasing up"), the TOP20% group and the DOWN20% group have similar returns, but the TOP20% group has a higher probability of success and always maintains positive returns. When buying at the lowest point of the market adjustment, the TOP20% group is likely to have better returns [4][13]. 1.2 When Not to Chase Up - The statement that "chasing the previous strong sectors during a small - scale bull - market correction has the highest probability of success" is the result of strong sectors with excess returns continuing to lead the rise and sectors with weakening marginal excess returns rising in line with the market. Excluding sectors with weakening marginal excess returns may be a good choice when a "small - scale bull - market correction" occurs [16]. - The weakening of the excess return of sub - sectors relative to broad - based indices may be a signal for market topping. When a sector has negative excess returns during a correction, it is difficult to achieve positive excess returns after the correction ends, possibly because the sector has completed the pricing of its own logic and there is no incremental logic to change this situation. Conversely, if a sector can maintain strong excess returns during a correction, it is likely to continue to do so in the future [5][19]. 1.3 Which Industries Currently Have Weakening Marginal Excess Returns - Currently, most secondary industries with continuous excess returns have not shown signs of weakening marginal excess returns. Sectors such as the consumer electronics sector have had continuous excess returns relative to the broader market for 10 weeks. As of August 20, 2025, sectors with continuous excess returns of five weeks or more include general equipment, special equipment, electronic chemicals, rubber, semiconductors, and photovoltaic equipment [20]. - Sectors that have shown weakening marginal excess returns include the gaming sector in AI applications, the aviation equipment sector in the military industry, and the wind power and glass - fiber sectors in the "anti - involution" category [20]. 1.4 How to Find Sectors That May Earn Odds When Excess Returns Weaken - There are a few sectors that, even if their excess returns weaken during a small bull - market correction, can still offer good odds after adjustment. Examples include special steel from March to July 2009, rail transit equipment from February to April 2015, rural commercial banks from December 2016 to April 2017, energy metals, small metals, general steel, and coal mining from May to September 2017, and chemical fibers and agricultural product processing from November 2020 to January 2021 [23]. - These sectors are mostly cyclical and resource - related. Before the correction, the rise is due to market beta and the difference between weak reality and strong expectations. During the correction, the negative excess return is due to the friction when moving from long - term speculation to the reality - realization stage. After the correction, the excess return comes from the reality catching up with the strong expectations. Resource sectors price their own logic more "slowly" than growth sectors. When the marginal excess returns of growth stocks weaken, it is difficult for them to restart without new incremental logic. However, for resource sectors, the realization of logic (i.e., the realization of supply - demand structure expectations) is still an incremental logic [6][23].

策略报告 | 投资策略 策略专题 证券研究报告 牛市若出现小平台，如何应对？ 核心结论：牛市期间，大盘回调往往在很短的时间内完成，对于 2-4 周的小 级别回撤，可能是一次流畅买入的机会，此时追涨前期强势板块胜率较高， 即使在市场最高点追涨，后续也往往能获得正收益。另一方面，细分板块的 超额相对宽基走弱，或许是一种"做排除法"的逃顶信号。当板块在回调时 存在负的超额，回调结束后也很难获得正的超额。当前，连续超额的各二级 行业，大多数仍未出现超额边际走弱的信号。目前已经出现超额边际走弱的 板块有 AI 应用的游戏，军工板块的航空装备，"反内卷"的风电、玻璃玻纤 等。存在少数板块，即使在牛市小回调时超额相对走弱，调整后仍能具备较 好的赔率。这样的板块多为周期资源，资源品板块相对成长板块对自身逻辑 的定价更"慢"，成长股超额边际走弱时，若没有新的增量逻辑拔估值，便 较难二次启动。而资源品板块，逻辑的兑现（即供需结构的预期兑现）仍属 于增量的逻辑。 牛市期间，大盘回调可能在短时间内完成，对于 2-4 周的小级别回撤，可能 是一次流畅买入的机会，此时需要思考该追涨前期涨幅靠前的板块还是切换 低位板块做补涨。复盘历史上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 1.456 billion yuan, up 18.96% year-on-year, and net profit of 174 million yuan, up 42.30% year-on-year [8] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 692 million yuan, an increase of 7.75% year-on-year, and a net profit of 92 million yuan, up 28.42% year-on-year [8] - The company benefits from a favorable demand structure, particularly in the wind power and home appliance sectors, which has led to a good performance in production and sales [8] - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 408 million yuan, 506 million yuan, and 583 million yuan respectively, representing growth rates of 49%, 24%, and 15% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was 2.607 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 3.215 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 20.80% [7] - The net profit for 2023 was 296 million yuan, with an expected increase to 408 million yuan in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 48.50% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.72 yuan in 2023 to 1.00 yuan in 2025 [7] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to be 16.69 in 2025, indicating a reasonable valuation compared to historical performance [7] Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a strong performance compared to the CSI 300 index, with a notable increase of 54% over the past 12 months [4]

Market Overview - Major A-share indices experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02% to 3727 points, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.12%, and ChiNext Index down 0.17%. The North Star 50 Index rose 1.27%, reaching a new historical high [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 2.64 trillion yuan, a decrease of 168.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 2900 stocks rising across the market [1] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in the robotics and reducer sectors, with stocks like Xiaxia Precision, Lingyi Manufacturing, and Top Group hitting the daily limit [1] - The generator concept also saw gains, with stocks such as Fullchai Power and Taihao Technology reaching the daily limit [1] - The CPO concept remained active, with Cambridge Technology hitting the daily limit [1] - The liquor sector saw a rise, with Jiugui Liquor hitting the daily limit [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included weight loss drugs, automotive integrated die-casting, and decoration [1] Declining Sectors - Insurance stocks declined, with China Life leading the losses [1] - The PEEK materials sector weakened, with Xinhan New Materials dropping over 7% [1] - The glass and fiberglass sectors showed poor performance, with Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging falling over 10% [1] - Other sectors with significant declines included electronic chemicals, shipbuilding, and securities [1] Top Gainers and Fund Inflows - The beverage sector led the gainers with a rise of 3.23%, followed by communication equipment and automotive parts [2] - The retail sector also showed positive performance with a 1.77% increase [2] - Net capital inflows were observed in the beverage and forestry sectors, indicating investor interest [2]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a significant surge, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a nearly ten-year high, indicating a strong upward trend in the market [1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3728.03 points, up 0.85% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11835.57 points, up 1.73% - The ChiNext Index closed at 2606.20 points, up 0.84% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 519.6 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a new high for the year [1] Sector Performance - Most industry sectors showed positive growth, with notable gains in shipbuilding, consumer electronics, glass fiber, small metals, power equipment, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, motors, electronic components, and electronic chemicals - Conversely, the coal, precious metals, and fertilizer sectors experienced declines [1] Market Outlook - Industrial analysts at Industrial Securities suggest that the current market requires a "slow bull" phase, emphasizing the need for a healthy and sustainable market environment - With the market continuing to recover, institutional advantages are becoming more apparent, contributing to a positive feedback loop with the current "slow bull" and "healthy bull" trends [1] - According to Jifeng Investment Advisory, the overall market trend remains upward, and with policy support, the A-share market is expected to align with economic growth, potentially marking an upward turning point [1]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a nearly 10-year high, while the North Stock 50 hit a historical peak, and both the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index surpassed their October 8, 2022 highs [1][2] - The total trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 28,091 billion yuan, an increase of 5,363 billion yuan from the previous day, marking a new annual high [1] Sector Performance - Financial sectors, including brokerage and fintech stocks, experienced significant gains, with companies like Zhihui and Tonghuashun reaching historical highs [2] - AI hardware stocks, particularly liquid cooling servers, saw a strong surge, with over 20 stocks hitting the daily limit [2] - Rare earth permanent magnet stocks were active, with companies like Northern Rare Earth also hitting the daily limit [2] Investment Strategies - Galaxy Securities noted that market liquidity has improved, with margin trading balances continuing to grow, indicating increased investor participation and a positive market sentiment [3] - Caixin Securities highlighted that the market is currently in a "volume and price rising" trend, suggesting potential structural opportunities for investors while cautioning about increased market differentiation due to the upcoming mid-year report disclosures [3]

Group 1: Company Performance - Tongling Nonferrous Metals reported a net profit of 1.441 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 33.94% [1] - Sanxia New Materials recorded a net loss of 26.993 million yuan, shifting from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] - Yiming Foods achieved a net profit of 32.2172 million yuan, an increase of 21.73% year-on-year [1] - Xinyi Chang reported a net profit of 2.6157 million yuan, down 96.05% year-on-year [3] - Neusoft Carrier's net profit was 13.5246 million yuan, a decline of 76.36% year-on-year [4] - Sifang Optoelectronics posted a net profit of 84.1238 million yuan, up 103.41% year-on-year [5] - Ousheng Electric achieved a net profit of 115 million yuan, an increase of 18.52% year-on-year [7] - Xiaoming Co. turned a profit with a net profit of 185 million yuan, compared to a loss of 29.1663 million yuan in the same period last year [9] - Jingbeifang reported a net profit of 119 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.91% year-on-year [19] - Shengnong Development's net profit surged to 910 million yuan, a remarkable increase of 791.93% year-on-year [19] - Huayou Cobalt's net profit reached 2.711 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 62.26% [20] - Xiaogoods City reported a net profit of 1.691 billion yuan, an increase of 16.78% year-on-year [21] Group 2: Industry Overview - Tongling Nonferrous Metals operates in the nonferrous metals industry, focusing on copper [1] - Sanxia New Materials is part of the building materials industry, specifically in glass manufacturing [1] - Yiming Foods is in the food and beverage sector, specializing in dairy products [1][2] - Xinyi Chang operates in the machinery equipment sector, focusing on intelligent manufacturing equipment [3] - Neusoft Carrier is involved in the communication equipment industry [4] - Sifang Optoelectronics is in the machinery equipment sector, focusing on gas sensors and analyzers [5][6] - Ousheng Electric operates in the home appliance sector, specializing in air power and cleaning equipment [7][8] - Xiaoming Co. is in the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, focusing on poultry farming [9] - Jingbeifang operates in the computer software development industry [19] - Shengnong Development is also in the agriculture and animal husbandry sector, focusing on meat processing [19] - Huayou Cobalt is in the nonferrous metals industry, specializing in lithium and cobalt materials [20] - Xiaogoods City operates in the retail sector, focusing on market development and online trading services [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index futures continued to fluctuate upwards, but market differentiation intensified, showing the characteristic of "strong index, weak stocks". The core contradiction lies in the game between policy expectations and economic reality. The market presents a game feature of "policy support" and "fundamental pressure", and it is necessary to focus on the matching degree between policy implementation efficiency and marginal improvement of economic data. Maintain optimism in the medium - long term, but be vigilant against short - term fluctuations caused by repeated expectations of peripheral liquidity [31] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - On August 15, the three major A - share indexes continued their strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.60%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.61%. Most industry sectors rose, with only the banking sector falling. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion for three consecutive days, with a turnover of more than 2.2 trillion on that day, slightly lower than the previous trading day [1] - Last week, treasury bond futures rose collectively. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had respective price changes of - 1.48%, - 0.29%, - 0.15%, and - 0.02% [2] - Last week, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened collectively. The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures had weekly increases of 3.09%, 2.19%, 4.88%, and 5.21% respectively [7] Fundamental Analysis - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and by 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [8] - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 535.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Residential investment was 412.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. Various indicators such as construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined [8] - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.878 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. From January to July, it was 28.4238 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The central bank will focus on the supply - side to promote consumption [9] - Last week, the central bank conducted 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and had 1126.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, with a net withdrawal of 414.9 billion yuan. It also carried out 500 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations. This week, there will be 711.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities and 22 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturities [10] Valuation Analysis - As of August 15, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 Index were 13.42 times, 74.12%, and 1.42 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 Index were 11.55 times, 86.08%, and 1.28 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 Index were 30.95 times, 74.12%, and 2.09 times respectively; those of the CSI 1000 Index were 42.88 times, 69.8%, and 2.38 times respectively [14] - The stock - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the treasury bond yield, with two calculation formulas provided [26] China - Buffett Indicator - On August 14, 2025, the ratio of total market capitalization to GDP was 81.59%. The percentile of the current "total market capitalization/GDP" in historical data was 78.56%, and in the last 10 - year data was 78.99% [29] Comprehensive Analysis - The consumer recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, but there are structural highlights in consumption. Industrial production is stable, and high - tech manufacturing continues to lead. Policy - wise, the loose tone of monetary policy remains unchanged, but the rebound of US PPI may restrict the inflow of foreign capital. Domestic fiscal policy is still being implemented, and the impact of special treasury bonds on infrastructure may appear in the third quarter. The market volatility remains low, and investors expect limited short - term breakthroughs [31] Operation Recommendations - Unilateral: Control risks, buy on dips, and avoid chasing highs [32] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [33] - Options: Consider the covered call strategy to increase returns [34]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a "healthy bull" phase, characterized by steady upward movement and a gradual increase in investor confidence, supported by government policies and capital market strategies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Market Characteristics - The current market is defined as a "slow bull," with indices rising steadily and volatility decreasing, indicating a healthy market environment [2]. - Despite new highs in indices, most industries remain at moderate levels of crowding, suggesting no overall overheating in the market, allowing for a "multi-point blooming" phenomenon where various sectors and themes take turns in attracting investment [5]. - The market is witnessing a rotation of opportunities across different sectors, driven by the release of new economic trends and the transition from old to new growth drivers [5][25]. Group 2: Institutional Participation - Institutions are becoming the main source of incremental capital in the current market, with a significant increase in new institutional accounts since June, reaching historical highs [11][14]. - The performance of actively managed funds has improved, with average returns for stock and mixed funds rising by 20.62% and 20.48% respectively since the beginning of the year [7]. - The emergence of "doubling funds" indicates strong institutional investment capabilities, with historical patterns suggesting that such funds often lead to better performance in the following year [7]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The brokerage sector is highlighted as a direct vehicle for the "healthy bull," with expectations of increased trading activity and potential for excess returns as market conditions improve [15]. - The AI sector has emerged as a strong market leader, showing no signs of overheating despite its rapid ascent, indicating a sustainable growth trajectory [17][25]. - The military industry is expected to benefit from upcoming events and strategic planning, with historical precedents suggesting significant price movements in response to military parades and policy meetings [31][34]. Group 4: Long-term Trends - The "anti-involution" theme is identified as a long-term focus for the market, with policies aimed at breaking negative cycles and promoting healthy competition across various industries [41][43]. - Key industries such as steel, glass fiber, and new energy chains are positioned to benefit from anti-involution policies, with strong participation intentions and potential for positive changes in profitability [43].