Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Palm Oil: Boosted by Macro Factors, Beware of Sentiment Decline; Soybean Oil: Rising with the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties [2] - Analyst: Li Junyu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, with global supply projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8%. Meanwhile, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1%. [4][5][8] Summary by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.60% change and 8,924 yuan/ton at night with a 0.16% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.83% change and 8,054 yuan/ton at night with a -0.47% change; other futures also had corresponding price and change details [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 708,709 lots with an increase of 5026, and an open interest of 509,869 lots with a decrease of 47,186; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 321,474 lots with a decrease of 19,705, and an open interest of 535,817 lots with a decrease of 22,367; other futures also had corresponding trading volume and open - interest changes [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,300 yuan/ton with no change; other spot prices also had corresponding details [3] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 60 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 208 yuan/ton; other basis details were also provided [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 653 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 818 yuan/ton; other spread details were also provided [3] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Production Outlook**: Global palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for nearly one - third of global vegetable oil production and over 80% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil supply is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8% [4][5] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.03% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from July 1 - 20 was 740,394 tons, a 7.31% decrease compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec. United Plantations reported a 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year increase in palm oil and palm kernel production in Q2, respectively, and a 5.6% increase in palm oil average price and a 46.5% increase in palm kernel sales price [5][6] - **India's Palm Oil Situation**: India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm seeds, with significant demand growth. In 2024, India imported 303 million tons of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports [6] - **Indonesia's B50 Policy**: Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - oil - based biodiesel blending ratio to 50% next year faces challenges due to uncertainties in raw material supply, production capacity, infrastructure gaps, and potential environmental and legal issues [7] - **Soybean Production Outlook**: By 2034, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean producer, is projected to see a 0.8% annual growth in soybean production, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the US. Argentina and Paraguay's soybean production is expected to reach 56 million tons and 13 million tons respectively by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1% [8] - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [8] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [9]