5、据外媒报道，印尼油棕农民协会（APKASINDO）以一种矛盾的结局结束了2025年。全球和国内原 油棕榈油（CPO）价格大幅上涨，生物柴油政策扩大，下游业务加速推进。然而，在农民层面，尤其是 独立小农，福利并未完全跟随增长趋势。 6、船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚1月1-15日棕榈油出口量为727440吨，较上月同期出口的 613172吨增加18.64%。 注：其他关于大豆与豆粕资讯可看公众号第一篇《豆粕晚评》 来源：市场资讯 （来源：南京玛合雅） 一、【市场关注】 1、据外媒报道，印尼副能源部长YuliotTanjung周三表示，印尼已取消今年将强制性生物柴油混合比例 提高至50%的计划，维持目前40%棕榈油基燃料和60%柴油的混合比例。此外，印尼棕榈油基金管理机 构负责人表示，印尼将从3月1日起将毛棕榈油（CPO）出口征收税（levy）从目前的10%上调至 12.5%。精炼产品的出口征收税也将上调2.5个百分点。 2、据路透社报道，马来西亚棕榈油局网站周四发布的一份通告显示，马来西亚已下调2月份原棕榈油参 考价格，此举将出口关税降至9%。作为全球第二大棕榈油出口国，马来西亚将2月份的参考价格定为 ...

油脂日报 | 2026-01-15 印尼取消今年推进B50，盘面承压震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 中性 风险 政策变化 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约8748.00元/吨，环比变化-30元，幅度-0.34%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+14.00元，幅度+0.18%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约8949.00元/吨，环比变化-68.00元，幅度-0.75%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8730.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.34%，现货基差P05+-18.00，环比变化 +0.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8400.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元/吨，幅度+0.00%，现货基差Y05+400.00，环 比变化-14.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9750.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.20%，现货基差OI05+801.00， 环比变化+48.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，印尼副能源部长YuliotTanjung周三表示，印尼已取消今年将强制性生物柴油混合 比例 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8000 | 8748 | 8949 | 2751 | 2355 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 14 | -30 | -68 | -10 | -245 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.18% | -0.34% | -3.15% | -0.36% | -9.42% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -364 | 62 | -746 | -754 | 1079 | 325 | | 市 场 | 前值 | -390 | -26 | -627 | -732 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Palm Oil: Boosted by Macro Factors, Beware of Sentiment Decline; Soybean Oil: Rising with the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties [2] - Analyst: Li Junyu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, with global supply projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8%. Meanwhile, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1%. [4][5][8] Summary by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.60% change and 8,924 yuan/ton at night with a 0.16% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.83% change and 8,054 yuan/ton at night with a -0.47% change; other futures also had corresponding price and change details [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 708,709 lots with an increase of 5026, and an open interest of 509,869 lots with a decrease of 47,186; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 321,474 lots with a decrease of 19,705, and an open interest of 535,817 lots with a decrease of 22,367; other futures also had corresponding trading volume and open - interest changes [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,300 yuan/ton with no change; other spot prices also had corresponding details [3] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 60 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 208 yuan/ton; other basis details were also provided [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 653 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 818 yuan/ton; other spread details were also provided [3] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Production Outlook**: Global palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for nearly one - third of global vegetable oil production and over 80% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil supply is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8% [4][5] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.03% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from July 1 - 20 was 740,394 tons, a 7.31% decrease compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec. United Plantations reported a 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year increase in palm oil and palm kernel production in Q2, respectively, and a 5.6% increase in palm oil average price and a 46.5% increase in palm kernel sales price [5][6] - **India's Palm Oil Situation**: India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm seeds, with significant demand growth. In 2024, India imported 303 million tons of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports [6] - **Indonesia's B50 Policy**: Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - oil - based biodiesel blending ratio to 50% next year faces challenges due to uncertainties in raw material supply, production capacity, infrastructure gaps, and potential environmental and legal issues [7] - **Soybean Production Outlook**: By 2034, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean producer, is projected to see a 0.8% annual growth in soybean production, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the US. Argentina and Paraguay's soybean production is expected to reach 56 million tons and 13 million tons respectively by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1% [8] - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [8] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [9]