智通财经APP获悉，根据中原按揭研究部及香港土地注册处的数据，2026年1月录得36宗安老按揭登 记，按月增加6宗，升幅为20%；对比2025年首月(13宗)按年增1.8倍。中原按揭董事总经理王美凤预期 2026年楼价处于升轨，料推动今年安老按揭登记量回升。 王美凤指出，安老按揭以申请时期的物业估值计算可获年金，意味楼价若处高水平通常可获之年金较 高；根据历年统计数字，过往录得最高安老按揭登记量的年度是2017年，共达751宗，其次是2018年共 录621宗，当年楼价正处于上升时期，楼价逐步升至较高水平。2025年全年共录370宗安老按揭登记，对 比2024全年(426宗)按年减少13%。 安老按揭巿场占有率方面，自安老按揭计划推出以来，中银香港的参与度一直最高，2026年1月份36宗 安老按揭登记有35宗均由中银香港(02388)承造，市占率高达97%。排名第二是上海商业银行，录得1宗 登记，市场占有率为2.8%。 根据香港按证保险公司的数据，2026年1月共接获62安老按揭申请，较2025年12月的82宗，下跌了 24%。对比2025年同期，2025年1月登记量为79宗，按年跌21.5%。香港按揭证券公司 ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has raised its forecast for Hong Kong's property price increase in 2026 from 3% to 8%, following an unexpected rise of 4.7% in 2025, and anticipates further acceleration in property prices by 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The supply of new land is at its lowest level in 14 years, falling below sales volume [1] - The available supply within a year has decreased by 10,000 units [1] - From 2026, new property sales are expected to turn into net growth for the first time since 2019, with an anticipated 21,000 units sold [1] - The completion volume is expected to decline over the next 2-3 years, with an estimated 20,000 units in 2026 [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The number of non-local student visa approvals in Hong Kong is projected to increase by 10,000 per year, reaching 90,000 [1] - Talent inflow is expected to reach 160,000, compared to 180,000 in 2023/2024 [1] - These factors are expected to boost the rental market and future demand in Hong Kong [1] Group 3: Price and Yield Projections - Cumulative property price growth in Hong Kong from 2023 to 2025 is expected to reach 20%, with a 6% increase in 2025 alone [1] - Gross rental yield is projected to reach 3.5%, with properties under 70 square meters achieving breakeven [1] - The Hang Seng Index typically leads property prices by approximately three months due to the wealth effect from capital markets [1]