股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年3月31日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 中銀香港（控股）有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年4月1日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 不適用 | | | | 備註： | | | | 本公司可發行的股份數目上限為20,000,000,000股普通股股份及其股本並無股份面值。 | | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.2.1 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動及足夠公眾持股量的確認 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02388 | | 說明 | | | | | | | 多櫃檯證券代號 | 82388 | RMB 說明 | | | | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast model for Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) based on the performance in the second half of last year, raising its earnings per share predictions for 2026 to 2028 by 8%, 3%, and 5% respectively, primarily due to a decrease in impairment expenses and an increase in net interest income, with the target price adjusted from HKD 47.6 to HKD 49.7, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2]. Summary by Category - **Earnings Forecast** - Citigroup raised the earnings per share forecast for Bank of China Hong Kong for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 8%, 3%, and 5% respectively [1][2]. - **Key Drivers** - The adjustments in earnings forecasts are mainly attributed to a decline in impairment expenses and an increase in net interest income [1][2]. - **Target Price Adjustment** - The target price for Bank of China Hong Kong has been increased from HKD 47.6 to HKD 49.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup has updated its forecast model for Bank of China Hong Kong based on the performance in the second half of last year, raising its earnings per share predictions for 2026 to 2028 by 8%, 3%, and 5% respectively, primarily due to a decrease in impairment expenses and an increase in net interest income [1] Summary by Category - Earnings Forecast - Citigroup raised the earnings per share forecast for Bank of China Hong Kong for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 8%, 3%, and 5% respectively [1] - Impairment and Income - The adjustments in earnings forecasts are mainly attributed to a decline in impairment expenses and an increase in net interest income [1] - Target Price and Rating - The target price for Bank of China Hong Kong has been increased from HKD 47.6 to HKD 49.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Group 1 - Citi updated its forecast model for Bank of China Hong Kong (02388) in response to last year's second-half performance [1] - The bank raised its earnings per share forecasts for Bank of China Hong Kong for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 8%, 3%, and 5% respectively, primarily due to a decrease in impairment expenses and an increase in net interest income [1] - The target price for Bank of China Hong Kong was increased from HKD 47.6 to HKD 49.7, while maintaining a "Buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 annual performance, showing revenue growth of 8.1% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 4.9%, with Q4 2025 results aligning with expectations [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, revenue increased by 13.8% year-on-year and 15.6% quarter-on-quarter, while pre-tax profit rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 5.0% year-on-year, meeting expectations [1] - The net interest income (NII) for Q4 2025 grew by 7.3% year-on-year, contributing to an annual adjusted NII increase of 1.4%, outperforming consensus expectations [1] - The average HIBOR for 2025 decreased by over 160 basis points compared to the previous year, yet the company's adjusted net interest margin (NIM) only declined by 6 basis points to 1.58%, supported by structural optimization [1] Growth Drivers - The company experienced a 5% year-on-year increase in average interest-earning assets and an 8% rise in deposits, both outpacing the 4% growth in average interest-bearing liabilities [1] - The company focused on comprehensive customer management, enhancing cash management and payroll services, resulting in a 7 percentage point increase in CASA deposits by the end of 2025 [1] - Total loans increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with a moderate growth of 2% in Hong Kong loans and a robust 10% increase in Southeast Asian loans [1] Non-Interest Income - The adjusted non-interest income for 2025 surged by 40% year-on-year, with fee income rising by 14%, driven by significant growth in wealth management-related services [2] - Other adjusted non-interest income skyrocketed by 143%, attributed to accurate trading rhythm judgments on the proprietary side [2] - The company actively explored the needs of top corporate clients, diversifying income sources through foreign exchange, precious metals, and interest rate products [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company introduced profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027, estimating revenues of HKD 77.3 billion and HKD 78.4 billion, and net profits of HKD 40 billion and HKD 40.5 billion respectively [2] - The current trading price corresponds to 1.2x and 1.1x the projected P/B for 2026 and 2027, leading to a target price increase of 53% to HKD 45.1, reflecting an upside potential of 11.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a year-on-year increase in net profit, operating income, and PPOP for 2025, with growth rates of 4.9%, 8.1%, and 9.4% respectively, although these rates are lower than the first half of 2025 [1] Financial Performance - The net interest income for 2025 is projected to increase by 1.1% year-on-year, recovering from a decline of 3.5% in the first half of 2025 [2] - The adjusted net interest margin for Q4 2025 is expected to be 1.71%, up by 17 basis points from Q3, maintaining a competitive position in the industry [2] - Total assets, loans, and deposits are forecasted to grow by 7.0%, 2.3%, and 8.1% year-on-year respectively by the end of 2025, indicating stable expansion in the asset-liability scale [1] Income Structure - Non-interest income is anticipated to grow by 27.4% year-on-year, although the growth rate has decreased compared to the previous quarters [2] - The proportion of non-interest income is expected to reach 14.6%, reflecting an ongoing optimization of the income structure [2] - Other non-interest income is projected to increase by 42.2% year-on-year, benefiting from rising bond investment values and increased trading revenue due to market volatility [2] Asset Quality and Cost Control - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of 2025 is expected to be 1.14%, with a provision coverage ratio of 96%, indicating a solid asset quality [3] - The credit cost for 2025 is projected to be 0.49%, an increase of 0.19 percentage points year-on-year, while the cost-to-income ratio is expected to be 23.6%, down by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is expected to reach 24.01% by the end of 2025, reflecting improved capital levels and risk resilience [3] Valuation and Target Price - The company is projected to have an EPS of 4.13, 4.61, and 5.19 HKD for 2026-2028, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 1.06, and 0.99 [3] - A target PB of 1.47 is set for 2026, with a target price of 52.79 HKD, reflecting a valuation premium due to stabilized net interest margins and strengthened Southeast Asian operations [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue and profit growth, with a projected operating income of HKD 77 billion in 2025, representing an 8.1% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders of HKD 40.1 billion, reflecting a 4.9% year-on-year growth [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The weighted average ROE for 2025 is projected at 11.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Net interest margin is expected to decline to 1.40% in 2025, down 6 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to pressure on asset yields from declining market interest rates [2] - Net interest income is forecasted to grow by 1.1% year-on-year to HKD 52.9 billion in 2025 [2] Group 2: Asset Growth - Total assets are projected to grow by 7.0% year-on-year to HKD 4.49 trillion by the end of 2025 [1] - Deposits are expected to increase by 8.1% year-on-year to HKD 2.93 trillion, while total loans are projected to rise by 2.3% year-on-year to HKD 1.72 trillion [1] - The common equity tier 1 capital ratio is expected to improve by 3.99 percentage points to 24.01% by the end of 2025, mainly due to the implementation of Basel III leading to a reduction in risk-weighted assets [1] Group 3: Non-Interest Income - Net fee income is anticipated to grow by 13.9% year-on-year to HKD 11.3 billion in 2025, driven by favorable investment market conditions and increased demand for wealth management services [2] - Other non-interest income is expected to rise by 42.2% year-on-year to HKD 12.8 billion, attributed to increased revenue from global market trading activities [2] Group 4: Asset Quality - The projected non-performing loan generation rate for 2025 is 0.40%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The credit cost ratio is expected to rise to 0.49%, up 0.19 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The impairment loan ratio is projected to be 1.14% by the end of 2025, an increase of 0.09 percentage points from the beginning of the year, while the coverage ratio is expected to rise by 11 percentage points to 96% [2] Group 5: Future Profit Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast, projecting net profits of HKD 42.1 billion and HKD 44.4 billion for 2026 and 2027 respectively, with a 5.0% year-on-year growth expected for 2028 [3] - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be HKD 3.98, HKD 4.20, and HKD 4.44 for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.2, 9.7, and 9.1 [3]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China Hong Kong reported a net revenue of HKD 77 billion for 2025, reflecting an 8.1% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 40.1 billion, up 4.9% year-on-year, with a return on equity (ROE) of 11.51%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The bank's net interest income grew by 1.1% year-on-year, with a recovery in net interest margin due to increased credit lending in the second half of the year [1] - Non-interest income increased by 13.9% year-on-year, although the growth rate decreased by 12 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025, primarily due to a decline in loan-related commissions [1] - Other non-interest income saw a significant drop in growth, attributed to lower foreign exchange trading income and losses in interest rate instruments [1] Asset and Liability Management - As of Q4 2025, total assets reached HKD 4.5 trillion, a 7% year-on-year increase, with total loans (including discounts) amounting to HKD 1.7 trillion, up 2.4% year-on-year [2] - The mortgage business continued to support stable credit growth, with a net increase of HKD 23.4 billion in mortgage loans in Hong Kong, accounting for 59% of total credit growth [2] - Customer deposits reached HKD 2.9 trillion, a 7.9% year-on-year increase, with CASA deposits rising to 53.4% of total deposits [2] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio was 1.14% as of Q4 2025, an increase of 12 basis points from Q2 2025, primarily due to pressure on commercial property sales in Hong Kong [2] - The bank's provision coverage ratio improved to 96%, with a loan-to-provision ratio of 1.09%, reflecting increases of 10 percentage points and 21 basis points, respectively, from Q2 2025 [2] Investment Recommendation - Bank of China Hong Kong possesses advantages in group platform, brand, and cross-border business, demonstrating stable performance and growth potential in the Hong Kong market [2] - Projected profit growth rates for 2026-2028 are 3.79%, 4.50%, and 5.88%, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Bank of China (Hong Kong) reported better-than-expected performance for 2025, with significant quarter-on-quarter improvement in net interest margin and continued increase in loan market share, benefiting from strong cross-border wealth management demand, which grew over 20% year-on-year [1][2][14] Financial Performance - In 2025, Bank of China (Hong Kong) achieved operating income of HKD 77.019 billion, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 40.121 billion, up 4.9% year-on-year [1][2] - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for 2025 was 1.14%, an increase of 12 basis points from mid-year, while the provision coverage ratio rose by 10 percentage points to 95.9% [1][10] Revenue and Income Growth - The bank's net interest income showed a positive trend due to a significant rebound in net interest margin in the fourth quarter, with adjusted net interest income growing by 1.4% year-on-year [2][5] - Non-interest income increased by 27.4% year-on-year, driven by strong performance in wealth management and capital markets, with net fee income rising by 13.9% [2][8] Credit Quality and Provisions - Credit costs increased due to exposure to certain domestic real estate companies, leading to a significant rise in provisions [3][10] - The bank's loan impairment losses increased by 66% year-on-year, reflecting a cautious approach to provisioning amid risks in the real estate sector [3][10] Future Outlook - For 2026, revenue growth is expected to slow slightly due to high base effects from non-interest income, but profits are anticipated to maintain stable single-digit growth [4][14] - The bank's mortgage loan market share remains strong, and loan growth is expected to stabilize as the local economy recovers [6][9] Shareholder Returns - The dividend payout ratio for 2025 was 56%, an increase of 1 percentage point from 2024, with plans for further increases in shareholder returns through share buybacks and special dividends [12][13] - The bank's capital adequacy ratio remains robust, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [13][14] Wealth Management and Cross-Border Services - The bank significantly benefited from the rising demand for cross-border wealth management, with wealth management income growing by 40% year-on-year [8][14] - The number of high-end cross-border clients increased by 21%, indicating strong growth potential in this segment [8][14] Southeast Asia Business Growth - The Southeast Asia business showed promising growth, with loans and deposits increasing by 9.6% and 20.2% year-on-year, respectively [9] - This segment is expected to contribute increasingly to the bank's overall revenue as it supports Chinese enterprises expanding overseas [9]

Core Viewpoint - CICC reports that Bank of China Hong Kong announced its 2025 annual results, with revenue increasing by 8.1% year-on-year and net profit attributable to shareholders rising by 4.9% [1][2] Financial Performance - The company forecasts operating revenue for the next two years to be HKD 77.3 billion and HKD 78.4 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be HKD 40 billion and HKD 40.5 billion respectively [1][2] Target Price and Rating - CICC raised the target price for the company by 53% to HKD 45.1 and maintains an "outperform" rating based on changes in market risk appetite and profit expectations [1][2] Future Projections - The company is expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth in net fee income for 2026, with credit costs remaining stable at approximately 50 basis points [1][2] Shareholder Returns - The board has approved a framework for shareholder returns from 2026 to 2028, which includes increasing the dividend payout ratio within the established range of 40% to 60%, share buybacks, and special dividends [1][2] - Given the current high valuation level, CICC assesses that the probability of adopting dividend-related measures is higher, with special shareholder returns likely to be implemented in the first half of this year [1][2]