Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Market Industry Overview - The conference focused on the real estate market in China, particularly in major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, discussing trends in new and second-hand housing markets [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments New Housing Market - Recent data indicates a stabilization and slight recovery in new housing prices in key cities, with a notable increase in transaction volumes [1]. - In December, the weekly transaction volume in 40 key cities showed a significant upward trend, with a 16% increase in January compared to the previous month [2]. - The overall market performance for new homes in January is expected to be lower due to seasonal factors, but the year-end effect from December is still evident [2]. - The new housing market is currently at one of the lowest points historically, but the start of 2026 shows signs of stability compared to previous years [3]. - The visitor index for new homes has shown a slight rebound, indicating ongoing demand, particularly in first-tier cities [3][4]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market is experiencing a contrasting trend, with a notable decline in transaction volumes in January compared to December, approximately 60% of the previous month's volume [7][8]. - Despite the decline, the second-hand market remains stable, particularly in first and second-tier cities, with transaction volumes showing resilience [9]. - The second-hand housing market is characterized by a higher stability compared to new homes, with transaction volumes aligning closely with historical averages [9][10]. - The introduction of a new pricing index for second-hand homes reflects sellers' confidence in future price increases, with a notable rise in listing prices in major cities [10][11]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The overall market sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with indicators suggesting a potential warming trend in the real estate market [6][12]. - The manager's index for both new and second-hand homes indicates a positive shift, suggesting that market conditions may improve in the coming months [6][12]. - The presence of private enterprises actively acquiring land signals a shift in market expectations, moving away from extreme pessimism [13][14]. - The supply of new homes is currently low, with developers adopting a cautious approach to launching new projects, reflecting a lack of confidence in market demand [15][16]. Regional Insights - In Shanghai, the new housing market remains relatively inactive, with a significant drop in land transactions and cautious pricing strategies from developers [15][16]. - The second-hand market in Shanghai has seen a consistent transaction volume above 20,000 units per month since November, driven by demand for affordable housing [17][18]. - In Beijing, the new housing market has also shown a decline, but the second-hand market remains stable with transaction volumes around 12,000 to 17,000 units [27][28]. Policy Implications - The discussion highlighted the potential for policy changes to support the real estate market, including easing restrictions on purchases and financing [30][35]. - The government's approach to acquiring second-hand homes for rental purposes may set a precedent for future policies aimed at stabilizing the market [35]. Additional Important Content - The conference emphasized the importance of product quality in meeting buyer demand, suggesting that properties that align well with customer needs will see quicker sales [4]. - The rental yield in major cities remains low, but certain properties are showing higher returns, making them attractive investment options [19]. - The overall sentiment indicates that while there may be short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook for the real estate market is gradually improving, with expectations of a market recovery in the near future [34].

Core Viewpoint - The recent media focus on stabilizing the real estate market indicates a shift from a "rescue" mentality to a "stabilization" approach, suggesting that while the market has potential, it is not necessarily on the verge of a rebound [4][12]. Market Sentiment - There is a prevailing pessimism in the real estate market, with recent articles from state media aimed at calming public anxiety rather than promoting speculative buying [1][4]. - The psychological state of homebuyers is conflicted, with many fearing they will miss out on future price increases while also worrying about buying at a high point [7][10]. Investment Trends - In January 2026, the total land acquisition by the top 100 real estate companies was 57.99 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 52.1%, indicating caution among developers [5]. - The current market environment shows that only state-owned enterprises are actively acquiring land, while private companies remain hesitant [5][11]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing a significant divide, with first-tier cities showing signs of recovery while third and fourth-tier cities face substantial declines in new home sales, with a year-on-year drop of 46.6% [11]. - The recovery in core urban areas does not equate to a nationwide rebound, as many properties in non-core areas struggle to sell [11][12]. Future Outlook - The long-term potential of the real estate market lies in its transformation and the release of demand for improved housing, rather than short-term price surges [13]. - Key indicators for assessing the market's future include improvements in residents' income expectations, resolution of real estate companies' debt issues, and a reduction in inventory pressure, which currently stands at a 22.3-month supply in major cities [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a rebound in prices and transaction volume in 2025, driven by several favorable factors, with a notable increase in residential transactions, particularly in 35 major estates [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the past year (from December 30, 2024, to December 28, 2025), the 35 major estates recorded a total of 3,358 transactions, representing an approximate 7.4% increase compared to 3,128 transactions in the previous year [1] - The transaction volume remained stable even during the Christmas holiday period, with 71 transactions recorded in the week from December 22 to December 28, slightly down from 73 the previous week, but still above the average of about 65 transactions per week this year, showing a year-on-year increase of approximately 97% compared to only 36 transactions during the same period last year [1] Group 2: Regional Performance - In the New Territories, 17 estates recorded 24 transactions last week, marking an approximate 9.1% week-on-week increase, with specific estates like New Port City and Jiahu Mountain Villa each increasing by 2 transactions [2] - The Kowloon region saw a week-on-week decrease of about 6.7%, with 28 transactions recorded, despite some estates like Liyuan City and Youyi Residence increasing their transactions [2] - The Hong Kong Island region also experienced a decline, with 19 transactions recorded, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of about 9.5%, despite increases in some estates [2]