哈喽，大家好，今天小睿就带大家拆解：资本市场眼里的 2026 楼市，不是猜房价涨跌，而是找 "底部 站稳" 的核心证据链！ 2026年房地产市场走向备受关注，普通购房者关心房价涨跌，而资本市场的预判逻辑更显全面深刻。 作为国民经济的支柱产业，房地产业产业链条长、关联度高，直接影响开发商现金流、银行资产质量、 地方土地财政等多个关键领域，其波动对金融市场和宏观经济具有连锁反应。 2025年末中央经济工作会议明确政策目标从"止跌回稳"转向"着力稳定房地产市场"，这一信号成为资本 市场预判的核心锚点。 资本市场预判楼市的第一步，始终是解读政策导向。 2025年末中央经济工作会议提出"控增量、去库存、优供给"三大核心方向，将公积金改革、"好房子"建 设、城市更新列为重要抓手，这一表述与此前"持续用力推动止跌回稳"形成关键差异。 金融监管总局与住房城乡建设部联合推动商品住房项目贷款"应进尽进"纳入白名单，截至2025年111月 31日，白名单项目贷款审批通过金额已超3万亿元。 从"托底"到"稳结构"筑牢市场下限 泉州中骏雍璟府、成都某停工项目等案例证明，融资支持有效推动了保交楼进程，这让资本市场明确了 政策"托底"的力 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market is experiencing a significant increase in second-hand housing supply, with over 75,000 effective listings as of July 7, marking a rise of more than 3,000 units in two weeks, primarily driven by the Longgang, Baoan, and Futian districts contributing over 60% of the new supply [1] - Despite 71.8% of monitored areas seeing average prices decline, there are positive signals emerging, with the proportion of declining properties narrowing to 51.9% and the percentage of rising properties increasing to 36.2% [2] - Structural opportunities are becoming apparent, with resilient core area assets and significant price differentiation in peripheral regions, indicating a potential new phase of value discovery in the market [4] Market Dynamics - The market is characterized by three main features: enhanced resilience of core area assets, increased differentiation in peripheral regions, and a rising trend in the proportion of larger unit sales (over 120㎡) [4] - The policy environment continues to influence market expectations, with adjustments in second-hand housing reference prices and an increase in affordable housing construction, which is gradually diverting market demand [5] - The financial landscape shows a shift in funding preferences, with a notable increase in long-term loans and a high auction failure rate for luxury properties, indicating liquidity risks in high-value assets [5] Price Trends - The price increase leaderboard for July shows significant gains in various districts, with the highest increase of 19% in the Shuanglong Garden of Baoan district, reflecting a "low-price rebound" logic [3] - The market is expected to maintain a dual structure of stability in core areas and adjustments in peripheral regions as the traditional peak season approaches [5] - The overall market dynamics suggest that buyers should focus on specific district characteristics, such as industrial support and transportation planning, rather than solely on price [5]