Z Highlights 巨大的TAM扩张 上个月，我们解释了为何某些公司会成为"模型破坏者"（modelbusters）——或者说公司的增长速度和持续时间比任何人都要快很多。 当创始人构建了两样东西时，模型破坏者就会出现：一是突破性产品，释放出远超任何人预测的市场规模；二是抓住这一风口的商业模式。尽管模型破坏 者可能偶然出现，但最大、最优秀的那些往往在平台转换期蓬勃发展，此时新的技术基础让创始人能够重新定义产品和商业模式。 这正是AI目前所处的位置，但这一机会的规模可能远超我们迄今为止所见的一切。尽管我们仍处于早期阶段，但AI已经在以十分之一的成本提供十倍的产 品体验，并且我们开始看到新的商业模式出现以捕获这一价值。如果您使用SaaS或移动时代的可比数据来预测AI的规模，比如在ChatGPT出现时，您的模 型早已严重低估了AI的增长。 AI已在以十分之一的成本提供十倍的产品体验，同时新商业模式开始涌现以捕获这一价值。 AI公司有能力进攻6万亿美元的白领服务市场，规模是美国企业软件支出的20倍。 过去三年，智能成本每年下降超10倍，而模型能力约每7个月翻一番。 图片来源： a16z 在我们看来，很难高估AI会 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the emergence of "modelbusters" in the AI sector, highlighting their ability to create breakthrough products and capture significant market opportunities, particularly in the white-collar services market valued at $6 trillion, which is 20 times larger than U.S. enterprise software spending [3][4][5]. Market Opportunity - AI is currently providing products at one-tenth the cost while delivering ten times the product experience, indicating a substantial market expansion potential [4][5]. - The cumulative investment in AI computing capabilities is projected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030, driven by unprecedented capital expenditure [6][12]. Infrastructure Investment - The AI investment has surpassed $1 trillion in the past five years, outpacing historical benchmarks like the Apollo program and U.S. shale development [6][12]. - Major companies such as Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, and Meta are making significant investments in AI infrastructure, enhancing the ecosystem's resilience [12]. Cost and Capability Improvements - Over the past three years, intelligent costs have decreased by more than tenfold annually, while model capabilities have doubled approximately every seven months [12][14]. - A Stanford study indicates that intelligent costs have dropped by 99.7% within two years, further emphasizing the rapid improvement in AI capabilities [12]. Early Product Success - AI is capturing new opportunities at a much faster rate than previous technology cycles, with early products achieving growth metrics that took SaaS a decade to realize [15][18]. - Companies like Cursor have demonstrated rapid revenue growth, indicating a shift in how AI startups are capturing market share and customer budgets [18]. Emerging Business Models - The article suggests that AI may adopt similar monetization strategies as seen in the gaming industry, where companies can capture value through voluntary spending rather than upfront costs [19][20]. - Early evidence of outcome-based pricing models in customer support indicates a shift towards capturing the value created by AI products, allowing startups to compete effectively against established firms [20].