点,同比+1.56个百分点;半钢胎样本企业产能利用率为69.36%,环比-3.63个 百分点,同比-10.40个百分点。在RU仓单注销后,目前盘面仓单数量处于较低 水平,关注短期资金交易情绪。商品市场方面,目前临近年底,且商品处于主 力移仓换月阶段,整体行情仍缺乏驱动,短期预计橡胶仍将震荡表现。交易策 | 略:单边暂时观望,关注多NR空RU套利。 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠,但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性做任 | 何保证。本报告不构成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者持殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判 | 断本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况,据此投资,责任自负。本报告仅向国贸期货客户推送,未经 | 鬼 | 责 | | | | | 国贸期货授权许可,任何引用、转载以及向第三方传播的行为均构成对国贸期货的侵权,我可将视情况追究法律 | 明 | 声 | 责任。期市有风险,入市需谨慎。 | | | | | | ITC国贸期货 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market has rebounded and risen. In the short - term, with the positive performance of the commodity market, rubber is likely to maintain a relatively strong oscillation. The trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: RU主力 increased by 195 to 15045, NR主力 rose by 195 to 12130, BR主力 went up by 70 to 10305, Tocom RSS3 (yen/kg) decreased by 0.7 to 310.1, and Sicom TF (cents/kg) remained unchanged at 168.0 [3]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: RU2605 - RU2601 decreased by 20 to 75, RU2609 - RU2605 increased by 10 to 65, NR主力 - 次主力 increased by 15 to 15, and BR主力 - 次主力 decreased by 170 to - 80 [3]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - NR was 2915, RU - BR increased by 125 to 4740, NR - BR increased by 33, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) was 100, and NR - Sicom TF ($) increased by 28 to 23 [3]. Raw Material Prices - In Thailand, the price of smoked sheet rubber was 58.30 (decreased by 0.7), the price of glue remained at 56.30. In Hainan, the price of glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk latex remained unchanged at 14200 and 13100 respectively. In Yunnan, the price of glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700, and the price of rubber blocks for whole - milk latex decreased by 200 to 13600 [3]. Factory Costs and Profits - The concentrated latex production profit in Thailand increased by 15 to 500. The factory cost in Hainan remained unchanged at - 429. The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased by 21, and the gross profit of Thai 20 - grade rubber increased by 21 to - 571 [3]. Spot Market - **Domestic Spot**: The price of old whole - milk latex decreased by 100 to 14350, the price of Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, the price of Thai mixed rubber decreased by 20 to 14380, etc. [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price of cis - butadiene BR9000 decreased by 100 to 10200, the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 decreased by 200 to 10600, and the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1712 decreased by 100 to 9700 [3]. - **Overseas Spot**: The price of Thai mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1775, the price of Malaysian mixed rubber CIF decreased by 5 to 1765, etc. [3]. Spreads in Spot and Futures - **RU Spreads**: RU - Thai mixed rubber decreased by 5 to 470, RU - old whole - milk latex increased by 75 to 500, RU - Vietnamese 3L increased by 25 to - 100 [3]. - **NR Spreads**: NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863, NR - Indian standard delivery profit increased by 46 to - 364 [3]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between domestic standard - 2 and Thai mixed rubber increased by 20 to - 680, the spread between old whole - milk latex and Vietnamese 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3]. Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.1593, the US dollar/Chinese yuan decreased by 0.004 to 7.0865, the US dollar/Japanese yen remained unchanged at 154.1220, and the US dollar/Thai baht remained unchanged at 32.4775 [3]. Supply, Inventory and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg. The prices of glue in Hainan and Yunnan for different rubber types had certain changes [3]. - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 44.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.54 million tons or 3.57%. The bonded area inventory decreased by 0.58% to 6.83 million tons, and the general trade inventory increased by 4.36% to 37.94 million tons [3]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.51 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.03 percentage points [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is in a weak and volatile state. The overall downward space may be limited as the short - term commodity market is weak. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long single - side positions [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Domestic Futures**: RU主力 decreased by 25 to 14850, NR主力 decreased by 25 to 11935, and BR主力 increased by 30 to 10235 [3] - **Foreign Futures**: Tocom RSS3 increased by 0.7 to 310.8 yen/kg, Sicom TF remained unchanged at 167.8 cents/kg [3] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as RU2605 - RU2601 increased by 10 to 95, RU2609 - RU2605 decreased by 15 to 55, etc [3] 3.2 Raw Material Prices - **Thailand**: The price of smoke - sheet rubber decreased by 0.70 to 58.30 baht/kg, and the price of glue remained stable at 56.30 baht/kg [3] - **Hainan and Yunnan**: The price of Yunnan glue for concentrated latex decreased by 200 to 13700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk decreased by 200 to 13600 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Factory Costs and Profits - **Delivery Profits**: Hainan's whole - milk latex delivery profit decreased by 27 to - 3067, while Yunnan's increased by 73 to - 547, and Thailand's increased by 15 to 500 [3] - **Production Profits**: Hainan's concentrated latex production profit remained unchanged, and Thailand's smoke - sheet rubber profit increased by 20 to 2045, etc [3] 3.4 Domestic Spot - **Light - colored Rubber**: The price of Vietnam 3L decreased by 50 to 14950, and the price of Thai mixed decreased by 20 to 14380 [3] - **Dark - colored Rubber**: The price of Thai standard increased by 3 to 12904, and the price of domestic standard II remained unchanged at 13700 [3] - **Latex and Synthetic Rubber**: The prices of Shanghai's Huangchunfa bulk latex and Hainan bulk latex decreased by 50, and the prices of synthetic rubbers such as BR9000, SBR1502, and SBR1712 also decreased [3] 3.5 Overseas Spot - The prices of overseas spot rubbers such as Thai mixed CIF, Malaysian mixed CIF, and Thai standard CIF all decreased [3] 3.6 Price Spreads - **Futures - Spot Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as RU - Thai mixed decreased by 5 to 470, NR - Thai standard delivery profit decreased by 26 to - 863 [3] - **Spot Spreads**: The spreads between different rubber varieties also changed, such as the spread between old whole - milk and Vietnam 3L decreased by 50 to - 600 [3] 3.7 Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index remained unchanged at 100.2092, the US dollar/Chinese yuan increased by 0.002 to 7.0901, and other exchange rates remained stable [3] - **Interest Rates**: SHIBOR - overnight remained unchanged at 1.315, and SHIBOR - seven - day increased by 0.008 to 1.423 [3] 3.8 Supply and Demand - **Supply**: The price of raw material glue in Thailand remained stable, and the supply in Yunnan decreased slightly [3][4] - **Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons (1.6%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and that of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4% [4] - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of full - steel tire and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rubber market shows a volatile performance. Supply - side: In Thailand, the raw material glue price is 54 Thai baht per kilogram, and the cup - lump price is 48.3 Thai baht per kilogram; in Yunnan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 14,000 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,400 yuan per ton; in Hainan, the price of glue for producing whole - milk rubber is 13,300 yuan per ton, and for concentrated latex is 14,000 yuan per ton. Mid - stream inventory: As of August 3, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory is 1.289 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,800 tons (a decline of 0.4%); the total social inventory of dark - colored rubber is 804,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13%; the total social inventory of light - colored rubber is 485,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Downstream demand: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. Currently, the commodity market sentiment is changeable, and the rubber market is disturbed by external and relevant news in the short term, lacking a clear logic. It may continue to maintain a volatile performance in the short term. The operation suggestion is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - In the domestic market, the RU main contract is at 15,525 (up 30 from the previous value), the NR main contract is at 12,350 (up 30), and the BR main contract is at 11,535 (up 30). In the overseas market, Tocom RSS3 is at 317.1 yen per kilogram (down 2.8), and Sicom TF is at 168.4 cents per kilogram (unchanged) [3] Futures Spreads - In the inter - period spreads, RU2601 - RU2509 is at 975 (up 15), RU2605 - RU2601 is at 120 (down 10), NR main - secondary main is at - 50 (up 15), and BR main - secondary main is at 25 (up 20). In the inter - variety spreads, RU - NR is at 3,175 (unchanged), RU - BR is at 3,990 (unchanged), and NR - BR is at 815 (unchanged). In the inter - market spreads, RU - Tocom RSS3 ($) is at 11 (up 27), and NR - Sicom TF ($) is at 37 (up 7) [3] Raw Material Prices - In Thailand (in Thai baht per kilogram), the price of smoked sheet rubber is 61.65 (up 1.25), the price of raw rubber sheet is 58.55 (down 0.15), the price of glue is 54.00 (unchanged), and the price of cup - lump is 48.30 (up 0.15). In Hainan and Yunnan (in yuan per ton), the price of Hainan glue for concentrated latex is 14,000 (up 200), the price of Hainan glue for whole - milk rubber is 13,100 (unchanged), the price of Yunnan glue for concentrated latex is 14,300 (down 100), and the price of Yunnan rubber block for whole - milk rubber is 14,000 (unchanged) [3] Factory Costs and Profits - The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber: in Hainan it is 454 (up 34), in Yunnan it is - 626 (up 34). The production profit of concentrated latex is 728 (up 9). The profit of Hainan is 700 (down 130). The gross profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber is 2,644 (up 101), the gross profit of Thai 20 - number rubber is - 184 (up 3), and the gross profit of domestic 9710 is 250 (up 50) [3] Domestic Spot - For light - colored rubber, the price of old whole - milk rubber is 14,550 (up 50), the price of Vietnamese 3L is 14,650 (unchanged), the price of Thai mixed rubber is 14,350 (up 30), and the price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 14,300 (up 30). For dark - colored rubber, the price of Thai standard rubber is 12,664 (up 25), the price of domestic standard - two rubber is 13,700 (up 50), and the price of domestic 9710 is 14,250 (up 50). For latex, the price of Shanghai: Huangchunfa bulk is 11,600 (unchanged), and the price of Shanghai: Hainan bulk is 11,100 (unchanged). For synthetic rubber, the price of cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,550 (down 50), the price of styrene - butadiene SBR1502 is 12,050 (up 50), and the price of Japanese SBR1712 is 10,950 (up 100) [3] Overseas Spot - For mixed rubber, the CIF price of Thai mixed rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Malaysian mixed rubber is 1,770 (up 5). For standard rubber, the CIF price of Thai standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), the CIF price of Malaysian standard rubber is 1,780 (up 5), and the CIF price of Indian standard rubber is 1,770 (up 5) [3] Spot - Futures Spreads - For RU spreads, RU - Thai mixed rubber is - 15, RU - old whole - milk rubber is 200 (down 35), and RU - Vietnamese 3L is + 15. For NR spreads, the delivery profit of NR - Thai standard rubber is - 573 (up 3), the delivery profit of NR - Indian standard rubber is - 70 (up 2), and the delivery profit of NR - Malaysian standard rubber is - 501 (up 3) [3] Spot Spreads - For variety spreads, the price difference between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber ($) is 10 (unchanged), the price difference between Vietnamese 3L and Thai mixed rubber is 300 (down 30), the price difference between domestic standard - two rubber and Thai mixed rubber is - 650 (up 20), the price difference between old whole - milk rubber and Vietnamese 3L is - 100 (up 50), and the price difference between domestic 9710 and Thai mixed rubber is - 100 (up 20) [3] Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index is 98.2230 (unchanged), the US dollar/Chinese yuan is at 7.1345 (down 0.006), the US dollar/Japanese yen is at 147.3565 (unchanged), the US dollar/Thai baht is at 32.3650 (unchanged). For interest rates, SHIBOR - overnight is 1.315 (down 0.001), and SHIBOR - seven - day is 1.434 (down 0.008) [3]