Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the recent weak raw material market and continuous shipping pressure, domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprise inventories decreased slightly this week. However, downstream shipping pressure remains, and production and trading enterprise inventories are expected to increase slightly. [2] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance schedules, and some reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Next week, as maintenance ends, production will recover, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. [2] - The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,500 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract was 11,185 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the position of the main contract was 28,760, up 871. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 60 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 700 tons, unchanged. [2] - **Spot Market**: The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong and Shanghai was 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber was 315 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. [2] - **Upstream Raw Materials**: Brent crude oil was 69.11 dollars/barrel, up 2 dollars; WTI crude oil was 67.45 dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 572.25 dollars/ton, up 1.5 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 850 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the market price of butadiene in Shandong was 8,875 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan. [2] b. Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 69.75%, down 0.31 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 27,450 tons, down 950 tons. The operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation unit was 45.02%, up 0.07 percentage points. [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.94 million tons, up 1.79 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 68.54%, up 2.22 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 578 yuan/ton, down 1,165 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.41 million tons, up 0.07 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 27,650 tons, up 700 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,370 tons, down 450 tons. [2] c. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.05%, down 0.24 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 65.64%, up 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 11.82 million pieces, down 1.26 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 54.15 million pieces, down 1.24 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 41.93 days, up 0.04 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 48.15 days, up 0.73 days. [2] d. Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56%. [2] - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year. [2] - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles, up 4% from May and 29% from the same period last year. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 5.333 million vehicles, up about 6% year - on - year. [2]