1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to a weak fundamental situation, with cautious market funds under macro uncertainties, and the NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 489 tons, with an expected slight decrease in the annual harvesting area by 0.1% to 22.5 million rai, and an increase in the annual yield per mu by 1.9% to 217 kg/rai [5]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 2.7% year - on - year to 546,000 tons, and the total exports to China increased by 4.5% year - on - year to 392,000 tons [7]. - Malaysia launched the rubber production subsidy (IPG) for small farmers in June 2025 [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets showed a slight decline, with a relatively larger decline in Japanese rubber. On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 0.28%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.70% respectively compared to the previous week [12][13]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the spread between September and January contracts showed different trends. As of July 4, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 88.89% and a year - on - year increase of 99.02%. The spread between September and January contracts was - 865 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year increase of 26.38% [14]. - The spreads between RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 widened, while the spreads between RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were 1920 yuan/ton, 2805 yuan/ton, 431.95 yuan/ton, and - 1437.96 yuan/ton respectively [20][21]. - The spreads of non - standard basis and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were as shown in the data, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [23][31]. - The spreads between substitute products and RU widened. As of July 4, 2025, the values of the spreads between butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber and RU were - 2505 yuan/ton and - 2205 yuan/ton respectively [33]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was at a high level, and the settled funds decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.09 and 11.34 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.281 billion yuan and 816 million yuan respectively [35][36]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeastern region was slightly lower this week, and the rainfall decreased month - on - month; the weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. In Yunnan and Hainan in China, the recent rainfall increased significantly, restricting the output of new rubber and causing an increase in raw material prices. In Southeast Asia, the weather improved, and the tapping work gradually resumed, but the supply side still lacked strong drivers [40][41][44]. - The price difference between Thai cup lumps and latex decreased significantly, and the price difference between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these price differences were 6.05 baht/kg and 1200 yuan/ton respectively [50][51]. - The production profit of Thai cup lumps decreased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets, concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex improved. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these production profits were - 556 yuan/ton, 1447 yuan/ton, 417.79 yuan/ton, and 819.48 yuan/ton respectively [53][54]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [57][58]. - **Demand** - This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of tires decreased marginally. As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.53% and 64.13% respectively, and the inventory days were 40.45 days and 46.48 days respectively [61][62]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy - trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [65][66]. - **Inventory** - As of June 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to increase, mainly due to the increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The futures and spot inventories of natural rubber and 20 - rubber at relevant exchanges also showed corresponding changes [68][72][73]. Operation Suggestions - It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77].