国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【科特迪瓦前7个月橡胶出口量同比增14.3%】最新数据显示，2025年前7个月，科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计908,487吨，较2024年同期的794,831吨增加14.3%。 单看7月数据，出口量同比增加28.3%，环比增加28.5%。科特迪瓦是非洲重要的天然橡胶生产国。近些年科特迪瓦橡胶出口连年增加，因农户受稳定的收益驱使， 将播种作物从可可转为橡胶。 2.【美国上半年轮胎进口量同比增6.8%】最新数据显示，2025年上半年美国进口轮胎共计14343万条，同比增加 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak domestic raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, the overall inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly last week, but the downstream shipment pressure remained high, and the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises' production schedules were stable, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. This week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will resume, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,305 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 28,033, down 2,243; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 1,600 tons, up 500 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased, with a decline of 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 145 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.28 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 dollars/barrel, up 1.43 dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 577 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, up 1.16 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, down 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.97%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98%, down 1.56 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 164 yuan/ton, up 414 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, down 1,300 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,800 tons, up 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% [2]. - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 5.333 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 2.【6月我国重卡销量全面上涨】根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年6月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.2万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比 今年5月小幅上涨4%，比上年同期的7.14万辆上涨约29%。累计来看，今年1-6月，我国重卡市场累计销量约为53.33万辆，同比增长约6%。 3.【越南前5个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比降2.7%】据QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前5个月，越南出口天然橡胶合计20.5万吨，较去年的25万吨同比下 降18%。其中，标胶出口11.8 ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-06-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) -270 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10875 | 31557 | 3140 | | | 合成橡胶6-7价差(日,元/吨) 95 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 70 | 6120 | -90 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 50 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 11600 | 11400 | -50 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | | | | | | 0 | 11450 | 11500 | 0 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 东(日,元/吨) 170 | 625 | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 0.73 石脑油:CFR日本( ...

研究报告 橡胶周报 胶价总体延续弱势，盘面或将震荡偏弱 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 14530-15115 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡回落，总体小幅下跌。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 截至 2025 年 5 月 23 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 14535 元/吨，当周下跌 370 点，跌幅 2.48%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡回落，总体小幅 下跌。 报告日期：2025 年 5 月 26 日星期一 展望后市，从消息面看，5 月 21 日，欧盟对中国轮胎启动 反倾销调查，利空橡胶。从基本面来看，供给方面，天气扰动 主产区割胶工作，成本端存在支撑。天然橡胶进口增加明显。 需求方面，上周轮胎企业开工率均微幅回落。成品库存持续累 库，处于历史高位。终端车市方面，4 月汽车产销量均同比小幅 增长 ...

Group 1: Report's Core View - The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has rebounded, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. The technical analysis shows that the downside space for rubber prices may be limited, and future operations can be based on an oscillating and bullish approach [2][71] Group 2: Market Review - The report presents the weekly trends of the Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, and synthetic rubber main contracts, as well as the spread trend between the futures active contracts RU - NR and the basis of synthetic rubber BR futures and spot [9][12][14] Group 3: Rubber Fundamentals 3.1 Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. The ANRPC's March 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in March will increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.4% to 14.897 million tons. The export volume of rubber in Cote d'Ivoire from January to April 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year [26][30] - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import volume was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase [33] - As of Thursday, the total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures on the SHFE decreased by 320 tons week - on - week to 200,340 tons, while the total warehouse receipt inventory of No. 20 rubber futures increased by 5,945 tons to 75,196 tons [36] - As of the week of May 9, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.52 million tons to 4.907 million tons, with the bonded area inventory increasing by 0.59 million tons and the general trade inventory decreasing by 70,000 tons [38] 3.2 Demand - Side - From January to March 2025, China's tire outer - tube production increased by 4.4% year - on - year to 283.634 million pieces [42] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 40 billion yuan, a 7% increase [44] - This week, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.07%, up 20.32% from last week, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.96%, up 19.98% from last week [47] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat trend [56] - At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China decreased slightly to 10.93 million pieces, while the total inventory of semi - steel tires increased slightly to 18.14 million pieces [59] 3.3 Related Product Prices and Inventories - The report also presents the price trend of butadiene and the inventory situation of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises [61][63] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of May 16, the spot prices of 23 - year SCRWF and Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber in the Shanghai market declined. Currently, the fundamentals lack core positive support, downstream demand is average, and new rubber output is expected to increase. However, the rainfall in Thailand may affect the output rhythm, and the increase in imports in China will suppress price movements [70]