1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the natural rubber market is expected to enter a period of range - bound consolidation. The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In Q3 2025, the European replacement tire market sales decreased by 0.6% year - on - year to 63.984 million pieces. Passenger car tire sales decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, truck and bus tire shipments decreased by 4% year - on - year, agricultural tire shipments increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and motorcycle/scooter tire shipments increased by 1% year - on - year [5]. - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 1% to 4.86 million tons. The northern region will increase by 3.1%, the northeastern region by 1.3%, the central region will decrease by 1.7%, and the southern region will increase by 1.2%. The annual harvesting area is expected to slightly decrease by 0.1%, while the per - mu yield will increase by 0.9% [6]. - In October 2025, China imported 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to October, the total import volume was 6.782 million tons, a 17.2% increase from the same period in 2024 [7]. - The European Commission officially launched an anti - subsidy investigation into passenger cars and light - truck tires on November 6, 2025 [7]. Market Trends - This week, the prices of RU, NR, and the overseas TSR20 in the rubber market declined synchronously, with NR leading the decline, while the price of Japanese rubber increased. As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 14,995 yuan/ton, a 0.60% decrease from the previous period; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,035 yuan/ton, a 1.67% decrease; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2601 was 168.70 cents/kg, a 1.17% decrease; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2601 was 312.90 yen/kg, a 1.10% increase [9][11]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region shows a seasonal decline, with a slight increase at the end of the week due to the influence of typhoons. In China, the rainfall in Hainan production area decreased this week, and the rainfall in Yunnan production area decreased seasonally [41][43]. - The raw material prices in domestic and foreign production areas are showing a differentiated trend due to the typhoon's impact on rubber tapping and the weakened purchasing enthusiasm of factories. As of November 7, 2025, the price of glue in Thailand was 56.30 baht/kg, a 0.54% decrease from the previous period; the price of raw rubber sheets was 55.55 baht/kg, a 0.36% increase; the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,000 yuan/ton, a 0.76% decrease; and the price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,700 yuan/ton, a 2.84% decrease [45][47]. - The production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets and Thai concentrated latex decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 559 yuan/ton, a 32.16% increase from the previous period; the production profit of Thai smoked sheets was 460.99 yuan/ton, a 12.84% decrease; the production profit of Thai concentrated latex was 1,967 yuan/ton, a 2.91% decrease; and the production profit of Hainan concentrated latex was - 133.77 yuan/ton, an 18.25% increase [55][58]. - In September 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month. The exports of standard rubber decreased significantly year - on - year, while the exports of smoked sheets increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. Thailand's natural rubber exports to China decreased month - on - month, with a significant increase in the exports of smoked sheets to China year - on - year and month - on - month, and a significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber year - on - year and month - on - month [65][68]. - In October 2025, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to the significant decrease in the exports of standard rubber, while the exports of mixed rubber continued to increase month - on - month. The total exports to China also decreased month - on - month [71]. - In September 2025, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the exports to China decreased seasonally, with the reduction mainly in latex and standard rubber [75]. - In September 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports continued to grow at a high rate, and the exports to China increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [79]. - In September 2025, China imported 595,900 tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a 14.41% increase month - on - month and a 20.92% increase year - on - year. The imports of Indonesian standard rubber and mixed rubber increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [83]. Demand - Last week, the production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate, and most other enterprises' equipment operated stably. During the period, the products were mainly sold in the normal way, and the overall inventory fluctuated slightly. The all - steel tires started to accumulate inventory again this week, and the semi - steel tires also accumulated inventory. As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%, a 0.05% increase from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, a 1.07% increase; the inventory days of all - steel tires were 39.20 days, a 0.49% increase; and the inventory days of semi - steel tires were 45.05 days, a 0.51% increase [86][88]. - In September 2025, the exports of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month, but the exports of all - steel tires were still at a relatively high level year - on - year. The sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to grow year - on - year and month - on - month, and the sales volume of passenger cars continued to grow at a high rate year - on - year and month - on - month [89]. - In September 2025, the freight turnover of road transportation improved year - on - year and month - on - month, while the passenger turnover decreased year - on - year and month - on - month [92]. Inventory - The current domestic natural rubber inventory has increased significantly, with an increase in dark - colored rubber and a decrease in light - colored rubber. The inventory in Qingdao has increased significantly. As of October 31, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.056 million tons, a 1.64% increase from the previous week; the inventory of dark - colored rubber was 657,900 tons, a 2.92% increase; and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 398,200 tons, a 0.40% decrease [99]. - As of November 7, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 119,000 tons, a 1.60% decrease from the previous week; the futures and spot inventory was 162,200 tons, a 0.08% increase; the futures inventory of 20 - grade rubber on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange was 48,600 tons, an 8.80% increase; and the futures and spot inventory was 51,900 tons, a 5.97% increase [105]. This Week's View Summary - Supply: The domestic production areas are gradually entering the production reduction period, and the domestic raw material prices are firm. After the decline in rubber prices, downstream buyers are stocking up at low prices, which may increase the warehouse pick - up volume next week and slow down the inventory accumulation rate [111]. - Demand: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.89%, and that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.37%. The production of maintenance enterprises returned to the normal level last week, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will operate stably with a slight weakness in the next period [110]. - View: It is expected that the natural rubber market will enter a period of range - bound consolidation in the short term. From the perspective of inventory and phased supply, light - colored rubber may still perform better than dark - colored rubber [111]. - Strategy: For unilateral trading, consider buying on dips after a sharp decline; if the market is in a narrow - range consolidation, it is advisable to wait and see. For inter - period trading, observe. For options, investors who meet the suitability requirements can consider selling out - of - the - money put options [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may be strongly sorted due to weather disturbances. Overseas raw material prices are slightly up, and domestic spot inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamental support is strengthening, so the rubber price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger. The suggested strategies are to expect a side - way but upward - biased trend for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, with a 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month increase in July [5]. - In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, while those from Thailand increased by 12% year - on - year [5]. - In July 2025, China's rubber imports increased by 3.4% year - on - year to 63.4 tons. From January to July, imports increased by 20.8% year - on - year [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 1.2% year - on - year [7]. Price - This week, both domestic and foreign markets rose synchronously. On August 8, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 increased by 2.57%, 2.03%, 2.57%, and 0.83% respectively compared with last week [11][12]. - The basis and spread data show that the basis of whole - milk to RU01 was - 1000 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, with a 16.28% month - on - month decrease and a 33.77% year - on - year increase. The 01 - 05 spread was - 95 yuan/ton, with a 17.39% month - on - month increase and a 42.42% year - on - year increase [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The non - standard basis of imported rubber showed different changes, and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [24][28][32]. - The price of synthetic rubber was stable, while RU increased, so the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened [36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared with the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was at a high level, and the settled funds were still at a high level [41]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand returned to normal levels compared with the same period in previous years. Rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has recently eased [46][47]. - The price of Thai cup - lump increased, while the price of smoked sheets decreased. The prices of glue in Yunnan and Hainan were stable [49]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup - lump and the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk decreased [58]. - Thailand's rubber processing profit decreased, while Hainan's concentrated latex processing profit improved [61]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. Imports of Thai - mixed, Vietnamese - mixed, and Vietnamese - standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while imports of Thai - standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [67]. Demand - During the period, the capacity utilization rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises decreased, dragging down the overall rate. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, but the increase was limited [71]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [74]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly, and both the inventories of dark and light - colored rubber decreased. The decrease in Qingdao port inventory was due to enterprises' replenishment and the decrease in shipments from the main production areas [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the weak domestic raw material market and continuous shipment pressure, the overall inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber enterprises decreased slightly last week, but the downstream shipment pressure remained high, and the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises is expected to increase slightly [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased month - on - month. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had maintenance arrangements for 4 - 11 days, and some enterprises reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Most tire enterprises' production schedules were stable, and the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. This week, as enterprise maintenance ends, production will resume, which will boost the overall capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises. The BR2508 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,600 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,305 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 28,033, down 2,243; the 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber was 85 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 1,600 tons, up 500 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased, with a decline of 50 - 100 yuan/ton; the basis of synthetic rubber was 145 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan/ton [2]. - The price of Brent crude oil was 69.58 dollars/barrel, up 1.28 dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil was 67.93 dollars/barrel, up 1.43 dollars/barrel; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 820 dollars/ton, down 30 dollars/ton; the price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was 577 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene (CFR China) was 1,060 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 8,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.91%, up 1.16 percentage points; the port inventory of butadiene was 22,330 tons, down 5,120 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 44.97%, down 0.05 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 66.98%, down 1.56 percentage points; the weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 164 yuan/ton, up 414 yuan/ton; the social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons; the manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, down 1,300 tons; the trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,800 tons, up 430 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 70.41%, down 7.64 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 63.75%, down 1.89 percentage points; the monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.45 days, down 1.48 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.48 days, down 1.67 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 3, the inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 33,200 tons, down 900 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.56% [2]. - As of July 3, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 64.13%, down 6.27 percentage points month - on - month and 15.85 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.53%, down 0.70 percentage points month - on - month and 0.96 percentage points year - on - year [2]. - In June 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 920,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month increase of 4% and a year - on - year increase of about 29%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck market were about 5.333 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to a weak fundamental situation, with cautious market funds under macro uncertainties, and the NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 489 tons, with an expected slight decrease in the annual harvesting area by 0.1% to 22.5 million rai, and an increase in the annual yield per mu by 1.9% to 217 kg/rai [5]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 2.7% year - on - year to 546,000 tons, and the total exports to China increased by 4.5% year - on - year to 392,000 tons [7]. - Malaysia launched the rubber production subsidy (IPG) for small farmers in June 2025 [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets showed a slight decline, with a relatively larger decline in Japanese rubber. On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 0.28%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.70% respectively compared to the previous week [12][13]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the spread between September and January contracts showed different trends. As of July 4, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 88.89% and a year - on - year increase of 99.02%. The spread between September and January contracts was - 865 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year increase of 26.38% [14]. - The spreads between RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 widened, while the spreads between RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were 1920 yuan/ton, 2805 yuan/ton, 431.95 yuan/ton, and - 1437.96 yuan/ton respectively [20][21]. - The spreads of non - standard basis and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were as shown in the data, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [23][31]. - The spreads between substitute products and RU widened. As of July 4, 2025, the values of the spreads between butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber and RU were - 2505 yuan/ton and - 2205 yuan/ton respectively [33]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was at a high level, and the settled funds decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.09 and 11.34 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.281 billion yuan and 816 million yuan respectively [35][36]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeastern region was slightly lower this week, and the rainfall decreased month - on - month; the weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. In Yunnan and Hainan in China, the recent rainfall increased significantly, restricting the output of new rubber and causing an increase in raw material prices. In Southeast Asia, the weather improved, and the tapping work gradually resumed, but the supply side still lacked strong drivers [40][41][44]. - The price difference between Thai cup lumps and latex decreased significantly, and the price difference between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these price differences were 6.05 baht/kg and 1200 yuan/ton respectively [50][51]. - The production profit of Thai cup lumps decreased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets, concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex improved. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these production profits were - 556 yuan/ton, 1447 yuan/ton, 417.79 yuan/ton, and 819.48 yuan/ton respectively [53][54]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [57][58]. - **Demand** - This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of tires decreased marginally. As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.53% and 64.13% respectively, and the inventory days were 40.45 days and 46.48 days respectively [61][62]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy - trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [65][66]. - **Inventory** - As of June 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to increase, mainly due to the increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The futures and spot inventories of natural rubber and 20 - rubber at relevant exchanges also showed corresponding changes [68][72][73]. Operation Suggestions - It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of butadiene rubber production has decreased slightly but there are still large losses, and private enterprises may further reduce their production. The supply is expected to continue to decrease as the overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical starts. The spot market price of butadiene rubber has continued to decline and it's difficult to attract trading. The inventories of production and trading enterprises increased last week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week and may continue to decline in the short - term. The br2507 contract may seek support downward in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 31,557, an increase of 3,140. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 6,120 tons, a decrease of 90 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 625 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 64.63 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 780 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 561.63 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.13 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,150 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Upstream Situation - WTI crude oil is 62.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.73 dollars/barrel. The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.3%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.09%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.68 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 73.54%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.17 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; that of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,308 million pieces, a decrease of 61 million pieces; that of semi - steel tires is 5,539 million pieces, a decrease of 427 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; that of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of May 29, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.45 million tons, a 5.06% increase from the previous period. The raw material market was weak, the supply was sufficient, the bearish sentiment among industry players increased, and the price of butadiene rubber in the spot market continued to decline. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease from April and a 6% increase from the same period last year. From January to May, the cumulative sales were about 435,500 vehicles, a 1% increase year - on - year [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The EU's anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires is negative for rubber, while supply has support, terminal demand is fair, and inventory has slightly decreased [8][87] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main natural rubber futures contract RU2509 ranged from 14,530 to 15,115 yuan/ton, with a slight overall decline. As of May 23, 2025, it closed at 14,535 yuan/ton, down 370 points or 2.48% for the week [6][12] 3.1.2 Spot Price - As of May 23, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,700 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 20,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,850 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last week. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,350 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars/ton from last week [18][22] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main natural rubber contract as the futures reference price, the basis slightly expanded. As of May 23, 2025, the basis was 45 yuan/ton, 65 yuan/ton wider than last week. The domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber both increased significantly compared to last week [27][31] 3.2 Important Market Information - The US manufacturing PMI in May rose to a three - month high of 52.3, and the service PMI reached a two - month high. The new order growth rate was the fastest in more than a year, but manufacturing export orders contracted for the second consecutive month, and the employment index declined. Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, and his tax - cut bill passed the House and will go to the Senate. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than 4 trillion US dollars in the next decade, cut at least 1.5 trillion US dollars in spending, and raise the US debt ceiling by 4 trillion US dollars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts [32] - The Australian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved slightly in May, but the service PMI fell sharply. The market increased bets on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates twice this year. The UK's CPI rose in April, and the market reduced bets on the Bank of England to cut interest rates. The Indonesian central bank cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5% [33][35] - China's economy grew steadily in April. The industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail all increased year - on - year. The LPR was lowered, and banks cut deposit interest rates. The prices of new houses in first - and second - tier cities were flat in April, and those in third - tier cities declined slightly. China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year in April, and the retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in May are expected to increase [36][37] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in Indonesia's main rubber - producing areas increased slightly from the previous month, while that in Vietnam decreased slightly. The production in Malaysia and India decreased significantly, and that in Thailand decreased sharply. China's main producing areas started tapping gradually. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [44] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%, and the cumulative production was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [48][51][54] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - As of May 22, 2025, the开工 rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 78.22%, down 0.11% from last week, and that of all - steel tire enterprises was 64.96%, down 0.13% from last week [57] - As of April 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.6188 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 12.88%. The monthly sales were 2.5896 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9.78% and a month - on - month decrease of 11.18%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 87,667 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.52% and a month - on - month decrease of 21.36% [61][64][69] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [72][78] 3.5 Inventory - side Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,270 tons, 230 tons less than last week. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,000 tons or 0.96%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons or 0.73% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.34% to 92,100 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.25% to 522,100 tons [85] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Global natural rubber main producing areas are gradually starting to tap. Recently, rainfall has affected tapping work, leading to firm raw material prices and cost support for rubber prices. In April 2025, China's natural rubber imports decreased month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [86] - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of semi - steel and all - steel tire enterprises slightly declined. Finished product inventories continued to accumulate and were at a historical high. In the terminal automobile market, China's automobile production and sales increased slightly year - on - year in April but decreased slightly month - on - month. The heavy - duty truck sales increased year - on - year in April but decreased month - on - month, and the cumulative sales from January to April decreased slightly year - on - year. The trade - in policy boosted terminal consumption. China's automobile and rubber tire exports increased in 2025 [86] - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to decline slightly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both decreased slightly [86] 3.7后市展望 - The price of rubber generally continues to be weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in main producing areas, tapping conditions at home and abroad, rubber import situation, demand changes, and inventory changes [8][87] 3.8 Operation Strategy - It is expected that the main natural rubber futures contract will fluctuate weakly this week. It is recommended to wait and see for now. Aggressive investors can consider going long lightly on dips, paying attention to the support around the 14,000 integer mark [10][88]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The downstream tire enterprise operating rate has rebounded, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. The technical analysis shows that the downside space for rubber prices may be limited, and future operations can be based on an oscillating and bullish approach [2][71] Group 2: Market Review - The report presents the weekly trends of the Shanghai Rubber RU main contract, Japanese rubber, and synthetic rubber main contracts, as well as the spread trend between the futures active contracts RU - NR and the basis of synthetic rubber BR futures and spot [9][12][14] Group 3: Rubber Fundamentals 3.1 Supply - Side - The total planting area of ANRPC natural rubber has been decreasing since 2017. The ANRPC's March 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in March will increase by 0.9% to 798,000 tons, and the annual production in 2025 will increase by 0.4% to 14.897 million tons. The export volume of rubber in Cote d'Ivoire from January to April 2025 increased by 5.2% year - on - year [26][30] - In April 2025, China imported 685,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to April 2025, the total import volume was 2.869 million tons, a 23.2% increase [33] - As of Thursday, the total warehouse receipt inventory of natural rubber futures on the SHFE decreased by 320 tons week - on - week to 200,340 tons, while the total warehouse receipt inventory of No. 20 rubber futures increased by 5,945 tons to 75,196 tons [36] - As of the week of May 9, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.52 million tons to 4.907 million tons, with the bonded area inventory increasing by 0.59 million tons and the general trade inventory decreasing by 70,000 tons [38] 3.2 Demand - Side - From January to March 2025, China's tire outer - tube production increased by 4.4% year - on - year to 283.634 million pieces [42] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 2.24 million tons, a 6.2% year - on - year increase, and the export value was 40 billion yuan, a 7% increase [44] - This week, the operating rate of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 65.07%, up 20.32% from last week, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 77.96%, up 19.98% from last week [47] - In April 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 90,000 vehicles, a 9.4% increase from the same period last year. From January to April, the cumulative sales volume was about 355,000 vehicles, showing a year - on - year flat trend [56] - At the end of April 2025, the total inventory of all - steel tires in China decreased slightly to 10.93 million pieces, while the total inventory of semi - steel tires increased slightly to 18.14 million pieces [59] 3.3 Related Product Prices and Inventories - The report also presents the price trend of butadiene and the inventory situation of cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises [61][63] Group 4: Market Outlook - As of May 16, the spot prices of 23 - year SCRWF and Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber in the Shanghai market declined. Currently, the fundamentals lack core positive support, downstream demand is average, and new rubber output is expected to increase. However, the rainfall in Thailand may affect the output rhythm, and the increase in imports in China will suppress price movements [70]