国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2026年1月4日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【越南前11个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比降5.6%】最新数据显示，2025年前11个月，越南出口天然橡胶累计64.3万吨，较去年的71.9万吨同比下降 11%。其中，标胶出口30.4万吨，同比降21%，包括SVR10出口10.1万吨，SVR3L出口10.8万吨，SVRCV60出口6.2万吨；烟片胶出口6.1万吨，同比降9%；乳胶 出口27.6万吨，同比则增2.2%。1-11月，越南出口混合橡胶累计99.9万吨，较去年的102万吨同比下降2%。其中，SVR3L混合 ...

Domestic Prices - The average price of concentrated latex in Hainan Province is 10,500 yuan/ton, down 1.87% compared to last week [3] - The average price of all latex in Qingdao is 14,575 yuan/ton, up 1.57% from last week; the same price is observed in Tianjin [4] - The average price of all latex in Shanghai is 14,675 yuan/ton, up 1.56% from last week [4] - The average price of mixed rubber in Qingdao is 14,800 yuan/ton, up 0.68% from last week [4] International Prices - The average price of Thai smoked sheets in the bonded zone and CIF is 2,130 USD/ton and 2,120 USD/ton, down 1.62% from last week [6] - The average price of Thai standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,815 USD/ton, with the bonded zone price up 1.09% and CIF down 1.11% from last week [6] - The average price of Indonesian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,745 USD/ton and 1,712.5 USD/ton, up 1.16% and 0.44% respectively from last week [9] - The average price of Malaysian standard rubber in the bonded zone and CIF is 1,855 USD/ton and 1,800 USD/ton, up 1.09% and 0.84% respectively from last week [10] - The average price of Vietnamese 3L remains unchanged at 1,875 USD/ton [13] Futures Prices - The average price of all latex (RU) and 20 standard rubber (NR) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 15,342.5 yuan/ton and 12,390 yuan/ton, up 0.54% and 0.69% respectively from last week [14] - The average prices for the same products in 2024 are 18,746 yuan/ton and 14,351 yuan/ton, down 18.16% and 13.67% compared to the same period last year [14] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Singapore Exchange is 201.6 cents/kg, down 3.63% from last week; TSR20 futures average price is 172.7 cents/kg, up 0.7% from last week [17] - The average price of RSS3 futures on the Japan Exchange is 311 yuan/kg, up 1.9% from last week [18]

新华财经北京12月16日电 农业农村部发布2025年11月天然橡胶市场动态，据农业农村部农垦局监测，11月，泰国3号烟胶片（RSS3）市场价格月内呈稳中略 高走势，月均价格环比上涨；印尼20号标准胶（SIR20）市场价格月内走势平稳，月均价格环比下跌。国内主销区国产全乳标准胶（SCRWF）现货价格走势 与国外基本一致，全月整体在14300—14950元／吨之间波动，价格重心较上月下移。 国外主产区：11月，泰国RSS3平均价格2048美元／吨，环比上涨6美元／吨，最高价2095美元／吨，最低价1995美元／吨；印尼SIR20平均价格1683美元／ 吨，环比下跌9美元／吨，最高价1705美元／吨，最低价1650美元／吨；新加坡RSS3期货主力合约月均结算价格2047美元／吨，环比上涨26美元／吨，最高 价2120美元／吨，最低价1999美元／吨。 国内主产区：11月，云南产区生产较为稳定，原料正常释放，海南产区天气状况改善，原料价格波动不大。云南、海南鲜胶乳（折干胶）月均价格分别为 13921元／吨、14279元／吨，环比分别上涨98元／吨、526元／吨。 国内主销区：11月，国产全乳标准胶上海市场平均价格14 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate [102] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The European Parliament voted to postpone the implementation of EUDR by 12 months. The new implementation schedule is December 30, 2026, for large - and medium - sized operators and June 30, 2027, for small and micro operators [5] - Floods in southern Thailand may lead to a rubber shortage. At least 13 million rai of rubber plantations were affected, and the rubber production loss exceeded 20,000 tons [6] - In the first 10 months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, while exports to China increased by 3% [7] 3.2 Market Trends - This week, most domestic and foreign rubber futures closed higher, with NR slightly declining. On November 28, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,410 yuan/ton, up 1.12% from the previous period; NR2601 was 12,275 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [9][11] 3.3 Basis and Calendar Spread - On November 28, 2025, the basis of whole milk - RU01 was - 410 yuan/ton, down 5.13% from the previous period; the 01 - 05 calendar spread was - 35 yuan/ton, up 56.25% [15] 3.4 Other Spreads - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads increased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread decreased [18] - In the import rubber market, traders mainly engaged in wheel - warehouse replacement. The far - month Thai mixed rubber weakened again after a reduction in buying orders, and the spot of Thai mixed rubber showed a near - end premium [21] - The spread between whole milk and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [24] 3.5 Substitute Prices - The price of butadiene raw materials oscillated narrowly, and the cost did not boost the market price. The production profit of butadiene rubber remained at a good level. The domestic output of butadiene rubber decreased slightly, and the downstream continued to push down prices [30] 3.6 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU decreased, and the settled funds increased; the virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased, and the settled funds also increased [33] 3.7 Fundamental Data 3.7.1 Supply - In Thailand, the southern region entered the rainy season with increased rainfall, while the rainfall in the northeast decreased seasonally. In China, the rainy seasons in Hainan and Yunnan have ended [38][40] - As domestic production areas gradually enter the production - reduction and tapping - suspension season, and there is continuous heavy rainfall and flood risks in southern Thailand and Vietnam, the supply tightening expectation has increased, and domestic raw material prices have remained firm [42] - The water - cup spread in Thailand widened. The spread of Hainan glue into the latex concentrate factory - into the whole - milk factory was stable, while the spread of Yunnan glue widened [46] - The processing profit of natural rubber has generally recovered, and the delivery profit in Hainan and Yunnan has continued to pick up [49][53] - In October, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, mainly contributed by standard rubber and mixed rubber. Exports to China also increased significantly [59][62] - In October, Indonesia's total natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, mainly due to a significant reduction in standard rubber exports, while the mixed rubber exports continued to increase month - on - month [65] - In October, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a large increase in latex exports. Exports to China rebounded seasonally, with large increases in standard rubber and latex [71] - In October, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports decreased month - on - month, while exports to China continued to increase year - on - year and month - on - month [73] - In October, China imported 510,800 tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.89% [77] 3.7.2 Demand - The capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated. The inventory days of tires decreased, indicating a turning point in the tire inventory accumulation trend [83] - In October, the export of semi - steel tires continued to decline significantly month - on - month, and the export of all - steel tires decreased slightly month - on - month. The sales of heavy - duty trucks and passenger cars increased month - on - month, but the growth rate slowed down [84] - In October, the freight turnover of road transportation decreased month - on - month, while the passenger turnover improved month - on - month [87] 3.7.3 Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber increased significantly, showing a pattern of a decrease in light - colored rubber and an increase in dark - colored rubber. The inventory of dark - colored rubber in Qingdao Port increased at a larger amplitude [94] - The futures inventory of natural rubber and 20 - number rubber increased week - on - week [99] 3.8 This Week's View Summary - This week, the view on natural rubber is to oscillate and consolidate. As of November 23, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.08 million tons, a 1.7% increase. The supply side of tire enterprises is operating weakly [102][103]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost - end support continues due to the difficulty in raw material release affected by rainfall in the producing areas. The spot inventory continues the destocking trend, strengthening the fundamental support and driving the rubber price up. With the approaching of the domestic parade, there will be a short - term impact on the downstream operating rate. The tire export data in July was good due to the low base in June and the effect of rush - to - export, and there is an expectation of a decline in August. The market is expected to show a range - bound trend [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - Thailand and China plan to launch a zero - tariff rubber trade project via the Mekong River in September 2025. The initial shipment is 400 tons, and the monthly export is expected to exceed 10,000 tons after October [5]. - In July 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 914,680 units, but the cumulative sales in the first seven months decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The market share of pure electric vehicles was 15.6%, and hybrid vehicles were still the most popular [6]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the total exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 9.3% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 29% year - on - year [8]. Market Trend - This week, domestic and Singapore rubber prices rose, while Japanese rubber prices slightly declined. On August 29, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15860 yuan/ton, 12795 yuan/ton, 175.90 cents/kg, and 315.50 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.50%, 1.51%, 1.85%, and - 0.41% [11][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On August 29, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 910 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 36.81%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [18]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 3065 yuan/ton, 3975 yuan/ton, 300.82 yuan/ton, and 539.26 yuan/ton respectively [22][23]. - The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 150 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - This week, the cost of butadiene - based rubber was strongly supported, and the prices of butadiene - based rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the prices of butadiene - based rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Chinese mainstream market were 11950 yuan/ton and 12450 yuan/ton respectively [35]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a low level, and the settled funds were also at a low level. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased again, and the settled funds also increased again. On August 29, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 9.52 and 27.20 respectively, and the settled funds were 53.60 billion yuan and 31.62 billion yuan respectively [37][38]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region in the past month was higher than the same period in previous years, and the rainfall in Hainan, China, increased significantly [42][43]. - On August 29, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump, glue, smoked sheet, and raw sheet were 50.50 baht/kg, 55.45 baht/kg, 61.08 baht/kg, and 58.58 baht/kg respectively [47]. - The price spread between Thai glue and cup lump decreased, and the price spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex production and whole - milk production increased [53][54]. - The production profits of Thai smoked sheet and concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased [56][57]. - In July 2025, China imported 47.48 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% [60][61]. Demand - This week, most tire enterprises maintained stable production, some continued to control production, and a few enterprises carried out maintenance. On August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires were 70.97% and 64.89% respectively [64][65]. - In July 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were excellent, the sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover, and the sales of passenger cars decreased seasonally but remained at a high level year - on - year [68][69]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber decreased, with a greater decline than expected. The inbound volume at Qingdao Port decreased by 22% compared with the previous period, while the outbound volume decreased by only 1% [71]. - On August 29, 2025, the futures inventories of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and their corresponding deliverable inventories were 17.86 million tons, 21.24 million tons, 4.57 million tons, and 4.88 million tons respectively [74]. This Week's View Summary - The supply side is affected by rainfall, and the cost support continues. The inventory continues to decrease, strengthening the fundamental support. The approaching parade will impact the downstream operating rate in the short term. The tire export in August is expected to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [78]. - Suggested strategies include waiting and watching, lightly testing long positions at low prices for the 01 contract, conducting 11 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and observing for inter - variety trading [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the short - term due to a weak fundamental situation, with cautious market funds under macro uncertainties, and the NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In 2025, Thailand's rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 489 tons, with an expected slight decrease in the annual harvesting area by 0.1% to 22.5 million rai, and an increase in the annual yield per mu by 1.9% to 217 kg/rai [5]. - In June 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 92,000 vehicles, a 4% month - on - month increase and a 29% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative sales were about 533,300 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year increase [6]. - In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 2.7% year - on - year to 546,000 tons, and the total exports to China increased by 4.5% year - on - year to 392,000 tons [7]. - Malaysia launched the rubber production subsidy (IPG) for small farmers in June 2025 [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets showed a slight decline, with a relatively larger decline in Japanese rubber. On July 4, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 0.28%, 0.62%, 0.43%, and 0.70% respectively compared to the previous week [12][13]. Basis and Spread - The basis of whole - milk rubber to RU and the spread between September and January contracts showed different trends. As of July 4, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 5 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 88.89% and a year - on - year increase of 99.02%. The spread between September and January contracts was - 865 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.85% and a year - on - year increase of 26.38% [14]. - The spreads between RU - NR and RU - JPX RSS3 widened, while the spreads between RU - BR and NR - SGX TSR20 narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were 1920 yuan/ton, 2805 yuan/ton, 431.95 yuan/ton, and - 1437.96 yuan/ton respectively [20][21]. - The spreads of non - standard basis and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber narrowed. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these spreads were as shown in the data, with corresponding month - on - month and year - on - year changes [23][31]. - The spreads between substitute products and RU widened. As of July 4, 2025, the values of the spreads between butadiene rubber, styrene - butadiene rubber and RU were - 2505 yuan/ton and - 2205 yuan/ton respectively [33]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of the RU main contract was at a low level, and the settled funds were at a low level year - on - year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of the NR main contract was at a high level, and the settled funds decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 8.09 and 11.34 respectively, and the settled funds were 4.281 billion yuan and 816 million yuan respectively [35][36]. Fundamental Data - **Supply** - In Thailand, the temperature in the northeastern region was slightly lower this week, and the rainfall decreased month - on - month; the weather in southern Thailand was relatively normal. In Yunnan and Hainan in China, the recent rainfall increased significantly, restricting the output of new rubber and causing an increase in raw material prices. In Southeast Asia, the weather improved, and the tapping work gradually resumed, but the supply side still lacked strong drivers [40][41][44]. - The price difference between Thai cup lumps and latex decreased significantly, and the price difference between Hainan latex for concentrated latex factories and whole - milk factories also decreased. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these price differences were 6.05 baht/kg and 1200 yuan/ton respectively [50][51]. - The production profit of Thai cup lumps decreased, while the production profits of Thai smoked sheets, concentrated latex, and Hainan concentrated latex improved. As of July 4, 2025, the values of these production profits were - 556 yuan/ton, 1447 yuan/ton, 417.79 yuan/ton, and 819.48 yuan/ton respectively [53][54]. - In May 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including mixed and composite rubber) decreased by 13.35% month - on - month and increased by 30.40% year - on - year. The imports of Thai standard rubber and Cote d'Ivoire standard rubber were at a high level [57][58]. - **Demand** - This week, the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises decreased. The inventory of tires decreased marginally. As of July 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 61.53% and 64.13% respectively, and the inventory days were 40.45 days and 46.48 days respectively [61][62]. - In May 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires increased month - on - month and maintained a good year - on - year performance. The sales of passenger cars and heavy - trucks increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [65][66]. - **Inventory** - As of June 27, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to increase, mainly due to the increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. The inventory in Qingdao increased significantly. The futures and spot inventories of natural rubber and 20 - rubber at relevant exchanges also showed corresponding changes [68][72][73]. Operation Suggestions - It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short - term. The NR reverse arbitrage can continue to be held [77].