1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The cost - end support continues due to the difficulty in raw material release affected by rainfall in the producing areas. The spot inventory continues the destocking trend, strengthening the fundamental support and driving the rubber price up. With the approaching of the domestic parade, there will be a short - term impact on the downstream operating rate. The tire export data in July was good due to the low base in June and the effect of rush - to - export, and there is an expectation of a decline in August. The market is expected to show a range - bound trend [77][78]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Industry News - Thailand and China plan to launch a zero - tariff rubber trade project via the Mekong River in September 2025. The initial shipment is 400 tons, and the monthly export is expected to exceed 10,000 tons after October [5]. - In July 2025, EU passenger car sales increased by 7.4% year - on - year to 914,680 units, but the cumulative sales in the first seven months decreased by 0.7% year - on - year. The market share of pure electric vehicles was 15.6%, and hybrid vehicles were still the most popular [6]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 0.8% year - on - year, but the total exports to China increased by 5% year - on - year [7]. - In the first seven months of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 9.3% year - on - year, and the total exports to China increased by 29% year - on - year [8]. Market Trend - This week, domestic and Singapore rubber prices rose, while Japanese rubber prices slightly declined. On August 29, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 were 15860 yuan/ton, 12795 yuan/ton, 175.90 cents/kg, and 315.50 yen/kg respectively, with weekly increases of 1.50%, 1.51%, 1.85%, and - 0.41% [11][12]. Basis and Calendar Spread - On August 29, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 910 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1.62% and a year - on - year increase of 36.81%. The 01 - 05 month spread was - 80 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20.00% and a year - on - year increase of 48.39% [18]. Other Spreads - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 3065 yuan/ton, 3975 yuan/ton, 300.82 yuan/ton, and 539.26 yuan/ton respectively [22][23]. - The spreads of whole - milk rubber to Thai mixed rubber and 3L rubber to Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the spreads were 150 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively [32][33]. Substitute Prices - This week, the cost of butadiene - based rubber was strongly supported, and the prices of butadiene - based rubber increased. On August 29, 2025, the prices of butadiene - based rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Chinese mainstream market were 11950 yuan/ton and 12450 yuan/ton respectively [35]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a low level, and the settled funds were also at a low level. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR increased again, and the settled funds also increased again. On August 29, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratios of RU and NR were 9.52 and 27.20 respectively, and the settled funds were 53.60 billion yuan and 31.62 billion yuan respectively [37][38]. Fundamental Data Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region in the past month was higher than the same period in previous years, and the rainfall in Hainan, China, increased significantly [42][43]. - On August 29, 2025, the prices of Thai cup lump, glue, smoked sheet, and raw sheet were 50.50 baht/kg, 55.45 baht/kg, 61.08 baht/kg, and 58.58 baht/kg respectively [47]. - The price spread between Thai glue and cup lump decreased, and the price spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex production and whole - milk production increased [53][54]. - The production profits of Thai smoked sheet and concentrated latex increased, while the production profits of Thai standard rubber and Hainan concentrated latex decreased [56][57]. - In July 2025, China imported 47.48 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed rubber and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91% [60][61]. Demand - This week, most tire enterprises maintained stable production, some continued to control production, and a few enterprises carried out maintenance. On August 29, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires were 70.97% and 64.89% respectively [64][65]. - In July 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires were excellent, the sales of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover, and the sales of passenger cars decreased seasonally but remained at a high level year - on - year [68][69]. Inventory - This week, the inventory of natural rubber decreased, with a greater decline than expected. The inbound volume at Qingdao Port decreased by 22% compared with the previous period, while the outbound volume decreased by only 1% [71]. - On August 29, 2025, the futures inventories of natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and their corresponding deliverable inventories were 17.86 million tons, 21.24 million tons, 4.57 million tons, and 4.88 million tons respectively [74]. This Week's View Summary - The supply side is affected by rainfall, and the cost support continues. The inventory continues to decrease, strengthening the fundamental support. The approaching parade will impact the downstream operating rate in the short term. The tire export in August is expected to decline. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range [78]. - Suggested strategies include waiting and watching, lightly testing long positions at low prices for the 01 contract, conducting 11 - 1 reverse spreads for inter - period trading, and observing for inter - variety trading [78].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 2.【6月我国重卡销量全面上涨】根据第一商用车网初步掌握的数据，2025年6月份，我国重卡市场共计销售9.2万辆左右（批发口径，包含出口和新能源），环比 今年5月小幅上涨4%，比上年同期的7.14万辆上涨约29%。累计来看，今年1-6月，我国重卡市场累计销量约为53.33万辆，同比增长约6%。 3.【越南前5个月天胶、混合胶合计出口量同比降2.7%】据QinRex最新数据显示，2025年前5个月，越南出口天然橡胶合计20.5万吨，较去年的25万吨同比下 降18%。其中，标胶出口11.8 ...