Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the report's industry investment rating. Core View of the Report Benefiting from the 90-day extension of the China-US trade tariff negotiations, the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and better-than-expected new car sales in the rubber market's downstream, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend in August 2025. The macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend in the future, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [6][7][140]. Summary by Directory 1. Review of the Domestic Rubber Futures Trend in August 2025 In August 2025, the domestic rubber futures sector showed a volatile and upward trend. The Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract rose from 15,075 yuan/ton to around 15,900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.42%. The standard rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 12,090 yuan/ton to around 12,800 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 5.87%. The synthetic rubber futures 2510 contract rose from 11,320 yuan/ton to around 12,000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 6.00% [6][11]. 2. Improvement in the Macro Environment and Increasing Expectation of a Fed Rate Cut In August 2025, the overseas macro environment remained optimistic. The short-term China-US tariff risk was temporarily removed. Trump's nomination of Fed officials and the current inflation and employment data in the US indicate that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each this year. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September is as high as 91.5% [22][23][24]. 3. Stable Growth of the Domestic Economy in July 2025 In July 2025, the national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend. Although the manufacturing PMI declined slightly, other economic indicators showed positive trends. The total industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 387.8 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. The total import and export volume of goods was 3.9102 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7% [37][38][39]. 4. Overseas Rubber Producing Areas in the Peak Harvest Season with Rising Supply Pressure Since 2010, the planting area of natural rubber in Southeast Asian countries has generally increased, but the unit yield has declined due to low rubber prices. According to seasonal patterns, the supply pressure will gradually increase from May to November. In June 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 911,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 48,800 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 50,000 tons. It is expected that the global natural rubber production may decrease by about 5% in 2025 [62][63][66]. 5. A Significant Increase in the Premium Spread between Shanghai Rubber, Standard Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber In August 2025, the spread between Shanghai rubber, standard rubber, and synthetic rubber widened steadily. The premium of the Shanghai rubber futures main contract over the synthetic futures main contract increased from 2,925 yuan/ton to 4,035 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 37.95%. It is expected that the spreads between Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber, and between Shanghai rubber and standard rubber may maintain a high premium in the future [93][94]. 6. Mixed Sales in the Overseas Automobile Market in July 2025 In July 2025, the US automobile sales increased year-on-year, with a total of 1.4072 million vehicles sold, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. The European automobile market declined slightly in June, with new car registrations decreasing by 5.1% year-on-year. In July, the Japanese automobile sales decreased by 3.6% year-on-year. Overall, the overseas automobile market sales were mixed in July 2025 [97][98]. 7. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Automobile Production and Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.591 million and 2.593 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 13.3% and 14.7%. From January to July, the production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million vehicles respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.7% and 12%. It is expected that the domestic automobile market will maintain a growth trend in the second half of 2025 [104][105][108]. 8. A Significant Year-on-Year Increase in Domestic Heavy Truck Sales in July 2025 In July 2025, China's heavy truck sales reached about 83,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 42%. From January to July, the cumulative sales were about 622,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of about 11%. It is expected that the heavy truck sales may exceed 1 million vehicles in 2025. New energy heavy trucks continued to lead the market, and natural gas heavy trucks showed signs of recovery [114][116][117]. 9. A Decline in Domestic Tire Production and a Slight Increase in Natural Rubber Imports In July 2025, China's rubber tire outer tube production was 94.364 million pieces, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. The tire exports were 66.65 million pieces, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, China imported a total of 4.709 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The social inventory of natural rubber showed a seasonal upward trend [121][122][125]. 10. Summary Looking ahead to September 2025, the macro environment remains favorable, and the supply-demand structure of the domestic rubber futures market has improved. It is expected that the rubber futures may maintain a volatile and upward trend, with the performance of Shanghai rubber and standard rubber being stronger than that of synthetic rubber overall [140].