橡胶 | 月报 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 2025 年 8 月 28 日 橡胶 专业研究·创造价值 需求因子改善 橡胶震荡企稳 核心观点 橡胶：受益于中美贸易关税谈判再度延后 90 天，同时美联储 9 月降息 预期增强，叠加胶市下游新车销量好于预期。在偏多因素共振下，2025 年 8 月，国内橡胶期货板块整体呈现震荡偏强的走势。其中，沪胶期货 2601 合约 自 15075 元/吨一线稳步走高至 15900 元/吨附近，累计涨幅达 5.42%；标胶期 货 2510 合约自 12090 元/吨一线稳步走高至 12800 元/吨附近，累计涨幅达 5.87%；合成橡胶期货 2510 合约自 11320 ...

客服产品系列•日评 沪深 300 指数 8 月 27 日回调整理。收盘 4386.13，环比下跌 66.46。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 27 日焦炭加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1669.4，环比下跌 45.9。 8 月 27 日，焦煤加权指数弱势震荡，收盘价 1149.0 元，环比下跌 45.8。 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 28 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（8 月 27 日）A 股三大指数冲高回落，截止收盘，沪指跌 1.76%，收报 3800.35 点；深 证成指跌 1.43%，收报 12295.07 点；创业板指跌 0.69%，收报 2723.20 点。沪深两市成交额史上第三次超过三万 亿，今日达到 31656 亿，较昨日大幅放量 4865 亿。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：港口焦炭现货市场报价上涨，日照港准一级冶金焦现货价格 1490 元/吨，较上期价格上涨 10 元/吨。 供应，多地焦企对焦炭开启第八轮提涨，钢厂方面暂未有明确回应，焦企利润得到明显修复，生产积极性较高， 近期阅兵导致环保趋严，多地焦企执行限产，开工有所回落。需求端，钢厂限产多集中于月底，目前高 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 26 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（8 月 25 日）A 股三大指数延续强势表现，沪指再创十年新高。截止收盘，沪指涨 1.51%， 收报 3883.56 点；深证成指涨 2.26%，收报 12441.07 点；创业板指涨 3%，收报 2762.99 点。沪深两市成交额史 上第二次突破三万亿，今日达到 31411 亿，较上一交易日大幅放量 5944 亿。 沪深 300 指数 8 月 25 日强势依旧。收盘 4469.22，环比上涨 91.22。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 25 日焦炭加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1732.1，环比上涨 69.6。 8 月 25 日，焦煤加权指数宽幅震荡，收盘价 1208.8 元，环比上涨 73.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：2025 年 1-7 月，全球粗钢产量为 10.862 亿吨，同比下降 1.9%。需求端，本期铁水产量 240.75 万吨， +0.09 万吨，铁水高位，煤矿端库存已经不存在压力，库存向下游转移，焦煤总库存总体呈现增加。利润方面， 本期全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].

Variety Viewpoints Stock Index Futures - On August 21, A-share market's three major indexes showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a ten-year high, closing up 0.13% at 3771.10 points; the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.06% at 11919.76 points; and the ChiNext Index down 0.47% at 2595.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2424.1 billion yuan, a slight increase of 1.58 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index had a strong oscillation on August 21, closing at 4288.07, up 16.68 compared to the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On August 21, the weighted index of coke remained weak, closing at 1661.0, down 14.7 compared to the previous day [3] - On August 21, the weighted index of coking coal was weak, closing at 1140.6 yuan, down 14.0 compared to the previous day [4] - For coke, due to an approaching major event, there are expectations of production limitations at coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved slightly, and daily coking production has increased slightly. Overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at a high level during the off - season [5] - For coking coal, the output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market has performed well, with prices mostly rising, and terminal inventory remaining flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Recently, the increase in refining profit has boosted the demand for raw sugar. The market expects that China's strong import pace in July may continue for at least the next few months. Supported by these factors, US sugar oscillated higher on Wednesday. Due to the start of stockpiling for the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, the spot price has been firm recently. Affected by the rise in US sugar and the increase in spot price, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward on Thursday. However, due to the large short - term increase, it oscillated and adjusted slightly lower at night. In July 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons, but a month - on - month increase, hitting a new high for the year [5] Rubber - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 to 26. Supported by concerns about bad weather in major rubber - producing areas, Shanghai rubber oscillated slightly higher on Thursday. At night, it fluctuated slightly. According to LMC Automotive, in July 2025, the seasonally adjusted annualized sales volume of global light vehicles rose to 94 million vehicles per year. Year - on - year, the global market sales volume increased by more than 6% to 7.46 million vehicles [6] Soybean Meal - In the international market on August 21, CBOT soybean futures rose sharply due to short - covering and bargain - hunting. The November contract of US soybeans closed at 1055 cents per bushel. During the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour on Wednesday, the inspection team found that the soybean outlook in western Iowa was much better than average. Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) said that Brazil's soybean exports in August are expected to be 8.9 million tons, higher than the previous week's forecast of 8.8 million tons [6] - In the domestic market on August 21, the M2601 main contract closed at 3113 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.49%. Chinese importers have not purchased new - crop US soybeans. All the purchased soybean orders for the fourth quarter are from South America. The increase in Brazilian soybean costs and the non - purchase of new - crop US soybeans have raised concerns about a tightening of later - stage soybean meal supply, which has significantly supported forward prices. However, currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, oil refineries' operating rates are high, which has promoted the recovery of soybean meal inventory. The abundant supply has put pressure on soybean meal prices. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean import situation [8] Live Pigs - On August 21, live pig futures prices oscillated weakly. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13765 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.07%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption. High - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig enterprises is low, and the operating level remains low, which has put some pressure on prices. In August, production capacity is being realized intensively, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the monthly slaughter plans of group pig enterprises have increased. Currently, the live pig market is in a situation of abundant supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation trends, pig slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [8] Palm Oil - On August 21, palm oil futures continued to oscillate slightly at a high level. The main contract P2601 closed with a small upper - shadowed negative line, with a high of 9636, a low of 9480, and a closing price of 9500, down 0.57% from the previous day. According to foreign media reports, data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) on Thursday showed that despite increased production and accelerated exports, Indonesia's palm oil inventory at the end of June decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons. As the world's largest palm oil producer and exporter, Indonesia's palm oil exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month surge of 35.4% driven by the soaring demand from major buyers such as China and India. In June, the production of crude palm oil increased by 15.8% month - on - month to 4.82 million tons; the total production (including palm kernel oil) in the first half of this year reached 27.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [9] Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper showed a narrow - range oscillation pattern. Fundamentally, the arrival of domestic refineries has increased, and the supply pattern of electrolytic copper has turned abundant. However, as the seasonal off - season ends, downstream demand is expected to pick up. At the macro level, the expectation of a Fed rate hike in September has decreased, which has supported copper prices. In the short term, Shanghai copper may continue to oscillate in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan. If it breaks through the key resistance level of 79,000 yuan, it may open up an upward space. In the spot market, domestic copper is still being warehoused, and affected by imported low - price goods, the spot premium of Shanghai copper may further decline. However, downstream purchasing sentiment may be strong, and the decline is expected to be limited [10] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan per ton. According to the China Cotton Information Network on August 22, at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouses of the National Cotton Exchange, the lowest basis quotation was 1070 yuan per ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 120 lots compared to the previous day. According to the US weather forecast, the drought area in the US will increase from August to October [10] Iron Ore - On August 21, the 2601 main contract of iron ore oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.98% and a closing price of 772.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore have both increased this period, and port inventory has continued to rise. Molten iron production has increased slightly. However, as environmental protection policies in the north become stricter before the September military parade, there are expectations of a decrease in molten iron production. In the short term, iron ore prices are in an oscillating trend [10] Asphalt - On August 21, the 2510 main contract of asphalt oscillated higher, with a gain of 0.38% and a closing price of 3465 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt has decreased month - on - month this period. Terminal demand is limited by rainfall and funds, and there has been no significant improvement in demand. Without obvious one - way driving factors, asphalt prices will oscillate in the short term [11] Logs - On August 20, the 25091 contract opened at 804, had a low of 803, a high of 812, and closed at 804.5, with a decrease of 825 lots in positions. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820 [11] - On August 21, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that in July, log imports were 2.5 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.7%. The cumulative imports from January to July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in overseas prices has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on prices [13] Steel - On August 21, rb2510 closed at 3121 yuan per ton, and hc2510 closed at 3375 yuan per ton. As steel prices have fallen for several consecutive days, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has increased slightly, and the sales of low - price resources have improved. At the same time, most steel mills in Tangshan have maintenance plans, and it is expected that the supply - demand pressure will ease at the end of August and early September. The market should not be overly bearish. In the short term, steel prices will have limited fluctuations and may oscillate in a narrow range [13] Alumina - On August 21, ao2601 closed at 3124 yuan per ton. Fundamentally, the positive factors in the alumina market have faded. The 10.7% month - on - month increase in bauxite imports in July shows that the supply of imported ore has not been significantly affected by the rainy season. Domestic operating capacity remains high, and the import window opens intermittently. The pattern of oversupply will continue in the second half of the year. The alumina warehouse receipt inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continuously increased to 72,000 tons, alleviating liquidity concerns and dampening bullish sentiment. Alumina is in an oscillating adjustment [14] Shanghai Aluminum - On August 21, al2510 closed at 20590 yuan per ton. In terms of inventory, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is 571,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from last week, and it has been accumulating for five consecutive weeks, but the support from low inventory still exists. In the short term, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum has changed to al2510. It is restricted by demand above and supported by macro - stimulus and low inventory below. It will continue to oscillate. If the electrolytic aluminum inventory accumulates rapidly, aluminum prices may be under pressure [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and intraday trends being oscillatory and strong [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2601 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.96% to 15,755 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic Shanghai rubber futures market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. Southeast Asian producing areas are in the rubber - tapping season, and domestic producing areas are also releasing new rubber output, resulting in high supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has seen a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also affects the market [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the 2510 contract of domestic synthetic rubber futures maintained an oscillatory and strong trend, with the futures price rising significantly by 2.03% to 11,790 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7]. - **Core Logic**: The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is also dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The operating load of domestic synthetic rubber plants is stable, with a slight increase in supply pressure. The domestic tire industry has a decline in inventory, a decrease in operating load, and obstacles in export sales with a slowdown in growth. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut also has an impact [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, A - share major indices oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.12%, and ChiNext Index down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets shrank by 175.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends, affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events [1]. 3. Summary by Variety **Stock Index Futures** - On August 19, the A - share major indices oscillated. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3727.29, down 0.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11821.63, down 0.12%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2601.74, down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2588.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 4223.37, down 16.04 [1]. **Coke and Coking Coal** - Coke: Due to an approaching major event, there is a renewed expectation of production restrictions in coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved, and daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level of downstream hot metal during the off - season, along with the market sentiment on coal over - production inspection, drives the coke price. The coke futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation [2]. - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market is doing well, with rising transaction prices. The terminal inventory remains flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [2]. **Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar)** - Brazil exported 1,883,277.33 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 171,207.03 tons, a 4% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. Affected by the concern of decreased demand, US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Due to the decline of US sugar and the relatively large import volume in July, the short - sellers pressured the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract, which oscillated downward on Tuesday and at night [2]. **Rubber (Hu Jiao)** - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 - 25, and the Southeast Asian spot quotation is firm. The decline in oil prices and the news of tri - lateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude oil. Affected by these factors, Hu Jiao oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the significant increase in inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone last week, Hu Jiao oscillated lower at night. As of August 17, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons (0.50%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons [3][4]. **Palm Oil** - On August 19, palm oil reached a new high, but in the afternoon, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to give back some gains at the end of the session. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji star with an upper shadow, closing at 9640, up 0.58% from the previous day. From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4]. **Soybean Meal** - Internationally, on August 19, CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed lower. The US Department of Agriculture maintained the soybean crop condition rating at 68% in the weekly report, the same as last year and the highest since 2020. Domestically, on August 19, the M2601 main contract closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, oil mills are operating at a high capacity, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Although the Brazilian premium has slightly declined, the high price of US soybeans keeps the domestic import cost high. The expected tightening of supply in the fourth quarter provides support for the soybean meal market. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean imports [5]. **Live Hogs** - On August 19, the live hog futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the high - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig - raising enterprises is low, and the operation level is low, suppressing the price. In August, the production capacity is being realized, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the planned slaughter of group pig - raising enterprises has increased month - on - month. Although the number of secondary fattening has increased, the overall scale is limited. The live hog market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. **Iron Ore** - On August 19, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.64%, closing at 771 yuan. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The hot metal output has slightly increased, but with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September parade, there is an expectation of hot metal production reduction. In the short term, the iron ore price will oscillate [6]. **Asphalt** - On August 19, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.6%, closing at 3453 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the shipment volume continued to decline, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. **Log** - On August 19, the 25091 log contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 807, a high of 816.5, and closed at 810.5, with a daily reduction of 1113 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in July was 2.5 million cubic meters, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative import volume from January - July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in the overseas quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [7]. **Cotton** - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13955 yuan/ton. On August 20, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 166 lots from the previous day. India announced on August 18 that it will fully exempt cotton import tariffs and agricultural surcharges from August 19 to September 30 [7][8]. **Shanghai Copper (Hu Tong)** - Shanghai copper oscillated with a slight decline. On the one hand, the concentrated arrival of imported copper in Shanghai has increased the inventory, and there is still pressure on subsequent shipments, which may lead to a decline in the spot premium and affect the futures price. On the other hand, it is the off - season for copper consumption, and the demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, so the consumption side cannot strongly boost the price. In the long term, the new - energy demand provides some support for the price, and the expected increase in copper mine production but the decline in the global refined copper supply growth rate in 2025 will also affect the price [8]. **Steel** - On August 19, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to decline, and the supply - demand pressure has increased. Considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment is not strong. The raw materials have shown different trends, with coke starting the seventh price increase and Shagang reducing the scrap steel purchase price by 30 yuan/ton. In the short term, the steel price may oscillate weakly [8]. **Alumina** - On August 19, the ao2601 contract closed at 3120 yuan/ton. Recently, the production reduction of some alumina plants has slightly decreased the operating capacity and output. However, the raw material inventory of aluminum plants has reached a historical high, and the提货 willingness has weakened, leading to a slowdown in demand and an increase in inventory. With the expected release of new production capacity, there is still pressure on supply surplus. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of production reduction policies around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei on alumina production. Currently, the market is mixed, with the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory competing with structural shortages, and the alumina price will continue to oscillate [9]. **Shanghai Aluminum (Hu Lu)** - On August 19, the al2510 contract closed at 20545 yuan/ton. The aluminum price maintains a weak range structure, oscillating with low trading volume. The center of the price range is lower, and it oscillates narrowly. Downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. The high inventory of aluminum ingots puts pressure on the spot price. Although there is an expectation of stockpiling before the peak season, the high inventory and weak aluminum price have limited support for the premium [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货橡胶早报-2025-08-19 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，沪胶震荡企稳 | | 合成胶 | 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 多空分歧出现，合成胶震荡企稳 | 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期国内沪胶期货市场处在由供需基本面因素为主导的行情中。目前东南亚产区处在割 胶旺季，国内产区也持续释放新胶产量，供应压力处在偏高水平。不过近日公布的 8 月国内重卡销 量数据和新车产销数据均好于市场预期，呈现同比大幅增长的态势。随着胶市迎来多空分歧阶段， 本周一夜盘国内沪胶期货 2 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on August 18, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market showed strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten-year high since August 2015, the Northbound 50 hit a record high, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index both exceeded their October 8, 2024 highs. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.85% to 3728.03 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73% to 11835.57 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.84% to 2606.20 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2764.2 billion yuan, a significant increase of 519.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4239.41, up 37.06 [1][2] - **Coke and Coking Coal Futures**: Coke weighted index oscillated weakly, closing at 1693.3, down 22.8. Coking coal weighted index was also weak, closing at 1174.0 yuan, down 34.1 [3][4] - **Other Futures**: - Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose due to stable spot prices and capital factors, despite the decline of US sugar on Friday. - Shanghai Rubber oscillated and adjusted due to large short - term gains, technical factors, and the decline of crude oil prices. - Palm Oil 2601 contract closed with a small increase, and the expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased by 34.5% compared to the same period last month. - Shanghai Copper closed slightly down 0.01%, with limited macro - guidance and increased social inventory dragging down the price, but potential restocking demand restricted the decline. - Iron Ore 2601 contract closed down 0.64% at 772 yuan, with supply tightening and high iron - water production leading to a short - term oscillating trend. - Asphalt 2510 contract closed up 0.06% at 3473 yuan, with short - term demand difficult to improve and prices oscillating. - Cotton: Zhengzhou Cotton's night - session main contract closed at 14130 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 87 lots. - Logs: The 25091 contract opened at 817, closed at 811, and decreased by 1105 lots. The spot price in Shandong remained unchanged. - Steel: rb2510 closed at 3155 yuan/ton, hc2510 closed at 3419 yuan/ton. Steel futures may face short - term pressure due to poor fundamental improvement. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 3171 yuan/ton, with supply expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year and prices oscillating. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2510 closed at 20595 yuan/ton. The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affected the price, but the probability of a trend reversal is low [1][5][8] 2. Fundamental Information Coke - The sixth round of price increase has been implemented. The overseas demand for US Treasury bonds is resilient, with foreign investors' holdings reaching a new high in June, while India and Ireland's holdings declined. - Raw material inventory has increased. The current iron - water production is 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the inventory has shifted downstream. The total coking coal inventory is increasing. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 20 yuan/ton [5] Coking Coal - The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1230, equivalent to 1010 on the futures market. - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy report aims to promote a reasonable increase in prices. - The mine - end inventory has increased, and the coking coal inventory has shifted downstream. The cumulative import growth rate has declined for three consecutive months, and the inventory is moderately high [5] Other Commodities - **Soybean Meal**: The supply of imported soybeans is abundant, and the oil - mill operating rate is high, with high inventory. The Brazilian premium has slightly declined, but the high price of US soybeans keeps the import cost high. There is an expected supply shortage in the fourth quarter [7] - **Pig**: It is currently the off - season for pork consumption, with weak terminal demand. The supply of suitable pigs has increased, and the overall situation is one of loose supply and demand [7] - **Palm Oil**: The expected export volume from Malaysia from August 1 - 15 increased significantly compared to the same period last month [8] - **Copper**: The social inventory increased at the beginning of the week, dragging down the price, but the potential restocking demand of downstream processing enterprises restricts the decline [8] - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore decreased last week, and the iron - water production is at a relatively high level, resulting in a short - term oscillating price [8] - **Asphalt**: The capacity utilization rate increased last week, but the shipment volume decreased. The demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is oscillating [9] - **Logs**: The import volume in July decreased year - on - year, and the futures price is affected by the increase in external quotes. The spot trading is weak [10] - **Steel**: The weekly output of five major steel products has increased for three consecutive weeks, the inventory has accumulated faster, and the apparent demand has declined to a new low since early March [11] - **Alumina**: The domestic operating capacity is high, the import window opens intermittently, and the supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year, with inventory increasing [11] - **Aluminum**: The expansion of US tariffs on aluminum derivatives affects China's exports, but the impact is weaker than before. Considering the expected peak season in September and the expected interest - rate cut, the probability of a trend reversal is low [11]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 8 月 14 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（8 月 13 日）A 股三大指数集体上涨，沪指八连阳创 2021 年 12 月以来新高。截止收盘， 沪指涨 0.48%，收报 3683.46 点；深证成指涨 1.76%，收报 11551.36 点；创业板指涨 3.62%，收报 2496.50 点。 沪深两市成交额达到 21509 亿，较昨日大幅放量 2694 亿。 沪深 300 指数 8 月 13 日强势依旧。收盘 4176.58，环比上涨 32.75。 【焦炭 焦煤】8 月 13 日焦炭加权指数遇阻回落，收盘价 1722.2，环比下跌 44.8。 8 月 13 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋弱，收盘价 1226.6 元，环比下跌 37.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：焦炭现货 5 轮提涨全面落地，即期焦化利润小幅修复，后续焦化开工率有望提高。高利润刺激钢厂积 极生产，焦炭现货资源较为紧张，部分钢厂催促焦企发货。钢焦博弈仍在持续，上周五主流焦企开启 6 轮提涨， 钢厂或延缓落地节奏。 焦煤：近期有关矿山超产检查和 276 工作日的消息流出 ...