Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - For RU and NR, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas main production areas like Thailand are still affected by rainfall, keeping overseas raw material prices firm and providing strong cost - side support. Domestic arrivals are slightly recovering, but downstream concentrated purchasing has led to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory. After maintenance, downstream tire开工率 has rebounded, and overall downstream demand is improving seasonally. In the short term, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, there will be pressure for port inventory to rise after downstream stocking ends. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and butadiene inventory is gradually rising, which may cause pressure after downstream restocking ends. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good, with several production facilities having maintenance plans, expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. Downstream tire demand is in a peak season, and the large price difference with natural rubber supports BR prices [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the same period in 2024. In August, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, accounting for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 780 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 880 yuan/ton (-10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,477 yuan/ton (-144.61), the NR basis was 618 yuan/ton (+51); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (-100), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (-10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (-150). - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.63 baht/kg (-0.05), Thai latex was 56.20 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 51.65 baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.55 baht/kg (-0.20). -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+5.57%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+5.69%). - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205), Qingdao port natural rubber inventory was 586,639 tons (-5,636), RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (-10,490), and NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (-605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,629 yuan/ton (unchanged). -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.48% (-2.68%). - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 7,820 tons (-390), and butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 25,900 tons (-400) [5]