1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the cost - side support is strong due to high raw material prices. With increasing arrivals in China and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen. For BR, the upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market To - date News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,320 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,520 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan/ton [2] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,840 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,735 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Market Information - Import: In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [3] - Export: In the first 10 months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%; the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire export volume reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [3] - Global Forecast: ANRPC's September 2025 report predicted that the global natural rubber production in September would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [3] - Thailand Export: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China was 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China was 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China was 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [4] - Automobile Sales: In October 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales of passenger cars were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%. In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (+90), the spread between the RU main contract and the mixed rubber was 700 yuan/ton (- 40), the NR basis was 727 yuan/ton (+25); the whole latex was 14,850 yuan/ton (- 100), the mixed rubber was 14,550 yuan/ton (- 150), the 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,840 US dollars/ton (- 20), the spread between the whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (unchanged); the spread between the mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,650 yuan/ton (- 150) [5][6] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 61.89 Thai baht/kg (+0.84), Thai glue was 57 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [7] -开工率: The full - steel tire operating rate was 62.04% (- 2.25%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 69.36% (- 3.63%) [8] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 452,589 tons (+3,134), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,061,881 tons (+5,524), the RU futures inventory was 108,470 tons (- 10,500), and the NR futures inventory was 49,695 tons (+1,109) [8] 顺丁橡胶 - Spot and Spread: On November 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 120 yuan/ton (+185), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 7,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,700 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private - owned high - cis butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,080 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of high - cis butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,512 yuan/ton (- 2) [9] -开工率: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 72.64% (+2.71%) [10] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,880 tons (- 90), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,630 tons (+780) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. Given the high raw material prices, the cost - side support is strong. With increasing arrivals and lackluster demand, there may be inventory accumulation. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The unilateral trend is unclear. The supply pressure of RU may be less than NR later, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to widen [12] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. Some plants have restarted or postponed maintenance, and some have plans for future maintenance. The upstream production profit has recovered, but due to maintenance, the supply is not expected to increase significantly in the short - term. It mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene [12]

化工日报 | 2025-11-20 天然橡胶社会库存环比继续回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15440元/吨，较前一日变动+145元/吨；NR主力合约12480元/吨，较前一日变动+135 元/吨；BR主力合约10705元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14950元/吨，较前一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前 一日变动+100元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1860美元/吨，较前一日变动+10美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1760美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格10500元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙 江传化BR9000市场价10450元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。 市场资讯 据中国海关总署11月18日公布的数据显示，2025年前10个月中国橡胶轮胎出口量达803万吨，同比增长3.8%；出口 金额为1402亿元，同比增长2.8%。其中，新的充气橡胶轮胎出口量达774万吨，同比增长3.6%；出口金额为1348 亿元，同比增长2.6%。按条数计算，出口量达58,664万条，同比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported, but with the increase in supply later, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later period, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. The supply of BR is expected to be difficult to increase significantly in the short term, and it mainly follows the price of upstream butadiene. The weak situation of butadiene may continue, but the loss of production profit may suppress later output [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,220 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,180 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,430 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,700 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian No. 20 standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: ANRPC predicted that in September 2025, the global natural rubber production would increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption would decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Rubber Imports**: In October 2025, China imported a total of 667,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 1.2% increase compared with the same period in 2024 [2] - **Thailand's Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% [3] - **Passenger - car Market**: In October 2025, the retail sales volume of the national passenger - car market was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month slight decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In September 2025, the sales volume of the EU passenger - car market increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales volume in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the RU basis was - 470 yuan/ton (+25), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 520 yuan/ton (+25), the NR basis was 924.00 yuan/ton (+45.00), etc. [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 60.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai glue was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 52.10 Thai baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.20 Thai baht/kg (+0.10) [5] - **开工率**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [6] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,357 tons (+345), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (-1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+3,931) [6] Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 12, 2025, the BR basis was - 80 yuan/ton (-40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - **开工率**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - RU and NR: Neutral [12] - BR: Cautiously bearish [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - For natural rubber, the supply of raw materials is expected to increase significantly as rainfall decreases in major production areas, which may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Although the cost support is strong, the supply - demand drive is weak. The supply pressure of RU may be less than that of NR in the later stage, which is beneficial for the spread between RU and NR to continue to widen. [12] - For butadiene rubber, the supply is expected to increase this week, while the downstream demand is lackluster and the downstream production is restricted in some areas. The supply - demand situation has weakened, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,110 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,165 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,275 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton. [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,850 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,715 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. [1] Market Information - Heavy - truck market: In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. From January to October, the cumulative sales volume exceeded 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%, and it is expected to exceed 1 million vehicles after November. [2] - Global natural rubber: In September 2025, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons. [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. From January to September, the exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. [3] - China's automobile production and sales: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. [4] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. [4] - EU passenger car market: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles. [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the RU basis was - 510 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 460 yuan/ton (+ 15), the NR basis was 943.00 yuan/ton (+ 15.00). [6] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 59.29 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.34), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40). [7] - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+ 0.77%). [8] - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 449,455 tons (+ 1,787), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+ 17,061), the RU futures inventory was 118,970 tons (- 1,930), and the NR futures inventory was 48,586 tons (+ 3,931). [8] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 10, 2025, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (- 185), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged). [9] - Operating rates: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (- 0.88%). [10] - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (- 160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (- 1,430). [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, the outlook is neutral. The supply of raw materials is expected to increase, but the cost support is strong, and the supply - demand drive is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread between RU01 and RU05. The spread between RU and NR is expected to widen. [12] - For BR, it is cautiously bearish. The supply is expected to increase, the downstream demand is lackluster, and the price is expected to follow the weak trend of butadiene. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, the decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,045 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,130 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,305 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,705 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In October 2025, about 93,000 heavy - trucks were sold in China (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% from September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% from 66,400 in the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks in China exceeded 900,000, reaching 916,000, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million after November [2] Global Natural Rubber - According to the ANRPC September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] China's Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical - grade rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary - form rubber, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheets was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total natural rubber exports to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheets to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] China's Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same historical period, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] China's Rubber - Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber - tire export volume reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume reached 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. In the first three quarters, the export volume of automobile tires was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] EU Passenger - Car Market - In September 2025, the EU passenger - car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 465 yuan/ton (-5), and the NR basis was 838.00 yuan/ton (-131.00). The price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+200), the price of mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+200), and the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (+50). The price of STR20 was 1,830 US dollars/ton (+10). The spread between whole latex and 3L was - 450 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 4,180 yuan/ton (+200) [6] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.75 Thai baht/kg (+0.45), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (-1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+1.40) [7] 开工率 - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.37% (+0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.89% (+0.77%) [8] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,056,012 tons (+17,061), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (-3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On November 6, 2025, the BR basis was - 205 yuan/ton (-70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of butadiene rubber BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 10,200 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,200 yuan/ton (+50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (+100), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,503 yuan/ton (+52) [9] 开工率 - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.02% (-0.88%) [10] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,520 tons (-160), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 25,770 tons (-1,430) [11] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The rubber price mainly fluctuates with the surrounding market atmosphere. The change in the rubber fundamentals may come from the supply side. With the increase in the arrival volume in China, the inventory has started to increase slightly, and it is expected to further increase in the future. However, the raw material prices in overseas main producing areas remain firm due to rainfall disruptions, providing strong cost support for natural rubber and limiting the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand drive is insufficient, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range. - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The decline in the upstream butadiene raw material price since late October in China has turned the production profit of butadiene rubber from loss to profit, partially offsetting the support from the recent concentrated maintenance of upstream butadiene rubber plants. With resilient downstream demand and a relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited. The supply - demand contradiction of butadiene rubber is not prominent, and it mainly fluctuates with the upstream raw materials. In the context of abundant butadiene supply, its weakness is expected to continue [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [12] Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is weak, and with the recent increase in domestic arrivals, rubber prices have been continuously declining. Although the supply in overseas main - producing areas is in the peak season, domestic arrivals are expected to maintain a certain growth rate, and domestic inventories are likely to further increase. However, due to rainfall disturbances in overseas main - producing areas, raw material prices are firm, and the cost - side support for natural rubber is still strong, which may limit the short - term downward space. Currently, the domestic futures price valuation is still low, but the supply - demand driving force is insufficient, and prices mostly follow the surrounding market sentiment [12] - The main factor driving the recent decline in butadiene rubber prices is the drag from the cost side. The price of its upstream raw material, butadiene, has shown a weak trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. Although the production profit of butadiene rubber has improved recently, offsetting some of the support from the concentrated maintenance of upstream devices, with the resilient downstream demand and the relatively low absolute price, the further downward space is expected to be limited [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,875 yuan/ton, a change of - 220 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 11,960 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,205 yuan/ton, a change of - 155 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,400 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, a change of - 10 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,690 US dollars/ton, a change of - 30 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton, a change of + 0 yuan/ton. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton, a change of - 200 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Heavy - truck Market**: In October 2025, the wholesale sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 93,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 12% compared with September and a year - on - year increase of about 40% compared with 66,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to October this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 900,000 vehicles, reaching 916,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 22%. It is expected that after November, the cumulative sales will exceed 1 million vehicles [2] - **Global Natural Rubber**: According to the ANRPC's September 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in September was expected to increase by 5% to 1.433 million tons, a 1% decrease from the previous month; the consumption was expected to decrease by 3.3% to 1.274 million tons, a 1.2% increase from the previous month. In the first three quarters, the cumulative global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 2.3% to 10.374 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 11.422 million tons [2] - **China's Natural Rubber Imports**: In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, the export of standard rubber totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; the export of latex was 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, the total exports of natural rubber to China were 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, the export of standard rubber to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; the export of smoked sheet rubber to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; the export of latex to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. The monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [4] - **China's Rubber Tire Exports**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 5.3491 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [4] - **EU Passenger Car Market**: In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the RU basis was - 425 yuan/ton (+ 70), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 475 yuan/ton (- 20), the NR basis was 941.00 yuan/ton (+ 172.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (- 150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,400 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of 3L spot was 15,000 yuan/ton (- 100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 550 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,700 yuan/ton (- 200) [6] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.00 Thai baht/kg (- 1.00), the price of Thai latex was 56.30 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [7] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [8] - **Inventories**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [8] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On November 4, 2025, the BR basis was - 105 yuan/ton (- 45), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 6,900 yuan/ton (- 300), the quoted price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 10,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 10,150 yuan/ton (- 200), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 9,850 yuan/ton (- 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,443 yuan/ton (- 158) [9] - **Operating Rates**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [10] - **Inventories**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is expected to rebound. The supply - side valuation is low, and the import growth rate has slowed down. Although there are issues such as over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales and the weakness of the real estate market, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. With a relatively low current valuation and the inflection point of inflation and production capacity cycle raising the lower limit, combined with the seasonally strong price period from August to November, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The operating range of RU is expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton, and key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - The real estate market continues to decline and is yet to stabilize. Industrial added - value and social retail data are marginally weakening. Domestically, there is an anti - involution trend. Externally, the Fed's interest rate cut is implemented, which is beneficial for the capital side, but the spill - over effect of a potential US recession should be guarded against [5]. Supply - The long - term cycle shift enhances the valuation, but the supply elasticity is large. The phenological conditions in natural rubber producing areas this year are better than last year. The weak price difference between glue and cup - lump implies that supply is not a major problem. The weather is expected to be good, and the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is acceptable. There is a strong expectation of increased supply in October. However, currently, raw materials are relatively firm, the processing sector is in the red, and the basis is the strongest in the past five years. The global output is expected to increase by 0.5% this year, and China's import volume is expected to increase by about 10%. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is also relatively low compared to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber [5]. Inventory - Exchange RU warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and NR warehouse receipts were once at an extreme low. The de - stocking speed of Qingdao dry rubber inventory is slow, but the latest period shows accelerated de - stocking. Synthetic rubber inventory is at a neutral level. The inventory of all - steel tires in downstream factories is lower than in previous years, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level but is considered neutral considering the expansion of the market scale [5]. Demand - Export rush and replacement of old products have over - drafted demand. There is no expectation of improvement in the real estate market. The large - scale infrastructure project has begun, which is beneficial for the long - term demand of heavy - trucks. Heavy - truck sales have accelerated improvement under the stimulation of replacement policies and environmental protection policies. In September, the year - on - year increase exceeded 80%, and from January to September 2025, the cumulative sales of heavy - trucks increased by about 22% year - on - year. The performance of construction machinery is mediocre. Passenger car sales remain at a historical high but show a downward trend. The operating rate of all - steel tires has improved compared to last year, and the inventory has decreased; the operating rate of semi - steel tires has marginally decreased, and the inventory has remained flat [5]. Strategy - Pay attention to the supply increase during the peak season as the supply - side valuation is low and the import growth rate has slowed down. On the demand side, the weakness of the real estate market is the main line of demand. Although there is over - drafted demand in exports and new car sales, policy dividends continue, heavy - truck sales are growing rapidly, and passenger car sales remain at a high level. It is recommended to buy at low levels, with the RU operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton. Key indicators to observe are the changes in explicit inventory and heavy - truck sales. An arbitrage strategy of going long on RU and short on NR is also suggested [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The demand for winter tires is concentrated, and the tire operating rate continues to rise. The inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased, with the cost - end support for natural rubber remaining strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season. For butadiene rubber, the supply - side support remains, and the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data Raw Materials and Spreads - Thailand's glue is 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.00), cup rubber is 52.40 Thai baht/kg (+1.10), Yunnan's glue is 14,000 yuan/ton (+0), Hainan's glue is 13,600 yuan/ton (+0), RU basis is - 685 yuan/ton (+10), NR basis is 814 yuan/ton (-4), BR basis is - 220 yuan/ton (+0) [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 15,000 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton). The price of Thai 20 - standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,870 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton), and that of Indonesian 20 - standard rubber is 1,760 US dollars/ton (+10 US dollars/ton). The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical is 11,200 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton) [1] Supply - The warehousing rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 5.64% (-1.99%), including 5.53% (-1.97%) for general trade and 6.22% (-2.14%) for bonded warehouses. The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber is 71.71% (-2.12%), and the output is 28,791 tons [1] Production Profit - The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 219.00 yuan/ton (-165.00), and that of Thai RSS3 is 2,544.00 yuan/ton (+70.00). The production profit of butadiene rubber is 48 yuan/ton (+206), and that of butadiene produced by carbon - four extraction method is 1,594.88 yuan/ton (-173.54) [2] Demand - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 65.87% (+1.91%), and that of semi - steel tires is 72.84% (+2%). The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province are 40.34 days (+0.39), and those of semi - steel tires are 45.26 days (+0.09) [2] Inventory - The inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons (-125,451), the social inventory of natural rubber is 1,112,557 tons (-122,953), the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 124,020 tons (-10,980), and the NR futures inventory is 42,640 tons (+2,521). The port inventory of upstream butadiene is 24,600 tons (-6,200), the inventory of butadiene rubber manufacturers is 28,650 tons (+750), and the inventory of butadiene rubber traders is 4,520 tons (-340) [2] 2. Market Analysis - Natural Rubber: Rainfall in major domestic and overseas production areas is expected to decrease. Since early October, China's inventory has decreased due to the slowdown in arrivals and the increase in tire operating rates. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires. With less rain later, focus on the price trend of cup rubber in Thailand. The cost - end support for natural rubber remains strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the peak season [3] - Butadiene Rubber: Many butadiene rubber plants are under maintenance, and more plants have maintenance plans. The supply - side support remains. The demand for winter tires in northern China has boosted the operating rate of steel tires [3] 3. Strategy - RU and NR: Neutral. China's overall supply and demand may show a prosperous pattern. If the arrival volume rebounds, the depletion of social inventory will slow down or accumulate again. Currently, the valuations of RU and NR are low, and the price is expected to move within a range. Pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [4] - BR: Neutral. Supply and demand may improve. The price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to be stable, and the surrounding natural rubber price provides bottom support for butadiene rubber. The price of butadiene rubber is likely to rise, but the high inventory may limit the rebound space. Pay attention to positive spread opportunities between months [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral. The rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is gradually increasing, but the demand remains strong, keeping the spot price firm and the basis in a strong position. The cost - end support for rubber is still strong. With the recovery of downstream开工率 and the resilience of exports, there is a certain rebound momentum in rubber prices. For BR, the supply may decrease due to increased upstream plant maintenance, and with the recovery of downstream demand, the price is likely to rise but the high inventory may limit the rebound space [7] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,245 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,430 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,120 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,550 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information Heavy - Truck Market - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, hitting a new high for the same period in recent years [2] Natural Rubber Imports - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4,717,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] Automobile Production and Sales - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9%. It was the first time in the same period of history that automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] Rubber Tire Exports - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 534.91 million, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the RU basis was - 695 yuan/ton (+5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 345 yuan/ton (- 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 86.00); the price of whole latex was 14,550 yuan/ton (+100), the price of mixed rubber was 14,900 yuan/ton (+100), the price of 3L spot was 15,200 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,500 yuan/ton (+100) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 65.87% (+1.91%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 72.84% (+1.77%) [5] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On October 23, 2025, the BR basis was - 220 yuan/ton (- 70), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,800 yuan/ton (+50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,914 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.45% (- 1.37%) [6] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [7] Core Viewpoints - The domestic supply of natural rubber is on a rising trend, but the current demand remains strong, resulting in firm domestic spot prices and a strong basis pattern. The raw material prices in domestic production areas are decreasing, while in Thailand, the cup rubber price remains firm due to rainfall disturbances, providing strong support for the cost of rubber. The downstream operating rate has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The valuations of domestic RU and NR are currently low, and the implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, potentially leading to a rebound in rubber prices [7] - In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7] Summary by Directory Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,350 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the BR main contract was 11,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,800 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were approximately 105,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high for the same period in recent years [2] - In September 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2] - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. For the first time in the same period in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for five consecutive months [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of pieces, the export volume was 534.91 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The exports of automobile tires in the first three quarters were 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the RU basis was - 700 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 350 yuan/ton (+50), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 2,915 yuan/ton (- 2,915.00), the NR basis was 847.00 yuan/ton (+19.00); the price of whole latex was 14,450 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton (- 50), the price of 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+0). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (+0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 650 yuan/ton (+100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 57.87 Thai baht/kg (- 0.06), the price of Thai glue was 54.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.40), the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.60), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 3.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.20) [4] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.96% (+22.43%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 71.07% (+28.92%) [5] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,112,557 tons (- 122,953.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 461,188 tons (- 125,451), the RU futures inventory was 135,000 tons (- 9,390), and the NR futures inventory was 40,119 tons (- 1,210) [5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On October 22, 2025, the BR basis was - 150 yuan/ton (- 10), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 8,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,200 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,750 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,912 yuan/ton (- 2) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 74.82% (+0.13%) [6] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 4,520 tons (- 340), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 28,650 tons (+750) [6] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The recently announced domestic import data for September continued to increase, slightly exceeding market expectations. The domestic supply is on an upward trend, but the current demand is still good, so the domestic spot prices remain firm, and the basis is strong. The rainfall in domestic production areas has significantly decreased, and with the recovery of raw materials, the domestic raw material prices are continuously decreasing. There will still be rainfall disturbances in Thailand, especially in the northern region. The cup lump price is firm, and the cost - end support for rubber remains strong. The downstream operating rate has rebounded recently, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. Currently, the valuations of domestic RU and NR are low. The implementation of the European EUDR policy is expected to boost overseas raw material procurement demand, and rubber prices may have some rebound momentum [7] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. In late October, there will be an increase in maintenance of domestic upstream butadiene rubber plants, and the decline in supply may support the price of butadiene rubber. The operating rate of downstream tire factories has rebounded, and exports show resilience, with rigid demand support remaining. The supply - demand situation may improve, and the price of upstream butadiene raw materials is expected to remain stable. The surrounding natural rubber prices also provide bottom - end support for butadiene rubber. It is expected that the price of butadiene rubber this week will be more likely to rise than fall. However, the current high inventory of butadiene rubber may limit the upside space [7]