1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU, NR, and BR are all cautiously bullish [11][12] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of natural rubber is not significant in the short - term, with cost - side support and downstream tire demand showing certain resilience. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to continue to narrow [11] - The cost of butadiene for BR has weakened, and the supply is expected to decline. With downstream tire demand having some support, the price of BR is expected to remain relatively strong [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,345 yuan/ton, a change of - 195 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,605 yuan/ton, a change of - 240 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,350 yuan/ton, a change of - 375 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced full - latex in the Shanghai market was 16,250 yuan/ton, a change of - 150 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,015 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a change of - 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 was 19,000 yuan/ton, a change of + 500 yuan/ton; the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua's BR9000 was 17,700 yuan/ton, a change of - 350 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - **Tire Exports**: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export increment to Africa being the most prominent, and the export center continued to shift to emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia [2] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 31.7% and 23.1% respectively, and year - on - year decreases of 20.5% and 15.2% respectively [2] - **Rubber Imports and Exports**: From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [2] - **Thailand's Natural Rubber Production in 2025**: Thailand's natural rubber production was estimated to increase by 0.6% to 4.84 million tons. The harvesting area decreased slightly, but the yield per mu increased by 0.5% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the RU basis was - 95 yuan/ton (+ 45), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 645 yuan/ton (- 95), and the NR basis was 338.00 yuan/ton (+ 96.00) [4] - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 79.55 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.60), the price of Thai glue was 80.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [6] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%). The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+ 5,814), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (- 30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (- 4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On March 31, 2026, the BR basis was 250 yuan/ton (+ 175). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+ 0) [8] - **开工率和库存**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%). The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9][10] Strategy - **RU and NR**: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply pressure is not significant, the cost - side support is strong, and the downstream tire operating rate is rising slightly. NR is expected to perform better, and the spread between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - **BR**: Cautiously bullish. The cost has weakened, the supply is expected to decline, and the price is expected to remain relatively strong [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU, NR, and BR [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, the short - term supply pressure is not significant, raw material prices are rising slightly, and the cost - side support is strong. The downstream tire start - up rate is rising slightly, and the replacement demand will support natural rubber. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - For BR, although the price of butadiene has stagnated due to downstream load reduction, the core influencing factors remain unchanged. Supply is expected to decline, and with the support of raw material prices, the price of BR will remain strong [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 16,540 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,845 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,725 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,800 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 18,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 730,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions were significantly differentiated, with the export to Africa increasing the most, and the export to developed regions being relatively weak [2] - In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Production was 1.672 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%; sales were 1.805 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.2% [2] - From January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% [2] - In January 2026, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; consumption was expected to increase by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The global natural rubber production in 2026 was expected to increase by 2.2% to 15.324 million tons, with different changes in different countries [3] - In the first two months of 2026, Thailand's exports of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber) totaled 450,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15%. Among them, the export of standard rubber was 240,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 83,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%; the export of latex was 123,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and price difference: On March 30, 2026, the RU basis was - 140 yuan/ton (+20), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 740 yuan/ton (-90), the NR basis was 242.00 yuan/ton (+11.00); the price of whole latex was 16,400 yuan/ton (+50), the price of mixed rubber was 15,800 yuan/ton (+120), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (unchanged); the STR20 was quoted at 2,035 US dollars/ton (+15), the price difference between whole latex and 3L was - 400 yuan/ton (+50); the price difference between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was - 2,900 yuan/ton (+120) [5] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheet was 78.95 Thai baht/kg (+0.99), the price of Thai glue was 79.50 Thai baht/kg (+2.00), the price of Thai cup lump was 59.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.75), and the price difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 20.00 Thai baht/kg (+1.25) [6] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+0.03%), and the start - up rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+0.05%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 691,383 tons (+5,814), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (-4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,410 tons (-30), and the NR futures inventory was 43,646 tons (-4,436) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and price difference: On March 30, 2026, the BR basis was 75 yuan/ton (+115), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 18,200 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Transfar was 18,050 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 17,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,831 yuan/ton (+3) [8] - Start - up rate: The start - up rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (-12.39%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (-1,750) [10] Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. The domestic is in the early stage of tapping, and overseas will also start tapping next month. But the short - term supply pressure is not significant, and the cost - side support is strong. The downstream tire start - up rate is rising slightly, and the replacement demand will support natural rubber. NR is expected to perform better, and the price difference between RU and NR is expected to narrow [11] - For BR, be cautiously bullish. Although the price of butadiene has stagnated due to downstream load reduction, the core influencing factors remain unchanged. Supply is expected to decline, and with the support of raw material prices, the price of BR will remain strong [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather conditions, and economic indicators. There are continuous fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, and investment strategies vary according to different market situations [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices of RU主力05合约 fluctuated between 16010 - 17315 points from February 24 to March 27, 2026. The prices of different types of natural rubber such as WF, Vietnam 3L, Thai smoked sheets, and origin standard - two also showed certain ranges of fluctuations [1][20][24] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: NR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12845 - 13865 points during the same period. The prices of related products like smoked sheet rubber cargo, Thai standard near - port cargo, etc. also had corresponding changes [1][20][24] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: BR主力05合约 prices fluctuated between 12590 - 18425 points. The prices of butadiene rubber in different regions such as Shandong and East China also showed varying trends [1][2][20] Important Information - **Export Data**: In the first two months of 2026, Vietnam's natural rubber exports decreased by 11% year - on - year, while mixed rubber exports increased by 20%. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased by 15% in the first two months of 2026, and mixed rubber exports increased by 6% [2][7] - **Industry News**: The Indian natural rubber demand is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026. The global natural rubber market is expected to have a structural shortage for the sixth consecutive year in 2026. The US tire total shipments are expected to increase by 0.7% in 2026 [11][107][70] Logical Analysis - **Economic Indicators**: Factors such as the US auto and parts new order amount, domestic new pneumatic rubber tire export amount, and EuroCoin index have different impacts on the rubber market. For example, in January 2026, the US auto and parts new order amount increased by 13.1% year - on - year, which was positive for commodities [3] - **Inventory and Production**: The inventory levels of RU and NR contracts, as well as the production and inventory of tires, are important factors affecting the market. For example, in March 2026, the total inventory inside and outside Qingdao Bonded Area increased to 68.12 tons, which was positive for Thai standard rubber [7] - **Weather and Other Factors**: Weather conditions such as rainfall in Thailand and the El Nino index also have an impact on the rubber market. For example, from March 2026, the weighted average daily rainfall of Thai natural rubber production decreased to 0.76mm/day, which was negative for Thai standard rubber [7] Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Strategies mainly include holding long positions, short positions, or waiting and seeing. For example, on March 27, 2026, for the RU主力05合约, long positions were held with a stop - loss set at 16220 points [3] - **Arbitrage (Long - Short)**: Strategies mainly involve holding certain spreads and setting stop - loss levels. For example, on March 27, 2026, the spread of NR2605 - RU2605 (1 lot to 1 lot) was - 2815 points and was held with a stop - loss set at - 2865 points [3] - **Options**: Most of the time, the strategy is to wait and see [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly weak" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is -1, indicating a bearish view [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daytime closing price of the rubber main contract decreased by 400 yuan/ton, the night - time closing price decreased by 230 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 40,371 lots, the holding volume of the 05 contract decreased by 5,883 lots, the warehouse receipt quantity increased by 460 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 3,214 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main contract" remained unchanged, the "mixed - futures main contract" increased by 100, and the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 5 [1] - **Spot Market**: The outer - disk quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 all decreased. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene and Qilu cis - butadiene also decreased. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market, such as Thai standard and Thai mixed, decreased [1] Industry News - As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao decreased by 0.28 million tons, a decrease of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory increased by 1.43%, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.81%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 1.56 million tons, a decrease of 1.13% [2][3] - The production enterprises of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires maintained a high - level operation. The downstream purchasing sentiment was improved, but there were still export resistances due to geopolitical factors, and the inventory performance of enterprises showed differences [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "oscillating" [1] - The investment ratings for rubber - related products in the energy and chemical sector are "oscillating" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] Group 2: Core Views - For sugar, the outer - market ICE raw sugar strengthened, and the focus of market trading is the impact of crude oil trends on the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil. The domestic Zhengzhou sugar is in a weak reality pattern, and it may enter an oscillating and consolidating situation. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions [1] - For rubber, natural rubber has supply - side support, with a possible inventory inflection point but slow de - stocking. The overseas geopolitical situation is the most uncertain factor. Synthetic rubber has high - level oscillations due to factors such as raw material prices and overseas situations, and its trend may be volatile [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar (Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector) Market Quotes - SR605 contract closed at 5406 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.21% and 5415 yuan/ton at night; SR609 contract closed at 5436 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 1.18% and 5442 yuan/ton at night [1] - The ICE raw sugar主力 contract was at 14.47 cents/pound with a daily increase of 2.05% [1] Important Information - The spot price of Guangxi white sugar was 5411 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The price ranges of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan and processing sugar factories were adjusted down [1] - As of March 15, the sugar production in major Indian states increased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of March decreased by 25% compared to the average daily exports in March of the previous year [1] - Thailand's sugar - making industry called for the promotion of E20 ethanol gasoline. The number of white sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange remained unchanged [1] Market Logic - Outer - market: The ICE raw sugar strengthened. The impact of crude oil on Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio is the trading focus, and short - term attention is on the support around 14.1 cents/pound [1] - Inner - market: Zhengzhou sugar was weak. After the expected trading ended, the weak reality of domestic white sugar dragged down the price, and it may oscillate [1] Trading Strategy - Take partial profit on long positions. SR605 should focus on the 5350 - 5500 activity range and the support performance at 5400 today [1] Rubber (Energy and Chemical Sector) Market Quotes - As of March 17, the closing prices of RU, NR, and BR主力 contracts decreased by 0.41%, 0.19%, and 0.86% respectively [5] Important Information - The prices of Thai raw material glue, cup rubber, and Yunnan rubber blocks were reported. The inventory in Qingdao decreased by 0.42%, with different changes in bonded and general - trade inventories [5] - The prices of various rubber products such as whole latex, 20 - numbered Thai standard rubber, and 20 - numbered Thai mixed rubber changed. The price of butadiene - styrene rubber decreased, while the price of cis - butadiene rubber was stable [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: It oscillated and declined slightly at night. There is supply - side support, and the inventory inflection point may have come, but the de - stocking is slow. The overseas geopolitical situation is the most uncertain factor, and it is in an upward channel [5] - Synthetic rubber: BR oscillated at a high level. The supply of butadiene has no obvious increase, and the downstream acceptance is limited. Due to high raw material prices, some suppliers reduced production. The war situation makes the trend volatile [5] Trading Strategy - Long positions in RU and NR should focus on the support at the lower edge of the channel; long positions in BR can consider partial profit - taking [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main risk for rubber lies in the potential hindrance to downstream tire exports due to the interpretation differences of the impact of the US - Iran conflict. Chinese tire exports to the Middle East account for about 22% of total exports. In the short term, export volume and price are under pressure, with some orders delayed or cancelled. In the medium term, if the conflict persists, the proportion may decline temporarily, and enterprises will turn to markets in Africa and Latin America to diversify risks [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. In terms of supply - demand fundamentals, rubber producing areas are gradually entering the off - season, with raw material prices firming. Downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand, sufficient supply, and increasing finished - product inventory. The spot inventory of natural rubber continues to accumulate seasonally, putting pressure on spot prices. However, in the long - term, as production peaks, the pattern of oversupply is expected to gradually improve, and the market has reached a consensus that the center of rubber prices will move up [3]. - It is recommended to hold off on trading domestic natural rubber for the time being and avoid chasing high prices. For single - sided long positions in rubber, partial profit - taking can be done when the price breaks through. The support level for the RU main contract is 15700 - 15900, and the pressure level is 16500 - 17000; for the NR main contract, the support level is 13300 - 13500, and the pressure level is 13820 - 14000 [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - For rubber, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips. The main logic is that macro sentiment and overseas raw materials form a short - term resonance. The support range is 16000 - 16900, the pressure range is 17100 - 17500, and the market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [9]. - For 20 - number rubber, the recommended strategy is also to buy on dips. The main logic is that dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory inflection point, but the price of Thai glue is firm, providing strong support at the bottom. The support range is 13400 - 13600, the pressure range is 13900 - 14200, and the market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review - The closing price of the rubber main - continuous contract is 16740, with a daily decline of 2.39% or 410, a trading volume of 370025, and an open interest of 152591. - The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main - continuous contract is 13535, with a daily decline of 2.13% or 295, a trading volume of 81471, and an open interest of 63605. - The closing price of the Singapore TSR20 main - continuous contract is 199, with a daily decline of 2.26% or 5, a trading volume of 280, and an open interest of 25143 [9]. 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - number rubber is 50601, with a year - on - year change of 2.66%. Warehouse receipts have rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 115070, with a year - on - year change of - 41.19%. Warehouse receipts were significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory has dropped sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts has increased, which supports the RU futures price [14]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural rubber (yuan/ton) | 16867 | - 109 | - 313 | | Yunnan glue (yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai glue (baht/kg) | 69 | 1 | - 2 | | Thai Hat Yai cup lump (baht/kg) | 58 | 1 | - 4 | | Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2035 | - 30 | - 135 | [19] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU main contract basis | Basis | 32 | 252 | 607 | | NR main contract basis | Basis | 2000 | 120 | 650 | | Thai mixed - RU | Non - standard basis | - 875 | 515 | - 440 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard basis | 165 | 160 | 220 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety spread | 3205 | - 130 | 1020 | | Whole milk - Thai mixed | Light - dark colored rubber spread | 415 | - 280 | 235 | [24] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 125 | - 5 | 300 | Range - bound oscillation | Wait and see | | 20 - number rubber | 3 - 4 | - 135 | - 70 | - 410 | Range - bound oscillation | Wait and see | [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,740 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 16,695 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The trading volume was 370,025 lots, down 88,448 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 152,591 lots, down 7,755 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 115,070 tons, and the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 1,221 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of "spot - futures main" was - 140 yuan, down 5 yuan; the basis of "mixed - futures main" was - 1,090 yuan, up 15 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 125 yuan, down 5 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,450 dollars/ton, down 10 dollars; STR20 was 2,040 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars; SMR20 was 2,030 dollars/ton, down 20 dollars; SIR20 was 1,970 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars. The prices of Qilu butadiene - styrene rubber and Qilu cis - butadiene rubber increased by 100 yuan/ton and 350 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market generally decreased [1]. 3.2 Industry News - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 67.99 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons, or 1.82%. The bonded area inventory increased by 6.52%, and the general trade inventory increased by 0.89%. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, or 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 1.32%, and that of light - colored rubber increased by 1% [2][3]. - In March, semi - steel tire foreign trade orders were sufficient, but geopolitical factors increased the shipping resistance in the Middle East and other regions. The domestic sales were in the post - holiday replenishment stage, with insufficient inventory and low order fulfillment rate, and the production - sales differentiation intensified [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The rubber trend intensity is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU, NR, and BR [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas natural rubber supply has entered the seasonal off - season, which may continue to drive up overseas raw material prices, and the cost - side support for rubber remains strong. Although domestic tire factories will gradually resume work and the operating rate will pick up, the terminal domestic sales are still in the off - season. Rubbers prices are expected to remain strong, but the large domestic arrivals will lead to a short - term inventory build - up in China [11] - For BR, the supply is abundant due to fewer upstream maintenance devices and increased production loads in some private plants in North China. With the resumption of work in domestic tire factories, demand will improve month - on - month. BR is in a situation of both supply and demand growth, and cost - side support remains due to stable upstream butadiene prices [11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 17,240 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,045 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 17,050 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 16,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,070 US dollars/ton, up 15 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,035 US dollars/ton, up 40 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information - In January 2026, Thailand exported 214,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year decrease of 10%. Exports to China were 77,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [2] - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work in domestic tire enterprises was generally stable, with semi - steel tire orders performing better than all - steel tires. The inventory replenishment after the festival drove the rapid recovery of the operating rate, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to increase in March. However, rising raw material costs have squeezed profits, and tire enterprises still face cost pressure [2] - In January 2026, EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles, marking a challenging start for the second consecutive year [2] - In 2025, the United States imported a total of 286.15 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. Imports from China decreased by 15% to 21.06 million tires, while imports from Thailand increased by 10% to 73.51 million tires [3] - In 2025, Vietnam exported 719,000 tons of natural rubber, a year - on - year decrease of 10%. Exports to China were 265,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5% [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 25, 2026, the RU basis was - 190 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+60), the NR basis was 369.00 yuan/ton (- 101.00); whole latex was 17,050 yuan/ton (+250), mixed rubber was 16,000 yuan/ton (+150), 3L spot was 17,300 yuan/ton (+100). The STR20 was quoted at 2,070 US dollars/ton (+15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+150); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,800 yuan/ton (- 50) [5] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheets were 71.17 Thai baht/kg (+2.38), Thai latex was 67.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), Thai cup lump was 56.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 10.80 Thai baht/kg (unchanged) [6] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 12.37% (- 28.18%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 12.20% (- 44.20%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 667,720 tons (+60,963), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,366,518 tons (+69,963), the RU futures inventory was 112,570 tons (+500), and the NR futures inventory was 50,803 tons (- 201) [7] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On February 25, 2026, the BR basis was - 345 yuan/ton (+95), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 10,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,300 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,816 yuan/ton (- 49) [8] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 82.03% (+2.40%) [9] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 8,320 tons (+2,210), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 45,150 tons (+17,350) [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the rubber industry is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rubber main contract (05 contract) increased both during the day and at night. The trading volume, open interest increased, while the net short position of the top 20 members decreased. The warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged. The day - closing price was 17,240 yuan/ton (up 210 yuan from the previous day), the night - closing price was 17,315 yuan/ton (up 135 yuan), the trading volume was 272,777 lots (up 26,815 lots), the open interest was 175,091 lots (up 13,023 lots), the net short position of the top 20 members was 22,664 lots (down 2,021 lots), and the warehouse receipt quantity was 112,570 tons [1] - **Spread Data**: The spot - futures spread increased by 40, the mixed - futures spread decreased by 60, and the RU05 - RU09 spread decreased by 70 [1] - **Spot Market**: Most of the external quotes of rubber increased. RSS3 increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2,440 dollars/ton, STR20 increased by 20 dollars/ton to 2,100 dollars/ton, SMR20 increased by 20 dollars/ton to 2,090 dollars/ton, SIR20 increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2,020 dollars/ton. The prices of substitutes such as Qilu butadiene styrene decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 13,150 yuan/ton, and Qilu cis - butadiene remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. The prices of imported rubber in the Qingdao market also increased, with the price of Thai standard and Thai mixed increasing by 65 dollars/ton, and the price of African 10 increasing by 85 dollars/ton [1] Industry News - After the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises resumed work as planned. For semi - steel tire enterprises, some did not stop production during the festival, and most resumed work from the fifth to the seventh day of the first lunar month. For all - steel tire enterprises, over 90% resumed work as planned, mainly from the fifth to the eighth day of the first lunar month, with a few enterprises delaying by 2 - 3 days. Currently, some enterprises are still affected by labor shortages, which restricts the increase in overall production [2][3] - In February, the order performance of semi - steel tire enterprises was better than that of all - steel tire enterprises. Some enterprises received more orders than expected, and the concentrated stocking in the domestic market after the festival supported the rapid recovery of production. Most agents returned to the market from the sixth to the eighth day of the first lunar month, and the order volume was better than the same period last year. As the market recovers, trading will gradually improve [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the rubber industry is "shockingly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The trend strength of rubber is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The daily closing price of the rubber main contract was 17,030 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan from the previous day; the night - closing price was 17,180 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 245,962 lots, an increase of 80,492 lots; the open interest was 162,068 lots, an increase of 21,833 lots. The net short position of the top 20 members was 24,685 lots, an increase of 2,286 lots [1] - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract was - 230 yuan, a decrease of 65 yuan; the basis of mixed - futures main contract was - 1,180 yuan, a decrease of 185 yuan. The month - spread of RU05 - RU09 was 200 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan. The RSS3 outer - market quotation was 2,400 US dollars/ton, STR20 was 2,080 US dollars/ton (up 85 US dollars), SMR20 was 2,070 US dollars/ton (up 85 US dollars), and SIR20 was 1,980 US dollars/ton (up 75 US dollars) [1] - **Substitutes**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber was 13,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan; the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber was 12,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: In the Qingdao market, the price of Thai standard rubber was 1,965 - 1,970 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars), and the price of Thai mixed rubber was 1,965 - 1,970 US dollars/ton (down 10 US dollars). The price of African 10 rubber was 1,890 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of February 23, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 667,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 61,000 tons, an increase of 10.05%. The bonded area inventory was 110,800 tons, an increase of 12%; the general trade inventory was 556,900 tons, an increase of 9.67%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 6.8 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.38 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.65 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 4.36 percentage points [2][3] - Most enterprises resumed work as planned, mostly on the sixth and eighth days of the first lunar month. Some early - starting enterprises have basically returned to a high - level operation. Most production facilities are in the process of gradual recovery, and the overall start - up rate is affected by the fact that some non - local employees have not arrived. After the Spring Festival, shipments have gradually resumed, and some enterprises are out of stock [3]