化工日报 | 2025-12-25 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+300元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14780元/吨，较前 一日变动+260元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1865美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶 1785美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11100元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价10950元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月下降1.5%；天胶消费量 料降1.4%至124.8万吨，较上月下降0.9%。前11个月，全球天胶累计产量料增2%至1337.5万吨，累计消费量料降1.7% 至1393.2万吨。 据隆众资讯了解，目前半钢四季胎市场货 ...

橡胶周度报告 衡飞池 从业资格号：F03122956 投资咨询号：Z0022861 中航期货 2025-12-05 目录 01 报告摘要 03 数据分析 02 多空焦点 04 后市研判 | | | 1. 2025年12月3日-12月9日期间，天然橡胶东南亚主产区降雨量较上一周期小幅增加，赤道以北高降水区域主要集中在 越南北部、泰国南部等地区，其余大部分区域降水处于偏低状态，对割胶工作影响增强；赤道以南高降水区域主要分 布在印尼中西部、马来西部等地区，其他大部分区域降雨量处于中等状态，对割胶工作影响增强。 本周天然橡胶维持震荡偏弱态势，交易重心有小幅下移，合成橡胶周二受原料端影响，出现明显上涨，但之后随着需求端 提振有限，跟随整体橡胶板块走弱。从天然橡胶基本面看，国内外的天然橡胶原料市场呈现分化走势，海外主产区随着洪 水消退，割胶与生产活动恢复，原料供应增加导致价格出现回落，海外端成本支撑偏弱；而国内产区目前逐步进入停割期， 市场供应收紧，原料价格因此表现坚挺，国内端橡胶成本端仍存支撑。但下游需求有限，仍未改变天然橡胶总库存缓慢累 积的趋势。从合成橡胶基本面看，原料丁二烯受部分货源出口成交带动，市场在周中一度迎 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - For RU and NR, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas main production areas like Thailand are still affected by rainfall, keeping overseas raw material prices firm and providing strong cost - side support. Domestic arrivals are slightly recovering, but downstream concentrated purchasing has led to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory. After maintenance, downstream tire开工率 has rebounded, and overall downstream demand is improving seasonally. In the short term, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, there will be pressure for port inventory to rise after downstream stocking ends. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and butadiene inventory is gradually rising, which may cause pressure after downstream restocking ends. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good, with several production facilities having maintenance plans, expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. Downstream tire demand is in a peak season, and the large price difference with natural rubber supports BR prices [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the same period in 2024. In August, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, accounting for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 780 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 880 yuan/ton (-10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,477 yuan/ton (-144.61), the NR basis was 618 yuan/ton (+51); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (-100), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (-10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (-150). - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.63 baht/kg (-0.05), Thai latex was 56.20 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 51.65 baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.55 baht/kg (-0.20). -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+5.57%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+5.69%). - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205), Qingdao port natural rubber inventory was 586,639 tons (-5,636), RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (-10,490), and NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (-605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,629 yuan/ton (unchanged). -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.48% (-2.68%). - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 7,820 tons (-390), and butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 25,900 tons (-400) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]