合成橡胶产业日报 2026-01-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 13265 | 335 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 91654 | -35722 | | | 合成橡胶3-4价差(日,元/吨) | 40 | 70 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 8720 | 600 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 12700 | 850 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 12700 | 850 | | | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 12700 | 东(日,元/吨) 800 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 12700 | 750 | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | -265 | -35 东(日,元/吨) | | | | | 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) 东北 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for RU and NR is neutral [11] - The rating for BR is neutral [11] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the domestic supply is increasing slowly, with continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society. Although the cost - end support is strong, the supply is likely to recover, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, making it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise [11] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply will remain abundant, the downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. However, the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,650 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was at 12,615 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was at 11,395 yuan/ton, up 220 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan/ton; the price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,785 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] Market Information Import Volume - In November 2025, China's natural rubber (including technically specified rubber, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) import volume was 643,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25.98% and a year - on - year increase of 14.69%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.8716 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 16.98% [2] Global Production and Consumption - According to the ANRPC's November 2025 report, the global natural rubber production in November was expected to drop 2.6% to 147,400 tons, a 1.5% drop from the previous month; the consumption was expected to drop 1.4% to 124,800 tons, a 0.9% drop from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the global cumulative natural rubber production was expected to increase 2% to 1.3375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption was expected to drop 1.7% to 1.3932 million tons [2] Tire Market - The supply of semi - steel all - season tires was relatively sufficient, and the market was mainly digesting previous inventories with a slower shipment pace. There was a shortage of some specifications, but weak demand suppressed the market's purchasing sentiment. The supply of semi - steel snow tires in the distribution channels was sufficient, and it was in the terminal inventory - reduction stage, waiting for more snowfall to release replacement demand. Overall, the market transactions were dull, and prices were weak [2] Heavy - Truck Sales - In November 2025, heavy - truck sales reached 113,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 65%, achieving an "8 - consecutive - month year - on - year increase" and setting the highest monthly sales volume in the heavy - truck market this year [3] Automobile Production and Sales - In November, China's automobile production and sales were 3.532 million and 3.429 million units respectively, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and 3.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.8% and 3.4%. The monthly production exceeded 3.5 million units for the first time, setting a new record [4] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the RU basis was - 400 yuan/ton (- 60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 870 yuan/ton (+ 100), the NR basis was 528.00 yuan/ton (- 78.00); the price of whole latex was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 300), the price of mixed rubber was 14,780 yuan/ton (+ 260), the price of 3L spot was 15,500 yuan/ton (+ 200). The STR20 was quoted at 1,865 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 250 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,480 yuan/ton (+ 160) [5] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheets was 58.22 Thai baht/kg (- 0.03), the price of Thai latex was 55.20 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 50.80 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.40 Thai baht/kg (- 0.50) [6] Operating Rate - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.61% (- 0.94%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 70.01% (- 0.13%) [7] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 515,227 tons (+ 16,339), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 1,182,245 tons (+ 29,327), the RU futures inventory was 87,160 tons (+ 30,170), and the NR futures inventory was 58,968 tons (- 605) [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On December 24, 2025, the BR basis was - 445 yuan/ton (- 170), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,800 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 10,950 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,630 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,303 yuan/ton (+ 14) [8] Operating Rate - The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26% (+ 5.58%) [9] Inventory - The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among traders was 5,690 tons (- 720), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber among enterprises was 28,850 tons (+ 1,250) [10] Strategy Natural Rubber (RU and NR) - With the domestic Hainan production area approaching the end of the tapping season, the supply increase is slow. Although the far - month price of blended rubber has strengthened, the near - month price is average, and the basis is weakly stable. The continuous inventory accumulation at ports and in society, combined with the off - season of downstream demand, makes it difficult for the factory's operating rate to rise. The cost - end support is strong, but the supply is likely to recover [11] Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - With less upstream maintenance, the supply of cis - butadiene rubber will remain abundant. Downstream tire demand is weak, and the operating rate of tire factories may decline. The self - supply - and - demand situation of cis - butadiene rubber remains weak, but the upstream raw material cost support may continue [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - From Dec 3 - 9, 2025, rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared to the previous period, affecting rubber tapping. The rubber market maintained a weak and volatile trend this week. There was a divergence in the raw material markets at home and abroad. Overseas raw material prices declined due to increased supply, while domestic prices were firm as the domestic producing areas entered the suspension period. However, limited downstream demand led to a slow accumulation of total natural rubber inventory. The synthetic rubber market also lacked strong support. Overall, the rubber market lacked prominent contradictions and was mainly volatile. Attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the widening price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [6][25]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Differentiated prices of domestic and foreign natural rubber raw materials**: On Dec 4, the glue price in Thailand was 55.5 Thai baht/kg, while in Yunnan and Hainan in China, it was 13,900 yuan/ton and 13,100 yuan/ton respectively. Overseas raw material prices fell due to increased supply after floods receded, while domestic prices were firm as supply tightened [11]. - **Slight accumulation of natural rubber inventory**: As of Nov 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.102 million tons, a 2.1% increase. The inventory in Qingdao bonded area and general trade also increased. The inbound and outbound rates of warehouses changed [14]. - **Weak operation of butadiene price and stable production profit of enterprises**: This week, the domestic butadiene market first rose and then fell, remaining in a volatile range. The price increase was short - lived due to loose supply and limited downstream acceptance. As of Dec 4, the prices in Shandong and East China were within certain ranges. As of Dec 5, the theoretical production profit of cis - polybutadiene rubber was 672.7143 yuan/ton, remaining stable [15]. - **Poor inventory clearance of cis - polybutadiene rubber in factories**: As of Dec 5, 2025, the weekly output of high - cis cis - polybutadiene rubber enterprises in China was 29,524 tons, a 1,341 - ton increase. Factory inventory increased by 200 tons, while trader inventory decreased by 310 tons. High production but weak downstream trading led to poor inventory clearance [18]. - **Weak and stable overall tire production capacity utilization rate**: As of the week of Dec 5, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a 1.25% increase, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a 2.33% increase. The inventory days of sample enterprises changed. Although some enterprises resumed production after maintenance, the overall production capacity utilization rate did not return to normal levels due to sales pressure and new maintenance arrangements [19]. - **Differentiated price difference trends of the three rubber contracts on the disk**: As of Dec 4, the price difference of the "RU - NR" January contract fluctuated, and the price difference of the "NR - BR" main contract converged as synthetic rubber was stronger than natural rubber during the week due to butadiene exports [21]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: The raw material price of natural rubber in domestic producing areas has support [10]. - **Bearish factors**: The inventory clearance of natural rubber is poor, with a slight accumulation; the production of cis - polybutadiene rubber is at a high level, and the inventory clearance in factories is poor; the raw material price support of natural rubber in overseas producing areas is weak [10]. 3.3后市研判 - The natural rubber market has a supply - cost divergence at home and abroad, and limited downstream demand leads to inventory accumulation. The synthetic rubber market lacks strong cost support. Overall, the rubber market is mainly volatile, and attention should be paid to the impact of raw material price changes on the price difference between natural and synthetic rubber [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. Looking ahead, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. Overall, considering the weakening of the macro - and fundamental aspects and the seasonal inventory accumulation, it is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term [8][86][87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber futures fluctuated between 14,740 - 15,170 yuan/ton, first declining and then rising, with an overall slight decline. As of the close on November 7, 2025, it closed at 14,995 yuan/ton, down 90 points or 0.6% for the week [14]. 现货价格 - As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,550 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoked sheets (RSS3) was 18,400 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton. The arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,030 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton from last week [19][23]. Basis and Spread - Taking the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly last week. As of November 7, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 445 yuan/ton, narrowing 155 yuan/ton from last week [26]. Important Market Information - The US federal government's "shutdown" from October 1 to November 6 has broken the historical record, which may reduce the fourth - quarter economic growth rate by up to 2 percentage points. The increase in US ADP employment in October has added uncertainty to the Fed's December interest - rate cut. There are also mixed signals in the US employment situation, with different data showing different trends. The Fed's internal differences on interest - rate cuts are intensifying. High - frequency economic data such as the US ISM service and manufacturing PMIs have different performances. In addition, there are developments in Sino - US economic and trade relations, and the performance of the new energy vehicle and traditional vehicle markets in China is also reported [30][31][33]. Supply - Side Situation - As of September 30, 2025, among the main natural rubber - producing countries, Thailand's production decreased slightly, Indonesia's decreased slightly, Malaysia's increased slightly, India's increased slightly, Vietnam's decreased slightly, and China's increased slightly. The total production in September 2025 was 1.0353 million tons, an increase of 48,300 tons or 4.89% from the previous month, with the growth rate continuing to decline slightly. The monthly production of synthetic rubber in China in September 2025 was 774,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.5%, and the cumulative production was 6.616 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.2%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China in September 2025 was 10,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.98% [39][44][48]. Demand - Side Situation - As of November 6, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire and all - steel tire enterprises increased slightly compared with last week. As of September 30, 2025, China's monthly automobile production and sales increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly sales of heavy trucks increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, the monthly production of tire casings increased slightly year - on - year, and the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires decreased month - on - month. With the weather getting colder, there is an expectation of weakening demand [55][59][62]. Inventory - Side Situation - As of November 7, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 118,970 tons, down 1,930 tons from last week. As of November 2, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber was 1.056 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17,000 tons or 1.6%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber increased by 3%, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 0.4%. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 447,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15,400 tons or 3.57%, with the bonded area inventory decreasing by 0.58% and the general trade inventory increasing by 4.36% [83]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: The global natural rubber production areas are in the peak supply season. The raw material prices in Yunnan are basically stable, and the rainfall in Hainan has limited improvement, affecting the tapping volume. The downstream factory procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the raw material prices are weakly stable. In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative imports from January to October increased significantly year - on - year. - Demand side: The operating rate of tire enterprises increased slightly last week. The overall inventory fluctuated slightly, with semi - steel tires continuously accumulating inventory and all - steel tires turning to inventory accumulation again. With the weather getting colder, the demand for all - steel tire replacement markets will weaken further, and the demand for semi - steel tires will also slow down. The automobile production and sales in September increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year. The tire export volume in September decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year, and the cumulative export volume from January to September increased year - on - year. - Inventory side: The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week, while China's social inventory of natural rubber and the total inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, with a relatively large increase in the general trade inventory in Qingdao [84][85]. 后市展望 - The price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures declined slightly last week. In the future, the macro sentiment has weakened, the supply side has certain support, the terminal consumption performance is acceptable, but there is an expectation of weakening demand. The inventory in Qingdao's general trade has accumulated more than expected, which also exerts pressure on rubber prices. It is expected that the futures market will fluctuate weakly in the short term. Key factors to be followed include Sino - US trade relations, the progress of anti - dumping policies in Europe and the US, weather disturbances and raw material output in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, and the progress of zero - tariff policies [86][87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will fluctuate weakly in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, use an interval - trading approach, and aggressive traders can consider buying on dips. For arbitrage and options trading, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [88][89].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral; BR is rated neutral [6] Core View of the Report - For RU and NR, in the next one to two weeks, domestic rainfall is expected to decrease, but overseas main production areas like Thailand are still affected by rainfall, keeping overseas raw material prices firm and providing strong cost - side support. Domestic arrivals are slightly recovering, but downstream concentrated purchasing has led to a significant reduction in Qingdao port inventory. After maintenance, downstream tire开工率 has rebounded, and overall downstream demand is improving seasonally. In the short term, there may still be a slight reduction in inventory, and rubber prices are expected to remain firm. However, there will be pressure for port inventory to rise after downstream stocking ends. - For BR, there are concerns about cost - side drag recently. The weakening of crude oil prices may lead to an adjustment in butadiene prices, and butadiene inventory is gradually rising, which may cause pressure after downstream restocking ends. However, the fundamentals of BR itself are still good, with several production facilities having maintenance plans, expected to lead to a phased decline in supply. Downstream tire demand is in a peak season, and the large price difference with natural rubber supports BR prices [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,880 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,590 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,590 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,860 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,780 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] Market Information - Import: In August 2025, China imported 664,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 7.8% increase from the same period in 2024. From January to August, the total import was 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase. - Export: In the first eight months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 1.05 million tons, a 14.4% increase from the same period in 2024. In August, exports increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month. - Heavy - truck sales: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 1% month - on - month decrease and a 35% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative sales were about 708,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase. - Automobile production and sales: From January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles respectively, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. New energy vehicle production and sales were 9.625 million and 9.62 million vehicles respectively, a 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year increase, accounting for 45.5% of total new vehicle sales. In terms of exports, 4.292 million vehicles were exported, a 13.7% year - on - year increase, including 1.532 million new energy vehicles, an 87.3% year - on - year increase [2][3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the RU basis was - 780 yuan/ton (+60), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 880 yuan/ton (-10), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,477 yuan/ton (-144.61), the NR basis was 618 yuan/ton (+51); whole latex was 15,100 yuan/ton (-100), mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton (-150), 3L spot was 15,300 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,860 US dollars/ton (-10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 200 yuan/ton (-50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,700 yuan/ton (-150). - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.63 baht/kg (-0.05), Thai latex was 56.20 baht/kg (unchanged), Thai cup lump was 51.65 baht/kg (+0.20), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.55 baht/kg (-0.20). -开工率: The开工率 of all - steel tires was 66.31% (+5.57%), and that of semi - steel tires was 72.61% (+5.69%). - Inventory: Natural rubber social inventory was 1,235,510 tons (-22,205), Qingdao port natural rubber inventory was 586,639 tons (-5,636), RU futures inventory was 151,740 tons (-10,490), and NR futures inventory was 45,964 tons (-605) [4][5] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 17, 2025, the BR basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+85), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,250 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,550 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,629 yuan/ton (unchanged). -开工率: The开工率 of high - cis butadiene rubber was 73.48% (-2.68%). - Inventory: Butadiene rubber trader inventory was 7,820 tons (-390), and butadiene rubber enterprise inventory was 25,900 tons (-400) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, with domestic Qingdao port and social inventories showing a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the upcoming downstream traditional peak season [8] - For cis - butadiene rubber, the supply - demand situation may improve slightly, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day's close, the RU main contract was at 15,885 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton), the NR main contract was at 12,715 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton), and the BR main contract was at 11,885 yuan/ton (+65 yuan/ton) [1] - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton (+0 yuan/ton), the price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,900 yuan/ton (+20 yuan/ton), etc. [1] Market Information - Global natural rubber: In July 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to slightly decrease by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, and consumption was expected to drop by 4.1% to 1.246 million tons. In the first 7 months, cumulative production was expected to increase by 0.1% to 7.477 million tons, and cumulative consumption was expected to decrease by 0.6% to 8.888 million tons [2] - China's heavy - truck market: In August 2025, the sales volume was about 84,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was about 708,000 units, a year - on - year increase of about 13% [2] - Thailand's natural rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.586 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. Exports to China totaled 622,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7% [2] - China's natural rubber imports: In July 2025, the import volume was 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [3] - Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024 [3] - China's rubber tire exports: In the first 7 months of 2025, the export volume was 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 885 yuan/ton (-15), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 985 yuan/ton (-5), etc. [4] - Raw materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.29 baht/kg (+0.31), the price of Thai glue was 55.60 baht/kg (+0), and the price of Thai cup lump was 51.30 baht/kg (+0.10) [5] -开工率：The full - steel tire operating rate was 64.89% (-0.08%), and the semi - steel tire operating rate was 70.97% (-0.90%) [7] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,264,898 tons (-5,911 tons), the inventory at Qingdao Port was 602,295 tons (-3,908 tons), etc. [7] Cis - Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On September 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 135 yuan/ton (-65), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,500 yuan/ton (+0), etc. [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 75.85% (+6.70%) [7] - Inventory: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 7,260 tons (+640 tons), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 24,650 tons (-450 tons) [7] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The cost - end support for natural rubber may continue, and attention should be paid to the raw material procurement willingness of factories during the downstream traditional peak season [8] - For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The supply - demand situation may slightly improve, and the inventory is expected to remain stable. The cost - end support for cis - butadiene rubber still exists [8]