1. Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [4] - BR is rated neutral [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production and sales of automobiles in China continued to grow in April 2025, with new energy vehicles showing significant growth. The supply - demand situation of natural rubber and butadiene rubber is expected to improve slightly, and prices are expected to be supported, but the upside is limited by supply increases [1][2][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On May 20, 2025, the closing price of the RU main contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,915 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. In the spot market, prices of various types of rubber had different changes [1] - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In April 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.9% and 11.2%, but a year - on - year increase of 8.9% and 9.8%. From January to April 2025, automobile production and sales were 10.175 million and 10.06 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 12.9% and 10.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales continued to increase both year - on - year and month - on - month [1] - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In April 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 43.8% and 44.2%. From January to April, the cumulative sales of new energy passenger cars were 1.216 million and 1.066 million respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 30.3% and 18.3% [2] Market Analysis - **Natural Rubber** - **Spot and Spread**: On May 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 40 yuan/ton (+15), and various spreads and import profits had different changes. The prices of different types of natural rubber also fluctuated [3] - **Raw Materials**: The prices of Thai raw materials such as smoked sheets, glue, and cup rubber changed. The difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 8.75 baht/kg (+0.40) [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.88% (+18.19%), and that of semi - steel tires was 71.21% (+24.50%) [3] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,355,527 tons (+613), and inventories at Qingdao Port and in futures markets also had different changes [3] - **Butadiene Rubber** - **Spot and Spread**: On May 20, 2025, the BR basis was 130 yuan/ton (+70), and prices and spreads of butadiene rubber and its raw materials changed [3] - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 79.20% (+4.46%) [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,470 tons (-430), and the enterprise inventory was 26,650 tons (-1,000) [3] Strategy - **RU and NR**: Currently, the Thai main production area is in the early stage of tapping, and rainfall restricts raw material output. The cost of natural rubber is strongly supported. Although the domestic basis has weakened slightly, the downstream tire operating rate is expected to improve, and the overall supply - demand situation is expected to improve slightly. Prices are expected to be strong, but the upside is limited by supply increases [4] - **BR**: Yanshan Petrochemical's 120,000 - ton high - cis butadiene rubber production capacity will be shut down for maintenance in late May. The continuous loss of production profit has led to reduced production of private enterprises. Supply pressure is small, and downstream tire operating rates are expected to improve. The supply - demand situation will improve slightly, and prices are supported, but attention should be paid to the price of upstream butadiene [5]