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欧线航数脉搏2025W35
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 11:07
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the European Line shipping market, covering aspects such as loading rates, ship capacity, schedules, delays, and port congestion. It shows that the loading rates vary between China and Asia departures, with supply pressures fluctuating over different weeks. Ship schedule adjustments and delays are common, and port congestion persists in different regions, which may impact the shipping market's operation and performance. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1. European Line Loading Rate Tracking - W34 European Line fleet's average loading rate for China departures was 90.6%, almost unchanged from the previous period (90.7%). W33 Asian departures had a loading rate of 97.3%, down 0.9% from the previous period. The loading difference between Asia and China was about 6.7%, at a historical high [5][7]. - OA's China departure loading rate was 91.6%, up 1.7% from the previous low but still in a low - stage range. PA and MSC's China departure loading rate was 93.4%, with a significant improvement. Gemini's China departure loading rate was 87.1%, down 3.6% [7]. 3.2. European Line Ship Schedules and Capacity - In September, the monthly average weekly capacity was 30.7 million TEU, with 2 TBN remaining. W36 - 37 average was 27.5 million TEU, and W37 was only 23.7 million TEU, with supply pressure significantly relieved. In the second half - month (W38 - 39), the average was 34.0 million TEU, with a surplus [11]. - In October, the monthly average weekly capacity was 26.9 million TEU, with 5 TBN remaining, slightly higher than March and similar to last year's level. However, the first half - month still had a supply surplus [11]. - Some routes had ship adjustments, such as FAL1 adding a ship in W37, and several routes having ship replacements [11]. 3.3. Ship Schedule Delays and Spot Overview - In W33, 5 ship schedules were delayed to the same week, with the delay situation similar to the previous week. The SCFIS (European Line) index closed at 1990.20 points, down 8.7% [15]. - The actual departure capacity of the Shanghai Port on the European Line in W33 was 26.7 million TEU, of which 26% was from the delayed schedules of W32 [15]. 3.4. Ship Schedule Delay Observation and Early Warning - Multiple ships from different alliances had schedule delays, with different delay days and rescheduled weeks. For example, in some weeks, ships from Gemini, OA, and MSC&PA were delayed for various periods and redirected to different weeks [17][19][23]. - Different alliances had early - warning routes. For instance, Gemini had early - warning routes like AE1, AE3, etc.; OA had FAL1, FAL3, etc.; and MSC&PA had FE4, FE6, etc. [26][28][30]. 3.5. Related Port Congestion Data - In China, Yangshan Port's average turnover time was about 1.9 days, Ningbo Port about 2.0 days, and Yantian Port about 1.6 days. Shanghai and Ningbo Ports' congestion improved but turnover times were still high [34]. - In Southeast Asia, Port Klang showed signs of congestion rebound. Singapore Port's average ship stay time was 1.5 days, and Port Klang's was 1.8 days [34]. - In Europe, problems such as summer vacations, labor shortages, railway construction, and low Rhine water levels persisted, increasing port pressure, especially in Hamburg Port [34].
永安期货集运早报-20250729
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:15
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Viewpoint - In the face of high capacity constraints and with demand gradually entering the off - season, freight rates will face pressure in the future [1][28] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Futures Contracts - EC2508 had a yesterday's charge price of 2183.2, a decline of 1.33%, a direct difference of 133.4, a yesterday's volume of 2525, a yesterday's open interest of 7369, and an open interest change of - 989 [1][28] - EC2510 had a price of 1502.8, a decline of 1.62%, a direct difference of 813.8, a volume of 56014, and an open interest change of 717 [1][28] - EC2512 had a price of 1737.8, an increase of 1.02%, a direct difference of 578.8, and an open interest change of 79 [1][28] - EC2602 had a price of 1541.0, an increase of 1.46%, a direct difference of 775.6, and an open interest change of - 23 [1][28] - EC2604 had a price of 1370.0, an increase of 0.61%, a direct difference of 946.6, and an open interest change of - 283 [1][28] - EC2606 had a price of 1493.6, a decline of 1.61%, a direct difference of 823.0, and an open interest change of 44 [1][28] Month - to - Month Spread - EC2508 - 2510: The previous day's spread was 680.4, with a daily change of - 4.7 and a weekly change of - 21.3 [1][28] - EC2510 - 2512: The previous day's spread was - 235.0, with a daily change of - 42.3 and a weekly change of - 74.3 [1][28] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's spread was 196.8, with a daily change of - 4.6 and a weekly change of - 51.4 [1][28] Shipping Indexes - SCEIS (updated every Monday, as of 2025/7/28): 2316.56 points, a decline of 3.50% from the previous period and 0.89% from the period before the previous one [1][28] - SCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 2090 dollars/TEU, an increase of 0.53% from the previous period and a decline of 0.95% in the next period [1][28] - CCFI (updated every Friday, as of 2025/7/25): 1787.24, a decline of 0.90% from the previous period and an increase of 4.46% in the next period [1][28] - NCFI (updated every week - nine, as of 2025/7/25): 1422.9, a decline of 1.20% from the previous period and an increase of 0.35% in the next period [1][28] - TCI (as of 2025/7/18): 1054.56 points, a decline of 0.75% from the previous period and no change in the next period [1][28] European Line Supply and Demand - The average capacities in August and September (temporarily) are 325,000 and 324,000 TEU respectively. The capacities in week32/33/34/35 are 330,000, 305,000, 350,000, and 316,000 TEU respectively, with high capacity pressure, especially in the second half of August [1][28] - There is a situation of transfer from the US line in the European line schedule. Supported by the base cargo volume of shipping companies, the loading rate of shipping companies in July did not face much pressure. In early August, the base cargo still provides some support, but the cargo volume is gradually weakening and entering the off - season [1][28] Recent European Line Quotations - In July, the quotations remained stable at around 2400 points [2][29] - In August, the PA alliance's price dropped by 200 - 300 to 3100 dollars, MSK's price decreased slightly at the beginning of the cabin opening (2900 - 3000 dollars) and then increased slightly, and OA continued to use 3400 - 3500 dollars. The price in week31 landed at about 3300 dollars (equivalent to 2300 points on the futures market) [2][29] Related News - On 7/28, the US - EU trade agreement may lead to a long - term pause in interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank, increasing the risk of no further interest rate cuts [3][30] - On 7/29, Israel is considering a full - scale military occupation of the Gaza Strip [3][30] - On 7/29, the US State Department refused to hold a "two - state solution" meeting on the Gaza issue [3][30] - On 7/29, the German government will approve a 2026 budget including a record investment of 126.7 billion euros to revitalize its sluggish economy [3][30]