人民财讯12月18日电，欧洲央行将存款利率维持在2.00%不变，维持主要再融资利率在2.15%不变，将 边际贷款利率维持在2.40%不变。 ...

Core Insights - Eurozone's private sector activity expanded at the fastest pace in two and a half years, with the composite PMI revised up to 52.8, marking a 30-month high and remaining above the neutral line of 50.0 for the sixth consecutive month [1] - The growth was primarily driven by the services sector, which saw the services PMI rise to 53.6, the highest level since May 2023, with new business growth accelerating to the fastest rate in 18 months [1] - There is a notable divergence at the country level, with Ireland achieving its highest growth rate in three and a half years, while Germany experienced a decline from a 29-month high in October [1] Economic Activity - The services sector showed clear signs of recovery, with strong performance offsetting weaknesses in manufacturing, leading to a slight increase in economic output compared to the previous month [1] - Employment in the Eurozone continued to increase in November, although the pace of growth slowed, with service sector hiring persisting while manufacturing firms experienced the fastest rate of layoffs since April [2] Inflation and Costs - Input costs rose at the fastest pace in eight months, driven by increased procurement costs for manufacturers and accelerated service sector expenses, although the ability of businesses to pass on costs to customers weakened [2] - The preliminary year-on-year harmonized CPI for November was reported at 2.2%, slightly above the European Central Bank's (ECB) medium-term target of 2% [2] - The ECB officials expressed satisfaction with the current interest rate levels, indicating a strong macroeconomic outlook that supports market confidence in maintaining rates unchanged in the coming months [2]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to lower interest rates and may not need to do so further this year [1][2] - The ECB maintained its interest rates in the last meeting, indicating that the current policy is "good" and showing resilience, with inflation stable at target levels [1][2] - Investor confidence is reinforced as the market believes there will be no further rate cuts this year, with only a one-third chance of a rate cut in 2026 [1][2] - The meeting minutes emphasized the value of waiting for more information, stating that the current policy rate is robust enough to handle shocks [1][2] - Some officials believe that the rate-cutting cycle may have ended unless risks materialize, which could lead to favorable prospects or continuation [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is not in a hurry to cut interest rates due to high uncertainty, indicating that further rate cuts may not be necessary [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Policy** - The ECB maintained interest rates at the last meeting, stating that the current policy is in a "good state" as the economy shows resilience and inflation remains stable at target levels [1] - Investors are confident that there will be no further rate cuts this year, with the market now estimating only a one-third chance of a rate cut in 2026 [1] - **Economic Outlook** - The minutes from the meeting suggest that the current policy rate is considered robust enough to handle economic shocks [1] - Some officials believe that the rate-cutting cycle may have already ended, indicating a shift in the ECB's approach to monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's business activity shows steady growth in November, indicating economic resilience, with improved business confidence suggesting continued momentum and a balanced inflation outlook, potentially leading the European Central Bank (ECB) to stabilize interest rates by 2026 [1][6]. Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's November composite PMI slightly decreased from October's two-year high of 52.5 to 52.4, remaining above the 50 mark, indicating ongoing economic expansion [2]. - The services sector's PMI rose to 53.1 in November, the fastest growth in 18 months, supported by robust new orders, while employment growth was cautious [2]. - Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.7, indicating a return to contraction, with new orders and employment both declining, suggesting a lack of clear direction in the sector [2]. Country-Specific Insights - Germany's November composite PMI dropped to 52.1, with manufacturing PMI falling to 48.4, reflecting a significant decline in new orders, particularly in exports [3]. - France's November composite PMI improved to 49.9, nearing stability after over a year of decline, with services PMI rising to 50.8, indicating a slight recovery in business activity [4]. ECB Outlook - The ECB is expected to maintain interest rates through December and into next year, supported by resilient economic growth and improved business confidence [6][7]. - ECB officials have indicated that current interest rates are appropriate, with a focus on balancing inflation risks and economic performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde signaled that there will be no reduction in key interest rates in the coming months [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Lagarde reiterated that the current interest rate level is in a "comfortable range," reinforcing the rationale for maintaining stable rates [1] - The expectation is that the ECB will keep the deposit rate at 2% at least until the end of next year [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The potential new Fed chair candidate, Reed, suggests that Powell's stance is more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of skipping a rate cut in December, potentially delaying further easing measures into the new year [1][2] - Nomura Securities has retracted its prediction for a December rate cut after Powell's press conference indicated that a December hike is not guaranteed, with current market expectations for a rate cut by year-end at approximately 72%, down from 91% prior to the Fed's decision [1][2] - CICC estimates that the Fed still has room for three more rate cuts, but the pace of cuts may slow down, influenced by government shutdowns and economic data releases [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook - Danske Bank indicates that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, with data aligning closely with expectations, although there are growing divergences among members regarding inflation outlooks [3] - ECB President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm a data-dependent approach to decision-making, while the market may be pricing in upward risks for potential rate cuts [3] Group 3: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy - Mizuho Bank emphasizes that the BoJ is committed to a gradual normalization of its policy stance, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future policy changes [4] - State Street Global Advisors notes that the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike increases if global trade uncertainties are better assessed, with potential adjustments expected in the coming meetings [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - HSBC's Australian division reports that unexpected increases in core inflation have fundamentally altered the outlook for official interest rates, with expectations for a rate hike potentially occurring in early 2027 [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that ECB's Gabriel Makhlouf is more concerned about inflation rates exceeding 2% rather than falling below it, despite current inflation being close to the target [1][2] - Makhlouf highlights that food inflation has been rising, currently around 3%, which is an area of particular concern [1] - He emphasizes that as long as medium-term inflation expectations remain anchored around 2%, the temporary dip below this target is not problematic [1] Group 2 - Makhlouf's comments reflect a cautious stance among policymakers regarding economic uncertainties, including tariffs, increased fiscal spending, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which could influence inflation in various directions [2] - He believes that inflation risks are "slightly skewed to the upside," contrasting with other ECB officials who see balanced risks [2] - Recent economic data has increased his confidence in the ECB's September forecasts, which predict GDP growth of 1.2% and 1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [2] Group 3 - The ECB has maintained interest rates since June, with officials stating that the current 2% level appears appropriate, and analysts see little likelihood of further easing in the short term [2] - Makhlouf agrees with the market's assessment that the ECB is likely at a stage of achieving its targets, while acknowledging ongoing uncertainties [2][3] - Some ECB officials still consider the possibility of further rate cuts, with the French central bank governor suggesting that if action is needed, a rate cut is more likely than a hike due to greater downside risks [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair is currently facing selling pressure, retreating to the 1.1740-1.1730 range due to a rebound in the US dollar and disappointing ADP employment data, despite a slight improvement in ISM manufacturing PMI data [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Euro/USD pair struggles to maintain upward momentum, with resistance at 1.1800 [3]. - The next resistance level for bulls is at 1.1918, with a potential test of the psychological level at 1.2000 if this area is breached. Conversely, a drop below the weekly low of 1.1645 could expose the 100-day simple moving average at 1.1605, followed by the weekly low of 1.1574 and the August low of 1.1391 [4]. - Momentum indicators show mixed signals, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above the 50 threshold, indicating a loss of control by buyers. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is near 14, suggesting a lack of strength in the current trend [4]. Fundamental Overview - Recent economic data includes a decrease in Eurozone unemployment by 4.846K, against a consensus of 15.400K, while the unemployment rate remains at 6.0% [6]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions include a 25 basis point rate cut, acknowledging a weak labor market while emphasizing that inflation remains "slightly high." The updated dot plot indicates a dovish stance, with expectations for an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end [8][9]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained stable interest rates, with officials assessing that inflation is tracking towards a mid-term target of around 2%. The core inflation rate is projected to average 2.4% in 2025, declining to 1.8% by 2027 [11][12]. Trade Tensions - Trade remains a critical risk factor, with a temporary truce between Washington and Beijing easing tensions, although high tariffs persist. The US continues to impose a 30% tariff on Chinese imports, while China maintains a 10% tariff on US goods. Additionally, a recent agreement between the US and EU has led to reduced tariffs on industrial goods, but issues regarding automobile tariffs remain unresolved [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the US within the year is further strengthened, with the A - share market rising on heavy volume, and the bond market showing fluctuations. The prices of various commodities are influenced by macro - economic data, industry fundamentals, and geopolitical risks, showing different trends such as high - level oscillations, upward or downward trends [2][3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The non - over - expected CPI and cold initial jobless claims in the US in August strengthened the interest rate cut trading. The US 8 - month CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1%, both in line with expectations and flat compared to July. The initial jobless claims rose to 263,000, hitting a more than two - year high. The market pricing of three interest rate cuts within the year was strengthened, the US dollar index fell to 97.5, the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to the 4.0% mark, and US stocks reached new highs. The eurozone central bank maintained interest rates unchanged in September and raised growth and inflation expectations [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose on heavy volume, with over 4000 stocks rising and the trading volume reaching 2.4 trillion. The ChiNext and STAR Market led the gains. The bond market fluctuated sharply, with the unilateral rise of A - shares suppressing the bond market, but the marginal loosening of the capital side and the discussion of the central bank's restart of bond - buying drove the bond market to stop falling and rebound [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices closed mixed on Thursday. COMEX gold futures fell 0.23% to $3673.40 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.12% to $42.07 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut was strengthened, but the international gold price slightly declined due to long - position closing. It is expected that gold and silver prices will maintain a high - level oscillation before the Fed's interest rate cut on the 18th [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upwards, and London copper approached the previous high of the year. The consumption in the domestic peak season is expected to return, and the market continues to bet on 2 - 3 interest rate cuts within the year. It is expected that copper prices will enter an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,915 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The LME closed at $2622/ton, up 0.21%. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods are both in the process of destocking, indicating that the peak - season consumption is gradually being realized. The short - term macro - environment and fundamentals are both positive, and aluminum prices will continue to show a strong performance [8][9]. 3.5 Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2945 yuan/ton, up 0.79%. The supply - side pressure of alumina still exists, and the market is dominated by a bearish atmosphere. It continues to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the cost support [10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and shifted slightly upward at night. The social inventory in China continues to increase, which exerts pressure on zinc prices, but the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. With the gradual recovery of consumption, destocking is still expected. Zinc prices will operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [11]. 3.7 Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and opened lower and moved higher at night. The high inventory exerts pressure on lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a weak oscillation before consumption improves [12]. 3.8 Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated horizontally during the day and showed a strong oscillation at night. The low - level LME inventory still supports tin prices. It is expected that tin prices will follow the non - ferrous metal sector to repair with a strong oscillation in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply side shows a passive contraction trend, and the demand side has different performances in each link. The industrial silicon social inventory continues to decline, and the spot market stabilizes. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillation in the short term [15][16]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, the price of lithium carbonate oscillated, and the spot price weakened. The short - term market still focuses on the resource game around the lithium mine event. Although the spot inventory is being destocked, more resources are flowing to the exchange. The lithium price may oscillate around the resource game [17]. 3.11 Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated strongly. The US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the inflation pressure slows down. The market's expectation of the Fed's subsequent interest rate cut path is more dovish. The nickel price may oscillate strongly driven by the macro - environment [18][19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Thursday, the oil price oscillated. The views of OPEC and IEA are divergent. The market may be more inclined to the IEA's view, and the expectation of supply surplus may put pressure on oil prices in the medium and long term. However, short - term geopolitical risks are rising, and it is expected that the oil price will oscillate [20][21]. 3.13 Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The steel production decreased, the inventory continued to accumulate, and the supply - demand relationship was not good. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. 3.14 Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and declined. The iron ore price is affected by poor terminal demand and weak steel prices. The supply side is shrinking, and there is still a replenishment expectation in mid - to - late September. It is expected that iron ore will oscillate [24]. 3.15 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 0.78%, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 0.98%. The market expects the NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August to reach a record high for the same period. The net sales of US soybeans for export are slow. It is expected that the domestic continuous meal will oscillate in the short term [25][26]. 3.16 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 01 contract of palm oil fell 0.11%. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in early September decreased month - on - month, providing support for prices. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust in the short term [27][28]. 3.17 Metal Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and positions of various metal futures contracts on September 11, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [29] 3.18 Industrial Data - The report presents detailed industrial data for various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes from September 10 to 11 [30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37]