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原油成品油早报-20250827
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 05:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight rebound in absolute prices on Friday. The peak of summer crude oil demand is ending, and the inflection point of the crude oil fundamentals has emerged. South American supply has been delivered as expected. The market is focusing on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations and the implementation of the US "punishment" measures against India for buying Russian oil. [6] - On August 21, India stated that it would continue to purchase Russian oil, eliminating the risk of an embargo, but trade frictions still have uncertainties. On Thursday, the US announced a new round of sanctions against Iran, involving two Chinese companies. The potential impact of this round of sanctions is significant, and subsequently, the Dubai market's monthly spread strengthened. [6] - From a macro perspective, the expectation of an interest rate cut in the US in September is rising, and the macro sentiment is positive, supporting the absolute price. Fundamentally, global oil inventories are slightly decreasing, US commercial inventories are decreasing, gasoline inventories are decreasing, and diesel inventories are increasing. This week, the refining profits of European and American refineries have strengthened, and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel have also strengthened. [6] - Currently, refineries are at the peak of their operation. The latest estimate is that refinery maintenance in October worldwide will exceed previous years' levels (in Europe and Africa), and the crude oil monthly spread is expected to be under pressure. In the short term, the absolute price of crude oil is expected to remain oscillating with a slight upward trend, with Brent crude oil in the range of $65 - $70. In the medium term, the absolute price is expected to weaken, and the price will fall to $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Due to the expected adjustment of autumn maintenance in Europe, the crack spread price of European diesel in the fourth quarter is expected to be raised. [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - From August 20 - 26, 2025, the prices of WTI, BRENT, DUBAI, and other oil - related products fluctuated. For example, WTI decreased by $1.55, BRENT decreased by $1.58, and DUBAI decreased by $0.27. [3] - The prices of domestic gasoline increased by 20 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 25 yuan. [3] - The price of Japan's naphtha CFR increased, and the spread between Japan's naphtha CFR and BRENT increased by 19.11. [3] 3.2 Daily News - The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending August 22 was - 974,000 barrels, lower than the expected - 1,725,000 barrels and the previous value of - 2,417,000 barrels. [3] - Russia has increased its August crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day due to refinery attacks, but there are uncertainties in export arrangements. [3] - India plans to reduce its Russian oil purchases in the coming weeks as the US is about to impose tariffs. The expected daily purchase volume in October and later will be 1.4 - 1.6 million barrels, compared with an average daily purchase of 1.8 million barrels in the first half of this year. [4] - Iran's crude oil export volume in August has declined, with an average daily export of about 1.5 million barrels so far this month, down from 1.7 million barrels from March - May, affected by domestic demand and US sanctions. [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - For the week ending August 15, US crude oil exports increased by 795,000 barrels per day to 4.372 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 55,000 barrels to 13.382 million barrels per day. [5] - US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 6.014 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a decrease of 1.41%. The strategic petroleum reserve increased by 223,000 barrels to 403.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.06%. [5] - From August 15 - 22, the operating rate of major refineries in China decreased, while the operating rate of Shandong's local refineries increased slightly. The weekly production of gasoline and diesel from Chinese refineries decreased, gasoline inventories decreased, and diesel inventories increased. The comprehensive profits of major refineries and local refineries decreased. [5]