Core Viewpoint - European stock markets are facing challenges after a strong rebound in the first half of the year, with limited upside potential as they consolidate within a narrow range [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Stoxx Europe 600 index is expected to end the year around 554 points, indicating only about a 2% increase from current levels [1]. - The market is currently in a waiting period, balancing optimism for cyclical acceleration in 2026 against uncertainties from trade negotiations and the second-quarter earnings season [4]. Group 2: Trade and Currency Impact - Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs on EU exports, is a significant concern for the market, with a potential 30% tariff looming [3]. - The euro has appreciated by 12% against the dollar this year, which has pressured profit margins for European companies [4]. - UBS strategist noted that the earnings forecasts for European companies have largely accounted for a potential 20% tariff on U.S. goods [4]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Major European companies, including BASF and Renault, have issued profit warnings or reported disappointing earnings, reflecting concerns over tariffs and currency challenges [3]. - Analysts predict that the Stoxx 600 index could rise by 5% by year-end, driven by a rebound in earnings growth in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Divergence in Sentiment - There is a notable contrast between the cautious outlook of strategists and the optimism of fund managers, with a significant portion of fund managers expecting further gains in European stocks [7]. - A recent survey indicated that 41% of fund managers are overweight on European equities, the highest level in four years, driven by expectations of increased government spending in the EU [7]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - Despite short-term challenges, the underlying fundamentals of the European economy show resilience, with economic surprise indices nearing yearly highs [7]. - Investor confidence in Germany has improved, suggesting the economy's ability to withstand U.S. tariff threats [7].

来源： 新华社 新华社布鲁塞尔6月24日电（记者康逸）英国《金融时报》24日报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德 莱恩的幕僚长比约恩·塞伯特表示，在7月9日欧美贸易谈判最后期限之前，欧盟内部需协调好 立场，做好对美采取更多关税反制措施的准备，以对美形成"切实威胁"。 塞伯特表示，冯德莱恩准备对美采取关税反制升级措施，以争取更好的协议。他希望欧盟成 员国支持对价值950亿欧元的美国商品征收一揽子关税的方案，并表示欧盟也在准备针对服务 业的措施，包括对美国科技公司征税，以及限制美国企业获得公共采购合同。 冯德莱恩日前曾表示，在谈判中，如果涉及到欧盟及其成员国的主权决策过程，这是美方"不 可触碰的"。 德国总理默茨强调，德国政府将支持对美采取更强硬的措施。他说，如果欧美之间没有达成 协议，德方将采取多种应对措施，捍卫自身利益。若当前贸易争端进一步升级，将不利于任 何一方。 目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关税，对几乎所有其他商品 征收10%基准关税。美国总统特朗普还威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没有取得突破， 他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 作为回应，欧盟曾决定对美国总额210亿欧元的进口产品加 ...