Core Viewpoint - European stock markets are facing challenges after a strong rebound in the first half of the year, with limited upside potential as they consolidate within a narrow range [1][3]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The Stoxx Europe 600 index is expected to end the year around 554 points, indicating only about a 2% increase from current levels [1]. - The market is currently in a waiting period, balancing optimism for cyclical acceleration in 2026 against uncertainties from trade negotiations and the second-quarter earnings season [4]. Group 2: Trade and Currency Impact - Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding U.S. tariffs on EU exports, is a significant concern for the market, with a potential 30% tariff looming [3]. - The euro has appreciated by 12% against the dollar this year, which has pressured profit margins for European companies [4]. - UBS strategist noted that the earnings forecasts for European companies have largely accounted for a potential 20% tariff on U.S. goods [4]. Group 3: Earnings Outlook - Major European companies, including BASF and Renault, have issued profit warnings or reported disappointing earnings, reflecting concerns over tariffs and currency challenges [3]. - Analysts predict that the Stoxx 600 index could rise by 5% by year-end, driven by a rebound in earnings growth in 2026 [4]. Group 4: Divergence in Sentiment - There is a notable contrast between the cautious outlook of strategists and the optimism of fund managers, with a significant portion of fund managers expecting further gains in European stocks [7]. - A recent survey indicated that 41% of fund managers are overweight on European equities, the highest level in four years, driven by expectations of increased government spending in the EU [7]. Group 5: Economic Resilience - Despite short-term challenges, the underlying fundamentals of the European economy show resilience, with economic surprise indices nearing yearly highs [7]. - Investor confidence in Germany has improved, suggesting the economy's ability to withstand U.S. tariff threats [7].

来源： 新华社 新华社布鲁塞尔6月24日电（记者康逸）英国《金融时报》24日报道，欧盟委员会主席冯德 莱恩的幕僚长比约恩·塞伯特表示，在7月9日欧美贸易谈判最后期限之前，欧盟内部需协调好 立场，做好对美采取更多关税反制措施的准备，以对美形成"切实威胁"。 塞伯特表示，冯德莱恩准备对美采取关税反制升级措施，以争取更好的协议。他希望欧盟成 员国支持对价值950亿欧元的美国商品征收一揽子关税的方案，并表示欧盟也在准备针对服务 业的措施，包括对美国科技公司征税，以及限制美国企业获得公共采购合同。 冯德莱恩日前曾表示，在谈判中，如果涉及到欧盟及其成员国的主权决策过程，这是美方"不 可触碰的"。 德国总理默茨强调，德国政府将支持对美采取更强硬的措施。他说，如果欧美之间没有达成 协议，德方将采取多种应对措施，捍卫自身利益。若当前贸易争端进一步升级，将不利于任 何一方。 目前，美国对欧盟钢铝产品征收50%关税，对汽车领域征收25%关税，对几乎所有其他商品 征收10%基准关税。美国总统特朗普还威胁称，如果7月9日前美欧贸易谈判没有取得突破， 他将对欧盟商品征收50%关税。 作为回应，欧盟曾决定对美国总额210亿欧元的进口产品加 ...

Core Points - The European Union has imposed fines totaling €700 million on Apple and Meta, which may escalate trade tensions between the EU and the Trump administration [1] - Apple was fined €500 million (approximately $570 million), while Meta was fined €200 million [1] - The EU has issued injunctions against both companies, targeting their significant revenue-generating business practices, which may have a more substantial impact than the fines [1] Company-Specific Actions - The EU has ordered Apple to remove technical and commercial restrictions that prevent app developers from informing users about cheaper and alternative ways to purchase digital products outside of the Apple App Store [1] - The EU is still evaluating whether Meta's option for European users to view "less personalized ads" on Instagram and Facebook without paying subscription fees complies with the injunction [1]