Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a robust growth in new business value (NBV) for 2025, increasing by 15% year-on-year, primarily driven by the Hong Kong market [1] Group 1: Hong Kong Market Performance - The NBV in the Hong Kong market grew by 28% year-on-year, making it the largest market driving the company's overall NBV growth [1] - The growth in the Hong Kong market was supported by a 35% increase in NBV from mainland visitors and a 21% increase from local residents [1] - The agent channel saw a 26% increase in NBV, driven by a 9% rise in the number of active agents and a 14% increase in productivity [1] - The bancassurance channel experienced a 41% increase in NBV, while the intermediary partner distribution achieved a 49% growth due to a low base in 2024 [1] - The NBV profit margin in Hong Kong rose by 3.0 percentage points to 68.5%, the highest level in over a decade [1] - The company expects a 27% growth in the Hong Kong market's NBV for 2026 [1] Group 2: Mainland China Market Impact - The mainland China market's NBV only grew by 2% year-on-year due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2] - The second half of 2025 saw a significant acceleration in growth, with a 14% increase compared to a 4% decline in the first half [2] - The agent channel remains crucial, contributing 85% of the NBV in 2025 [2] - New regional markets achieved a 45% increase in NBV, accounting for over 9% of total NBV, with a projected CAGR of 40% from 2025 to 2030 [2] - The mainland market is expected to see a 17% growth in NBV for 2026 [2] Group 3: Southeast Asia Market Trends - The NBV in Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia grew by 13%, 14%, and 0% respectively, indicating varied performance across these markets [2] - Thailand's market experienced a slowdown in the second half of 2025, with a 4% decline due to new regulatory policies affecting medical insurance [2] - Singapore's growth was driven by high-net-worth clients and savings products, with a 31% increase in the partner distribution channel [2] - The overall NBV growth in other markets was 7%, with strong performances from India, Vietnam, and South Korea, and an expected 5% growth for 2026 [2] Group 4: Operational Profit and Dividend Growth - The operating profit after tax (OPAT) grew by 7% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in OPAT per share due to a reduction in the number of shares outstanding [2] - The return on equity (ROE) was 15.5%, reflecting a 0.7 percentage point increase year-on-year [2] - The company announced a 10% increase in dividends per share (DPS) to HKD 1.93, with share buybacks and dividends totaling USD 2.3 billion and USD 2.4 billion respectively [2] - A new share buyback plan of USD 1.7 billion for 2026 was also announced, with expected dividends and buybacks amounting to approximately 4% of the current share price [2] Group 5: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to USD 0.72, USD 0.81, and USD 0.91 respectively [3] - The NBV is expected to grow by 16% year-on-year in 2026 [3] - The target price was raised to HKD 100, based on book value and intrinsic value methods, while maintaining a "buy" rating [3]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains AIA Group's (01299) net profit forecast for 2025-2026 and an outperform rating, raising the target price (P/EV) by 12.2% to HKD 83.0, indicating a 12.0% upside from the current stock price [1] Group 1: New Business Value and Financial Performance - AIA's new business value (VONB) for 1H25 grew by 14% and 16% year-on-year under constant exchange rates (CER) and actual exchange rates (AER) respectively, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The operating profit per share (OPAT) increased by 12% year-on-year (AER and CER), while the basic free surplus per share rose by 10% (CER) and 11% (AER) [2] - The interim dividend per share increased by 10% to HKD 0.49, exceeding both CICC's and market expectations [2] Group 2: Growth Targets in New Markets - AIA's VONB in mainland China decreased by 4% (CER), but the value rate improved to 58.6%, with a target of achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in new markets from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The company aims for a VONB CAGR of approximately 15% in mainland China over the next five years, supported by a unique operating model and strong talent management [3] Group 3: Performance in Hong Kong and Other Markets - AIA's VONB in Hong Kong increased by 24% in 1H25, with both local customers and mainland tourists contributing to double-digit growth [4] - In Thailand, VONB grew by 35% year-on-year, benefiting from regulatory changes, while Singapore's VONB rose by 16% due to product adjustments [5] - Malaysia's agent channel showed signs of recovery, although it remained weak, with growth in the bancassurance channel offsetting some negative impacts [5] Group 4: Strategic Direction with New Leadership - AIA announced that Mark Tucker will return as independent non-executive chairman in October 2025, having previously served as CEO from 2010 to 2017, recognized for strong operational performance [6] - The market is advised to monitor the strategic direction, financial goals, and potential changes in investor expectations following Tucker's return [6]

机构：中金公司 研究员：毛晴晴/姚泽宇 1H25 新业务价值符合我们预期 友邦披露2025 半年报，新业务价值（VONB）在固定汇率（CER）和实际汇率（AER）下分别同比 +14%和+16%，基本符合我们和市场预期；每股营运利润（OPAT）同比+12%（AER 和CER），每股产 生的基本自由盈余同比上升10%（CER）和11%（AER），中期每股分红同比+10%至0.49港元，好于我 们和市场预期。 发展趋势 其他市场表现整体符合预期。1H25 友邦泰国VONB 同比+35%，受益于3月监管规则变化带来的一次性 购买，2Q25 保费增长相较1Q 已经有所放缓；友邦新加坡VONB 同比+16%，同样受益于2Q 产品迭代引 发的提前购买；友邦马来西亚代理人渠道VONB 较为疲软但已有复苏迹象，银保渠道的增长一定程度 抵消了上述负面影响；其他市场VONB 延续上升趋势。 关注独立主席换届后的战略方向。此前友邦公告Mark Tucker 将于2025 年10 月回归友邦担任独立非执行 主席及独立非执行董事，其曾在2010-2017年任友邦首席执行官兼总裁并取得优秀的经营业绩、受到较 多长线投资人认可，建议关注其上 ...